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OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

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Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#511

Post by harry8 »

drivebyhooting wrote: post #425
hn_acc1 wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you now have 400Kloc of Rust code? Doing what? How much of that is "new"? I can't get Augment / Opus 4.5 to edit a few C++ files from within VSCode without going off on a wild goose chase or getting stuck in an infinite loop after I tell that it should be doing this: "oh, you're right, I need to do X", "To do X, I must understand how to do Y", "I see now that to do Y, I should look at at Z". "Let me look at Z", fo…

To be fair, humans editing C++ also go on wild goose chases. Have you seen the insanity the C++ committee has ratified?

not seeing anyone at all suggesting the work of the c++ committee is going to radicaly alter the efficiency of labour.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#512

Post by unfunco »

echelon wrote: post #240
Netcob wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once they "reach AGI", will they have a big party on a carrier with a "Mission Accomplished" banner?

[flagged]

There's no way you're reviewing 20kloc a day unless all you're doing is the Sandi Metz squint test.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#513

Post by harry8 »

danielparsons wrote: post #410
mlinsey wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adoption of web browsers was also much lower when Netscape was dominant. 90% marketshare is less meaningful if you're only 1% of the way to the potential market size. Peeling away users who talk to ChatGPT every day is very possible, but harder than getting someone whose never used an LLM before (but does use your OS, browser, phone...) to try yours first. I think the even better analogy than browsers is search engin…

google search definitely has a moat. people build their websites to optimize for google's algorithm, therefore google users see better results -> google gets more users -> websites optimize for google -> repeat. Personally I never bother with 'bing SEO' or 'bing ppc ads'.

google search took over becuse all search engines sucked and theirs didn't in a few important ways. AND by default, ads over to the side, clean interface.

Now all search engines suck and google's sucks just as bad or worse than the rest.

If someone were to follow the original google playbook and make a search engine that helped people find things (eg by respecting the query syntax rather than making 'helpful' suggestions and dropping words the user included in their query) and kept the ads separate and out of the way of results. They might well make a monster. But this is old tech so nobody cares and everyone thinks google is unassailble even while nobody likes them anymore. Is there /any/ money in search? I thought so but I must be wrong for it to get this bad.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#514

Post by eqvinox »

copx wrote: post #307
paxys wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very convenient to put "AGI" in all these agreements because the term is fundamentally undefinable. So throw out whatever numbers you want and fight about it and backtrack later.

The definition used to be "passes the Turing test" .. until LLMs passed it.

I mean… just ask about something "naughty" and they'll fail? At the very least you'd need to use setups without safeguards to pass any Turing test…

The Turing test could also be considered equivalent to "can humans come up with questions that break the AI?" and the answer to that is still yes I'd say.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#515

Post by parineum »

Aditya_Garg wrote: post #509
dangus wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re just describing how it’s circular. It’s like Toys R Us not having enough money to pay Mattel for Barbie dolls and telling Mattel they can have partial ownership of the company if they just supply them with some more toys. But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. Toys R Us continues selling toys faster and faster despite a lack of profit, m…

This is a common misconception OpenAI and others are already profitable on inference (inference is really really cheap) They are just heavily investing into the latest frontier The biggest risk is whether they can stay cutting edge, or if open source or others will catch up quickly.

At the end of the day, they're still burning cash. Even if inference is cheap, it's also not hard to compete on. They aren't going to be a trillion dollar inference company.

Eventually there will be a race to the bottom on inference price to the customer by companies that aren't trying to subsidize their GPU investments.

OpenAI is spending money because they think they need to for their business to survive. They're hoping that the next big breakthrough just requires more compute and, somehow, that'll build them a moat.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#516

Post by GolfPopper »

hirako2000 wrote: post #235
ChadNauseam wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the one hand you can look at these companies investing and take it as a signal that there is something there (in OpenAI) that's worth investing in. On the other hand all these companies that are investing are basically getting that investment back through spending commitments and such and are just using OpenAI as a proxy for what is essentially buying more revenue for themselves. I don't understand how this is s…

That's like giving them* $20. And inflate your revenue by $80. Laws on competition make this kind of arrangements illegal, so you would have to exerce influence and have the invested in company pretends you happen to have been picked among competitors. In any case the SEC will be focused on whether the filings aren't made up to fraud investors, so they could reject the IPO, of the invested in company. Your own entity…

>they have good legal goons who find way to make all of it appears fair with regards to the law

I thought it was more that the legal goons delay the final judgement until Microsoft can eventually find someone they can (technically legally) bribe to drop the case?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#517

Post by vasco »

Aditya_Garg wrote: post #509
dangus wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re just describing how it’s circular. It’s like Toys R Us not having enough money to pay Mattel for Barbie dolls and telling Mattel they can have partial ownership of the company if they just supply them with some more toys. But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. Toys R Us continues selling toys faster and faster despite a lack of profit, m…

This is a common misconception OpenAI and others are already profitable on inference (inference is really really cheap) They are just heavily investing into the latest frontier The biggest risk is whether they can stay cutting edge, or if open source or others will catch up quickly.

If you need to do the latter to be able to make money on the former, then you're not making money. Because if the latter requirement would disappear, inference margins would also drop.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#518

Post by GolfPopper »

paulcole wrote: post #438
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…

> Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years How many years total are you basing this on?

Obligatory XKCD: https://xkcd.com/605/

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#519

Post by lelanthran »

Aditya_Garg wrote: post #509
dangus wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re just describing how it’s circular. It’s like Toys R Us not having enough money to pay Mattel for Barbie dolls and telling Mattel they can have partial ownership of the company if they just supply them with some more toys. But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. Toys R Us continues selling toys faster and faster despite a lack of profit, m…

This is a common misconception OpenAI and others are already profitable on inference (inference is really really cheap) They are just heavily investing into the latest frontier The biggest risk is whether they can stay cutting edge, or if open source or others will catch up quickly.

> OpenAI and others are already profitable on inference (inference is really really cheap)

If it's that cheap I'll soon be doing it self-hosted, or switching to a local provider.

It's a race to the bottom for tokens-providers.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#520

Post by konschubert »

rvnx wrote: post #371
konschubert wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they’re getting in on the IPO. Are they going to get stock for it or is it a PIPE? Personally, I don’t think I want to get in on this at retail prices. It can both be true at the same time that AI going to disrupt our world and that being an AI lab is a terrible business.

But will you have a choice once they enter the indexes ? People are automatically going to invest into that (circular) pyramid scheme.

Yea, I’m considering divesting from msci world into single stocks
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