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How the AI Bubble Bursts

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Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#511

Post by jrflowers »

pydry wrote: post #488
HDThoreaun wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many examples of doctors misdiagnosing a wide variety of things, which is largely the point here. People think of doctors as infallible when that is not even close to true. Im certainly not saying fire all the radiologists, just advising an open mind when the actual literature starts saying that LLMs are as good as doctors in some areas.

There are many examples of people into homeopathy, chinese medicine and even witchcraft using an identical (not similar, identical) argument to the one you just used to push it.

Yeah that’s the pitch for Dianetics

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#513

Post by aurareturn »

ainch wrote: post #489
aurareturn wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have any evidence. You'll have to believe what Anthropic and OpenAI CEOs say publicly. However, it seems to make a lot of sense. Anthropic literally added $6b ARR in February 2026 alone. I doubt training costs go up that fast.

It's definitely true that they've increased their revenue rapidly. But at the same time the 'scaling laws' that the labs were first built around require exponentially-scaling cost (10x flops for a fixed reduction in training loss). If anything, a better look at the economics is a reason to look forward to one of them IPO-ing. I suspect the labs probably could cut R&D and turn a profit, but that might only work for on…

There is no doubt that competition is what is driving unprofitability. So when people say AI can't be monetized, I laugh. Right now, foundational AI is unprofitable because of competition, not because they can't make money.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#514

Post by PAndreew »

user34283 wrote: post #373
pydry wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The typical person is using LLMs not at all as it pertains to their daily life tasks. This doesnt track at all with my experience. Everybody is using it everywhere. Moreover people are using them for daily life tasks even when it is not an appropriate use of LLMs - e.g. getting medical advice as you referred to or writing emails which are clearly pissing off their coworkers. In this respect I see it as akin to radiu…

In my experience people vastly overestimate the competence of doctors. Getting medical advice from LLMs could be life saving. Personally I experienced this when a specialized doctor believed a drug interaction to be the opposite, thinking A hinders the absorption of B, when actually it hinders the clearance, tripling concentration of B. Without AI, I would have been clueless about this and could not have spotted the…

This^^ Use both, they have their own strengths and weaknesses.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#515

Post by eru »

philistine wrote: post #448
pigpop wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they've already built themselves a loyal customer base (which is usually the point of fighting a price war) and the customers are happy with the technology they have, then if funding is tight and turning a profit is more important why wouldn't they pivot to optimizing inference by stopping further training, freezing the model versions, burning the weights into silicon and building better caching strategies and imp…

Easier said than done. What you're describing can take years to implement. Can OpenAI et al. keep burning cash at the same rate for two years while they wait for the salvation of custom silicon if the investments dry up?

They could stop further training right this very second.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#516

Post by eru »

PAndreew wrote: post #514
user34283 wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my experience people vastly overestimate the competence of doctors. Getting medical advice from LLMs could be life saving. Personally I experienced this when a specialized doctor believed a drug interaction to be the opposite, thinking A hinders the absorption of B, when actually it hinders the clearance, tripling concentration of B. Without AI, I would have been clueless about this and could not have spotted the…

This^^ Use both, they have their own strengths and weaknesses.

And the AIs are still getting better at a good clip. I'm not so sure about (unassisted) doctors.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#517

Post by eru »

adjejmxbdjdn wrote: post #141
joshstrange wrote: post #53

> RAM prices are crashing because new models won’t need as much Reality begs to differ [0] and following the link for that text goes to an article [1] where they talk about Google's TurboQuant which supposedly will lower the RAM requirements. Now if that means RAM prices come down (as speculated, not reported on, in the link) or the AI companies just do more things with their extra ram is yet to be determined. The fa…

I’m not disagreeing with you, but consumer RAM prices are lagging indicators. If commercial RAM prices are dropping then consumers will see those price drops last, especially given the fact that several consumer manufacturers turned to commercial only.

Why would they be lagging?

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#518

Post by eru »

ffsm8 wrote: post #317
drakythe wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a source that says commercial RAM prices are dropping? I was recently told (without a source, so I am not sure if it is true or not) that OpenAI never even bought any of the RAM they signed deals on last year, and that those deals were just letters of intent. So if prices are coming down I wouldn't be shocked but the economy is pretty well vibe coded these days so who even knows.

Well, all manufacturers of ram have publicly stated that they're sold out for 2026 RAM prices falling during 2026 is insanely unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech I'm not seeing that in 2026. Maybe 2027 (I'd sincerely doubt that too, honestly), but definitely not within the next 9 months. Their runway is _way_ too large for things to spiral out of cont…

If the spot market for RAM is reasonably efficient, prices should be about as likely to fall as to increase further.

Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell.

(All of this is modulo interest rates etc to finance this.)

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#519

Post by Valakas_ »

joshstrange wrote: post #53

> RAM prices are crashing because new models won’t need as much Reality begs to differ [0] and following the link for that text goes to an article [1] where they talk about Google's TurboQuant which supposedly will lower the RAM requirements. Now if that means RAM prices come down (as speculated, not reported on, in the link) or the AI companies just do more things with their extra ram is yet to be determined. The fa…

This article and the title are total clickbait filled with emotional hooks. And it worked. You totally debunked it but look how it still became so popular.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#520

Post by Tade0 »

bluedays wrote: post #339
Tade0 wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My main worry is - once this is all over, the market consolidates and using LLMs will become a requirement in job listings, what's the highest price per million tokens companies will be able to charge us? Currently on a given day I'm chewing through approximately the equivalent of my lunch money, but where there's opportunity to extract wealth, someone will find a way to do it.

It's already a job requirement for a bunch of places, they're just not listing it. I lost out on a job recently because I haven't used cursor ai.

My friend has been looking for a job for the past few months and the other day he was given an HR LLM Agent to talk to.

He contacted the company saying he's not going to do that, to which they replied something among the lines of "sorry, that's our process".

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