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ML promises to be profoundly weird

aphyr.com

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Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#511
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prior to the industrial revolution, the natural world was nearly infinitely abundant. We simply weren't efficient enough to fully exploit it. This is just wildly incorrect. People started running out of trees during the early Iron Age. Woodlands have been a managed and often over exploited resource for a long time. Active agriculture vs passive woodlands vs animal grazing has been in constant tension for thousands…

The general point is accurate, don’t take it so literally. There were more than enough trees until we developed the technology to clear cut in expeditious manner. There were more than enough fish until we developed the technology to pull massive indiscriminate amounts out of the ocean (and/or started polluting our rivers with industry). There was more than enough topsoil until we developed mechanized plows and artifi…

> The general point is accurate, don’t take it so literally.

It's not, because the Malthusian trap was all too real going into modernity, as in recurring famines were a thing, they were quite real, nothing "literal" about them.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you know, I deeply respect you. Not trying to argue here, just provide my own perspective: > Why would a writer put an article online if ChatGPT will slurp it up and regurgitate it back to users without anyone ever even finding the original article? I write things for two main reasons: I feel like I have to. I need to create things. On some level, I would write stuff down even if nobody reads it (and I do do that…

Agreed, totally! I still write and put stuff online. But it definitely feels different now. It used to feel like I was tending a public garden filled with other people who might enjoy it. It still kind of feels like that, but there are a handful of giant combine machines grinding their way around the garden harvesting stuff and making billionaires richer at the same time. It's not enough to dissuade me from contribut…

I like the garden analogy.

Writing online used to bring you readers. Now it trains model, which answers the same questions without sending anyone to your site.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#513
post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and while I agree humans can make similar mistakes/confabulations, I overwhelmingly feel that there is no "there" there. What really opened my eyes a couple weeks ago (anyone can try this): I asked Sonnet to write an inference engine for Qwen3, from scratch, without any dependencies, in pure C. I gave it GGUF specs for parsing (to quickly load existing models) and Qwen3's architecture description. The idea was to se…

>And you know what, Qwen3's entire forward pass is just 50 lines of very simple code (mostly vector-matrix multiplications). The code being simple doesn't mean much when all the complexity is encoded in billions of learned weights. The forward pass is just the execution mechanism. Conflating its brevity with simplicity of the underlying computation is a basic misunderstanding of what a forward pass actually is. What…

>The code being simple doesn't mean much when all the complexity is encoded in billions of learned weights. The forward pass is just the execution mechanism. Conflating its brevity with simplicity of the underlying computation is a basic misunderstanding of what a forward pass actually is. What you've just said is the equivalent of saying blackbox.py is simple because 'python blackbox.py' only took 1 line. It's just silly reasoning.

Look at what a transformer actually does. Attention is a straightforward dictionary look up in like 3 matmuls. A FFN is a simple space transform rule with a non-linear cutoff to adjust the signal (i.e. a few more matmuls and an activation function) before doing a new dictionary lookup in the next transformer block. Add a few tricks like residual connections, output projections, and repeat N times.

So yeah, the actual inference code is 50 lines of code, and the rest is large learned dictionaries to search in, with some transforms. So you're saying my one-liner program that consults a DB with 1 million rows is actually 1 million lines of code? Well, not quite.

This trick, coupled with lots of prelearned templates, is enough to fool people into believing there's "there" there (the OP's post above). Just like ELIZA back in the day. Well, apparently this trick is enough to solve lots of problems, because apparently lots of problems only require search in a known problem (template) space (also with reduced dimensionality). But it's still just a fancy search algorithm. I think the whole thing about "emergent behavior" is that when a human is confronted with a huge prelearned concept space, it's so large they cannot digest what is actually happening, and tend to ascribe magical properties to it like "intelligence" or "consciousness". Like, for example, imagine if there was a huge precreated IF..THEN table for every possible question/answer pair a finite human might ask in their lifetime. It would appear to the human there's intelligence, that there's "there" there. But at the end of the day it would be just a static table with nothing really interesting happening inside of it. A transformer is just a nice trick that allows to compress this huge IF..THEN table into a few hundreds gigabytes.

>So ? I can pick the least likely token every time. The result would be garbage but that doesn't say anything about the model. The popular strategy is to randomly pick from the top n choices. What do you is keeping thousands of tokens coherent and on point even with this strategy ? Why don't you try sampling without a large language model to back it and see how well that goes for you

I was referring to the OP post's:

  there is no "there" there
It doesn't even "know" what the actual text continuation must be, strictly speaking. It just returns a list of probabilities that we must select. It can't select it itself. To go from "list of probabilities" to "chatbot" requires adding additional hardcoded code (no AI involved) that greatly influences how the chatbot behaves, feels. Imagine if an actual sentient being had a button: you press it, and suddenly Steven the sailor becomes a Chinese lady who discusses Confucius. Or starts saying random gibberish. There's no independent agency whatsoever. It's all a bunch of clever tricks.

>What do you think happens when you remove or corrupt arbitrary regions of the human brain? People can lose language, vision, memory, or reasoning, sometimes catastrophically.

In an actual brain, the structure of the connectome itself drives a lot of behavior. In an LLM, all connections are static and predefined. A brain is much more resistant to failure. In an LLM changing a single hypersensitive neuron can lead to a full model collapse. There are humans who live normal lives with a full hemisphere removed.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't use tools. Like the 4th time you ignored this on purpose. That was not part of the challenge.

GPT-5.4 gets 82.7% on Browsecomp (a benchmark specifically testing tool use), which is a hallucination rate of 17.3%, on questions like "Give me the title of the scientific paper published in the EMNLP conference between 2018-2023 where the first author did their undergrad at Dartmouth College and the fourth author did their undergrad at University of Pennsylvania." Since the goalposts have been moved to include effo…

the latest top reported agentic LLMs score about 83–87%, versus an original human baseline of about 25.3% end to end, so today’s best systems appear to outperform humans by roughly 58–62 percentage points, or about 3.3–3.4×

So according to your own benchmark LLMs hallucinate much less than humans and report way higher accuracy.

Do you agree to be more skeptical of humans than LLMs on these tasks?

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, could you define what reasoning actually means? What would an AI need to do to be considered capable of reasoning? What is the core difference between what we do that is considered reasoning verse what AI currently does that is not considered reasoning? To be clear, I am not making a statement as to whether AI reasons or not. Its just slippery to say something isn't or can't do X when we can't really define X.…

In many examples, LLMs betray the fact that they are not reasoning, because when provided with problems that can be solved with the ability to reason, they fail. Even in this discussion someone provided an example of coming up with board game rules. LLMs found all board game rules valid, because they looked and sounded like board game rules. Even when they were not. In short, You can learn a subject, you can make a m…

I don’t believe the board game rules example. I think this would be a piece of cake for an llm. I’m happy to be proven wrong here if you share an example.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's an odd example of testing, but I design very complex board and card games, and LLMs are terrible at figuring out whether they make sense or really even restating the rules in a different wording. I'm positive that they are perfectly fine and will a pretty good job. Did you actually try it?

Eh, I can see their point, I think. The models can restate the rules differently, I'm sure, but it sounds like the GP is saying that LLMs can't tell whether the rules are well-balanced. It would be interesting to see some example problems along those lines. Design some games with complex rules, including one or two of the most subtle game-wrecking bugs you can think of, and ask the models if they can spot them. In fa…

I would love to see examples but I think we won’t. I’m happy to be proven wrong that an llm will do worse than a fairly smart human (without prior experience in the board game).

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The general point is accurate, don’t take it so literally. There were more than enough trees until we developed the technology to clear cut in expeditious manner. There were more than enough fish until we developed the technology to pull massive indiscriminate amounts out of the ocean (and/or started polluting our rivers with industry). There was more than enough topsoil until we developed mechanized plows and artifi…

> The general point is accurate, don’t take it so literally. It's not, because the Malthusian trap was all too real going into modernity, as in recurring famines were a thing, they were quite real, nothing "literal" about them.

Compare https://fass.nus.edu.sg/ecs/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2020/...

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#519
post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The general point is accurate, don’t take it so literally. There were more than enough trees until we developed the technology to clear cut in expeditious manner. There were more than enough fish until we developed the technology to pull massive indiscriminate amounts out of the ocean (and/or started polluting our rivers with industry). There was more than enough topsoil until we developed mechanized plows and artifi…

> There were more than enough trees until we developed the technology to clear cut in expeditious manner. Unless you mean 'an axe', way before that there were deforested areas where the need for trees was larger than the supply and there were enough humans to fell them. > A few hundred years ago or less, a squirrel could get from the Atlantic Ocean to the Mississippi River without ever touching the ground. Yes, but t…

Burning was and is a popular way to deal with trees, too.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#520
post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read Moby Dick some time my friend.

The industrial revolution is generally understood to have started somewhere around 1760, Moby Dick took place in approximately 1830, about 10 years before what some historians mark as the end of the agrarian to Industrial shift that is generally termed the Industrial revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution I get sort of wishy-washy from 1830 on, because lots of people put the end of the Industr…

> The industrial revolution is generally understood to have started somewhere around 1760,

In Britain. Moby Dick ain't set in Britain.

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