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How will OpenAI compete?

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Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#511

Post by hojiyaka »

jasonjmcghee wrote: post #495
WarmWash wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple has offered products with little value over competitors for a long time now, but they still get to command a large premium on their products because "the vibes are right". When engineers analyze things they look at the specs, stats, and metrics. When consumers analyze things they look at what others are doing, feel for vibes, roll into the convenience, and stick with the familiar.

> Apple has offered products with little value over competitors I'm genuinely surprised by this comment. For example, I thought there was universal sentiment that apple silicon / M-series computers are pretty unmatched.

I think the point was supposed to be default apps in an OS, similar to default search engine.. What I am missing is that OpenAI is in no way that default. Every OS, browser, etc should be able to find a more profitable default than sending someone to OpenAI.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#512

Post by re-thc »

shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

> I think OpenAI has better chance to winning on the consumer side than everyone else.

Which doesn't make money.

> Of course, would that much up against hundreds of billions of dollars in capex remains to be seen.

Most of that is a bet against enterprise adoption. Automation of customer service, sales, marketing, warehouses, medical discoveries, etc...

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#513

Post by chasd00 »

AdamN wrote: post #437
shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

I don't think they have a billion active users who opted-in. Google/Apple/Microsoft are the gatekeepers (for the most part) for retail users and they decide who is on by default. The USG isn't going to step-in and the EU won't step in either. So I suspect that Google will lean into Gemini, Microsoft will lean into OpenAI, and Apple ... it's a tough question what they do in the longer term. For business users it's a d…

> Apple ... it's a tough question what they do in the longer term.

my guess is the just keep licensing gemini and move on with making more money instead of selling 100 year bonds to raise debt.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#514

Post by gosub100 »

nextlevelwizard wrote: post #222
bandrami wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yesterday I asked mistral to list five mammals that don't have "e" in their name. Number three was "otter" and number five was "camel". phi4-mini-reasoning took the same prompt and bailed out because (at least according to its trace) it interpreted it as meaning "can't have a, e, i, o, or u in the name". Local is the only inference paradigm I'm interested in, but these things have a way to go.

I don't really see the problem here. Yeah, we know that these models are not good for actual logic. These models are lossy data compression and most-likely-responses-from-internet-forums-and-articles machines. This kind of parlor tricks are not interesting and just because a model can list animals with or without some letters in their names doesn't mean anything especially since it isn't like the model "thinks" in En…

You don't see the problem with a multi billion dollar project not able to give a correction answer to a trivial question? This tech is supposed to revolutionize business, increase productivity to unfathomable levels, automate all our dull boring tasks so we can focus on interesting things! Where have you been the past 4 years?

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#515

Post by adithyassekhar »

DrScientist wrote: post #476
adithyassekhar wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Sorry - being dim - I don't get that.

There's this thing called power of defaults.

If a setting is default, if an app is presented on the front they'll continue to use it as it is. The crowd here always overestimates how competent/interested the general public are in these things.

99.9% (source: my life) of users never even open the second level of the settings app. 99% don't even open the settings app. They don't know how much they can even change or care.

iPhones auto surfacing airpods to pair with was not for convenience it was a necessity. People don't know how to pair with bluetooth. Now android does it as well.

There's a generation that grew up with appliances that accounted for their mistakes rather than failing. There's no need to learn or understand how something works.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#516

Post by chasd00 »

rwyinuse wrote: post #253
shinycode wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know how much of an anecdote it is, but all the non-tech people with whom I talk about IA only know chatGPT. Competition is either non existent or the same thing. Among those, no one wants to pay the service, they just stop using it when limits are reached. I can’t say which users can turn the market around but chatGPT is indeed burned in the mind of many and because they don’t care about tech and are not int…

I would bet 100% of those people have either Apple or Android phone in their pocket. Android users already have easy access to Gemini, and Apple's Siri is going LLM soon enough as well. Google and Apple just need to push their AI assistants hard enough, and most of the moat OpenAI has will be gone.

Apple licensed Gemini so both Android and IPhone will point to google's AI.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-05/apple-pla...

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#517

Post by jasonjmcghee »

WarmWash wrote: post #507
jasonjmcghee wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple has offered products with little value over competitors I'm genuinely surprised by this comment. For example, I thought there was universal sentiment that apple silicon / M-series computers are pretty unmatched.

The overwhelming volume of Apples sales comes from people who wouldn't notice if their device was running 2016 level hardware.

If software didn't keep getting worse this might be true but the average consumer notices if their computer is slow or dies too quickly.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#518

Post by cardanome »

WarmWash wrote: post #492
DrScientist wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry - being dim - I don't get that.

Apple has offered products with little value over competitors for a long time now, but they still get to command a large premium on their products because "the vibes are right". When engineers analyze things they look at the specs, stats, and metrics. When consumers analyze things they look at what others are doing, feel for vibes, roll into the convenience, and stick with the familiar.

Apple is one of the very few companies committed to (hardware) quality. They make sure their entry level models are very decent. You can't buy a apple product that is complete shite.

Yes, the software side is getting worse in recent years but is it at least slightly better than the competition for average consumers.

Plus being a tech monopolist they can offer a whole ecosystem of software and hardware that works great with each other. So the value proposition is greater than the sum of its parts.

That is the problem with OpenAI, they have only one thing. Google can bleed money all day long and they don't need to care because they have other profitable business ventures.

The way to make money with LLMs is to either be technically superior which only works short term until the competition catches up or create a monopoly. The second option is dead in the water with the advent of the Chinese models. I guess they can lobby to have them banned and create a cartel with their other US based competitors. Otherwise they are screwed. That is why they are allowing military use of their model now. They need that sweet government money to survive. Also they keep talking about AGI so the government gets scared about the Chinese reaching it first and supports them. Complete scam.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#519

Post by adithyassekhar »

jasonjmcghee wrote: post #517
WarmWash wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overwhelming volume of Apples sales comes from people who wouldn't notice if their device was running 2016 level hardware.

If software didn't keep getting worse this might be true but the average consumer notices if their computer is slow or dies too quickly.

It's sad how hardware improves leaps every year but software still does the same things but slower.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#520

Post by latexr »

joefourier wrote: post #477
latexr wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People have just moved the goalposts Yes, I agree. Just not in the direction you’re claiming. > imagine explaining Opus 4.6’s capabilities to someone even 10 years ago, it would definitely have been called AGI. No, it would have been called AI. A decade ago most people were not familiar with AGI as a term, that just got popularised because AI was taken over to be basically what we used to call ML.

> No, it would have been called AI. A decade ago most people were not familiar with AGI as a term, that just got popularised because AI was taken over to be basically what we used to call ML. Define "most people", I don't think the average user of ChatGPT is familiar with the term AGI even now, but it's been used in the AI/ML community for multiple decades. I remember reading about the distinction between general and…

> Define "most people"

The majority of individuals. Pick a random sample and ask. This is not a trick term.

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