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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#511

Post by negura »

ericmay wrote: post #453
jjfoooo4 wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Of course, this then introduces the circular reasoning "because of a potential US attack", but of course if Iran wasn't funding Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis I think the first step of thinking about war objectively is to consider how each side sees it. The US POV is no less circular, from Iran’s perspective - they could list any number of provocations from the US to justify arming themselves, none more obvious than the…

Sure. So let's say Iran stops building up massive amounts of missiles, funding these terrorist groups, stops pursuing a nuclear weapon, stops mass killing of its own civilians, and stops helping Russia prosecute its war against Ukraine (we can even leave this optional just to not introduce additional complexities). What will the United States now have to do on its side as it pertains to Iran?

are you implying that the US share in the hostilities is only direct military intervention? because that's not correct. through their alliances, they are additionally responsible for more

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#512

Post by troad »

oa335 wrote: post #506
troad wrote: post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because every Islamic theocracy to date has been profoundly destabilising for its neighbours and the world, and always ends up imprisoning and immiserating its own people. No one wants more Irans or Afghanistans. (Or Saudi Arabias, though that's not said out loud as often.)

but neither Saudi Arabia nor Afghanistan's leaders were voted in ... and secular/socialist/monarchic dictatorships have arguably worse effects on their neighbors and citizens - e.g. Saddam, Assad, Nasser, MBZ in UAE, MBS

Yes, there are a lot of bad options in the Middle East; Islamic theocracy has no monopoly on awfulness.

I think the broader point is that a democracy is unstable when the electorate just votes for their favourite warlord / cleric, who promptly ends / rigs any further elections.

In the Middle East, there appears to be a pattern of electorates voting for / staging a revolution in favour of Islamists, which either leads to a terrible Islamist regime, or leads to an elite coup, which of course destroys the democracy in the process. Worst case scenario all of this happens at once in different places, and you get a terrible civil war.

Democracy is great, but it requires an electorate that actually wants to sustain and retain a democracy. Those appear to be few and far in between.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#513

Post by negura »

ericmay wrote: post #407
watwut wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a game. And this war happened because Israel and USA assumed Iran is weak. This had squat zero with acute danger of military buildup. This happened because Hegseth thought Iran will fold and found it super unfair they did not. > Separately, you can just ask: why are they even stockpiling missiles in the first place? To protect themselves when America starta Another war. It cant go without war for long. As b…

Iran is weak compared to the United States. The war wasn't started because Iran is weak, it was started because Iran is engaging in various activities that have effects in the world that the United States finds unacceptable. > To protect themselves when America starta Another war. Yet, only Iran has to protect themselves. Why is that? Well it's because they're doing bad things, and they know that we may do something…

> Stop making excuses and defending brutal authoritarian dictatorships.

this style of argument really falls flat in 2026 tho. at least for a global audience. it seems you don't appreciate how much america's image as a champion in good faith of freedom, democracy and prosperity has been shattered. not least because the old neoliberal guard has been busy undermining it (see carney's speech at WEF, where he started by pointing out that not only was the rules based order a lie, but that it is no longer acceptable to pretend otherwise). but now also because US aggression is perceived as directly responsible for the global energy crisis, which is affecting everyone else. america simply doesn't have a high horse to get on anymore

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#514

Post by negura »

oa335 wrote: post #498
ericmay wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> threatened civilisation destruction Iran threatens to erase Israel and the United States off the map pretty much daily. So I just don't care that Trump did the same back to them. If they don't like threats like that, perhaps they should stop issuing them yea? > murdered political leaders and attacked BOTH civilian and military infrastructure What civilian infrastructure was deliberately attacked? We do know that Ir…

> What civilian infrastructure was deliberately attacked? Its clear you have only been getting your information from a certain set of sources. a lot of civilian infrastructure has been destroyed in Iran. One of Israel's goals is to cripple the economy of Iran. "Israeli leaders, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, have ordered the military to carry out strikes on targets that cause economic blows to the Iranian re…

and let's not forget the boming of a literal school for girls

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#515

Post by sysguest »

huntertwo wrote: post #494
grumple wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Even when Israel strikes first, someone else started it. Brilliant!

hmm isn't the whole thing a continuation of "revenge against hamas's attack on Oct 7th 2023" ?

hamas being a proxy to iran, I don't get why people think iran as some "peace loving, innocent country"

well, are they?

raping/killing some *foreigners* and displaying their bodies as parade...

well that's not very "peace loving and innocent" is it?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#516

Post by oa335 »

troad wrote: post #512
oa335 wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but neither Saudi Arabia nor Afghanistan's leaders were voted in ... and secular/socialist/monarchic dictatorships have arguably worse effects on their neighbors and citizens - e.g. Saddam, Assad, Nasser, MBZ in UAE, MBS

Yes, there are a lot of bad options in the Middle East; Islamic theocracy has no monopoly on awfulness. I think the broader point is that a democracy is unstable when the electorate just votes for their favourite warlord / cleric, who promptly ends / rigs any further elections. In the Middle East, there appears to be a pattern of electorates voting for / staging a revolution in favour of Islamists, which either leads…

> In the Middle East, there appears to be a pattern of electorates voting for / staging a revolution in favour of Islamists, which either leads to a terrible Islamist regime, or leads to an elite coup, which of course destroys the democracy in the process.

that pattern is hardly unique to middle east/islamists though. look at central/south america. guatemala, chile, brazil etc all had democracies overthrown by "elite" coups.

like almost every instance in the middle east, there is actually a common denominator between these coups... resistance to the US-led order magically seems to invite instability.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#517

Post by troad »

oa335 wrote: post #516
troad wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, there are a lot of bad options in the Middle East; Islamic theocracy has no monopoly on awfulness. I think the broader point is that a democracy is unstable when the electorate just votes for their favourite warlord / cleric, who promptly ends / rigs any further elections. In the Middle East, there appears to be a pattern of electorates voting for / staging a revolution in favour of Islamists, which either leads…

> In the Middle East, there appears to be a pattern of electorates voting for / staging a revolution in favour of Islamists, which either leads to a terrible Islamist regime, or leads to an elite coup, which of course destroys the democracy in the process. that pattern is hardly unique to middle east/islamists though. look at central/south america. guatemala, chile, brazil etc all had democracies overthrown by "elite…

That seems rather Whataboutist to me. I never claimed this only ever happens in the Middle East. We are, however, talking about the Middle East, so local examples would seem apposite. You seem to desire to make this conversation so abstract that it becomes about nothing.

> resistance to the US-led order magically seems to invite instability

Or perhaps 'resistance' is an awfully popular rallying cry for demagogues who bring instability, and the US is just the hegemon du jour. "It's the US' fault your crops are wilting! And international capital! And immigrants! And, oh, I don't know, the gays, why not. Rise up for El Generalissimo! Enlist your sons in the blood struggle, that will definitely improve things!" /s

Much sexier to be a revolutionary fighting shadowy foreign forces than to actually fix any of your own problems. No, no, tomorrow's problems will be America's fault too.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#518

Post by greenavocado »

Havoc wrote: post #163
eightysixfour wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan That is just UAE pressure to make sure they get their dollar swap deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currenc...

Indeed it’s leverage but at same time they only need the swap because all is not well in petrodollar land.

They may think it's leverage until they are glassed by the empire for not toeing the line

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#519

Post by huntertwo »

sysguest wrote: post #515
huntertwo wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even when Israel strikes first, someone else started it. Brilliant!

hmm isn't the whole thing a continuation of "revenge against hamas's attack on Oct 7th 2023" ? hamas being a proxy to iran, I don't get why people think iran as some "peace loving, innocent country" well, are they? raping/killing some *foreigners* and displaying their bodies as parade... well that's not very "peace loving and innocent" is it?

When you make a ceasefire and then strike first, that’s called being the aggressor.

How many civilians has Israel killed since oct 7? When is it enough?

Israel killed >50k civilians since October 7 between all the conflicts

Revenge is not a justification for destroying civilizations.

Israelis also rape, kill, and do other vile things to prisoners, innocent or guilty, who they imprison with or without charge.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#520

Post by oa335 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

"Emirati-Israeli axis"

I'd add the US to that as well. Both the UAE and Israel are highly (practically solely) dependent on US for their military tech and supplies.

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