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Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

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Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#511
post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are literally wrong about almost everything you've just said and have been for many years.[0] There's a great video on Youtube from Technology Connections on youtube if that's more your speed. He talks a bit about how you're being lied to about it regularly and explains the technology a bit.[1] You really should watch it as he explicitly addresses each of your issues here including "what about the batteries." Sol…

> great video on Youtube from Technology Connections I don't understand why you're trying to cite conspiracy theories propaganda that's aimed at people with double-digit IQs. His videos are filled with distortions and manipulations, and do not address the real challenges facing the energy sector. And no, there's no mention of batteries there; it's literally a straw man fight, showing their applicability to daily sola…

> And no, there's no mention of batteries there; it's literally a straw man fight, showing their applicability to daily solar power generation cycles while almost completely ignoring their applicability to annual cycles.

Why is it every single time someone in this thread speaks up they are just plain wrong?

Here is a direct link to the part about batteries. He talks about them for about 15 minutes which is something like a quarter of the video. There is even a chapter mark to take you to that part. He also mentions them half a dozen more times throughout the video and warns in the beginning that people like you will chime in with misinformation without watching the video. You proved him right.

https://youtu.be/KtQ9nt2ZeGM?t=3054

> applicability to annual cycles.

He talks about that too. I'm not going to bother linking. Actually watch the video or move on.

> Just take a weekly chart of the actual energy output of the panels for the year, and calculate the price relative to the worst week

I don't have to. The United States government did and even considering the cost of storage, it's still cheaper than all the alternatives. Has been for years now. See my earlier comments for links.

Private investors have done the same math, and that's why almost all new electricity generation being built is solar. It's the basically free money. Nobody with a brain can legitimately think that digging goop out of the desert, doing expensive processing to it, shipping it to the other side of the earth, and literally lighting it on fire (repeatedly forever) is more efficient than "slap up a solar cell and a battery then enjoy free energy for 20-40 years".

> hat's because the pedophiles who run the world can charge me 30 cents for electricity instead of the 3 cents it would cost if it were generated by fossil fuels.

Why would Donald Trump do that? He promised the oil execs anything they wanted for a billion dollars. Again, see my other replies for the receipts on that one. And see Trump inviting Epstein to his wedding for the other part.

*EDIT* To save you the clicks: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/electricity_generation/pdf/... https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/09/trump-asks-oil-exec...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_of_Donald_Trump_a...

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The picture is complex. Recovery here, fresh losses there. While the recovery we reported last year was welcome news, there are challenges ahead. The spectre of global annual coral bleaching will soon become a reality." This article also mentions that a recent large recovery was due to el nino conditions "Great Barrier Reef was reeling from successive disturbances, ranging from marine heatwaves and coral bleaching t…

No one ever attract public support and funding by saying: Don’t Panic. Everything is O.K. —- Edited to add: Rate limited so can’t reply without creating more alt accounts than I’m willing to, so: @Timon3 - that’s actually a really good point, and I follow at least a few folk that could be categorised as such at least some of the time.

Are you going to respond to my earlier comment? Do you have any evidence that this article misinformation besides that attention benefits the author?

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible to synthesise hydrocarbon analogues of petroluem-based fuels. The problem to date has been that this isn't cost-competitive with petroleum, though the difference is narrower than you might expect. Most famously, a Google X Project attempted this and succeeded technically, but the economics were unfavourable: Project Foghorn: https://x.company/projects/foghorn/ >. Both Germany and South Africa have perfo…

I hadn't heard of Fischer-Tropsch. Looks like it usually works based on gassification of biomass or existing fossil fuels, so it seems at first glance that it has the same negative externalities as just burning the source material doesn't it? The Sabatier process looks like it might have much less of that! Very cool stuff. I would love to see a future in which we use uninhabitable, non-arable, desert land to generate…

FT can work with pretty much any source of carbon and hydrogen.

The latter might come from an existing hydrocarbon (as with so-called "blue", "grey", "black", or "brown" hydrogen), or from electrolysis, which is not carbon-neutral. If the latter is powered by a carbon-neutral source (surplus renewables, nuclear), it's "green", and carbon-neutral.

CO2 can also be obtained from numerous sources. One prospect suggested when US peak oil was a concern, in the 1960s, was limestone. More recently, the US Naval Research Lab, as well as Google's Project Foghorn, looked at separating CO2 (in the form of carbonic and carbolic acid) from seawater, which is far less energy intensive than direct removal from the atmosphere. I'd looked up the history of research and industrial applications circa 2014, noted here:

https://web.archive.org/web/20170719101136/https://www.reddi...>

https://web.archive.org/web/20230601122020/https://old.reddi...>

The US Navy has an interest largely for its carrier fleet. Whilst the carriers themselves are nuclear powered, their aircraft are not, and fuel provisioning for the aircraft fleets is a major logistical hurdle as well as a strategic vulnerability. No need to target the carriers themselves (heavily defended) if the supply tankers can be sunk, something present US adversaries might consider. One prospect would be to effectively recommission older carriers as fuel-synthesis platforms, capable of producing aviation fuel from seawater in situ and not having to transit between fuel depots and the fleet itself. Given the additional costs of transit and strategic significance, the economics should be somewhat more favourable than for civilian use. This was the subject of a number of papers published in the 2010s by the US Naval Research Laboratory (listed above). Earlier research based on other carbon sources was performed at MIT and Brookhaven National Laboratory in the 1970s and 1960s, respectively.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#514
post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Access Denied You don't have permission to access " http://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consu... " on this server." But I mean, you say that but if you test a car advertised as having 200 miles real-world performance then in practical terms that's about 120 miles. You might get 200 miles if you're driving in a perfectly straight line on a perfectly flat motorway at a steady speed.

That's... weird? Maybe it's blocked in your country? The link opens just fine for me. Those were tested numbers, not advertised though. I don't see how you'd get a drop from 200 to 120 miles, that's a 40% drop. Maybe in a gasoline powered car, but EVs can regeneratively break, so I don't think it'd make that much of a difference. Reading some more, there are a handful of different ratings. the old European one: NEDC,…

I've driven some brand new 3-digit-miles Kia Niro EVs, which start off indicating 200 miles range but have dropped to 150 by the time I get across town, and after about 100 miles total driving they're screaming at me to find a charging point.

The real-world performance does not match the advertised performance.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of it is the industry standard for using the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE) as the benchmark metric. By that metric, solar IS the lowest cost power source. But that definition doesn't take into account availability. This wasn't a problem when all electricity sources were highly available by default. You can burn coal or run the hydro turbines any minute of the year. With the rise of often-unavailable…

> By any metric which takes into account minor availability requirements (eg. supplies electricity at night) solar badly loses its cost advantage. It gets even worse if the metric is the still important "deepest winter night" scenario. This is wildly incorrect. Batteries have gotten cheaper, solar has gotten cheaper, and even accounting for storage solar now wins by a wide margin even in "wintery" climates.[0] Ten ye…

That presentation doesn't support your claim. The closest it gets is that solar attached to 4 hours of batteries is, ignoring tax credits, about (it's hard to read accurately from the graph) ~8% more expensive than combined-cycle plants.

But 4 hours isn't near a full night. At least 12 hours of battery storage would be necessary for that, possibly more depending on light angles and the relative supply-versus-demand loading at different times of day.

Roughly from the graph on page 8, that 4 hours of battery costs $22/MWh over solar alone. Presuming no further solar panels were needed, extending that 4 hours to 12 to cover the night would cost around $44/MWh more, bringing the total cost of 24h-reliable solar+battery to around $97/MWh -- WITH tax credits. Without tax credits it would be $20-$30 higher, but the graph is too low resolution to be precise. That compares poorly to the $65/MWh for combined-cycle for one single night -- which gets no tax credits accounted for in that graph.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#516
post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pumping gases is not really fast. That goes for H2 or natural gas. It pumps slowly as to not overwhelm the tank and it needs time to equalize after the pump. Also connecting the nozzle is much more of a hassle because it needs to be a tight seal. Not remotely comparable to pumping gasoline. Apart from that a modern BEV can charge pretty fast. Just enough time to get a snack and eat it.

You've been told why that time is longer than you think, and why it hurts long distance travel. Ignoring that in your reply isn't helpful. This conversation is about R&D too. Batteries used to take forever to charge. They're better than they were. But I guess h2 can never improve, ever? And all these made up "hassles", oh no, you have to plug the nozzle in right? How tiresome! And I guess they can't insulate the hand…

You are right. These are things we might overcome. The question is if it's worth it. BEV is here, has a superior charging network and some inertia.

Apart from that I find it a bit unfair to compare today's BEVs with tomorrow's H2 cars.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#517
post #510
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

casing is around 25% of the mass of a cylindrical cell, with the rest being actual battery bits that can't have any stresses applied. is 25% weight saving that significant?

The idea is that you build the aircraft frame out of the battery. If you can get it to work (a big if) you get to subtract the weight of the old frame before you make calculate the pseudo-density,

I understand, but that's my point. Currently the case is 25% of the battery. Only the case can be removed. If you move the fragile guts of the battery into the frame (in no way reducing their mass or the frame's), you're effectively turning that 25% case to 0%. So, the most you can save is 25% battery weight.

That doesn't really nudge the power density needle all that much, especially when you consider that you don't throw batteries out the back as their energy is depleted, as you do with fuels.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#518
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out the "Clean Hydrogen Ladder" document. Hydrogen wastes a large amount of energy.

Unless you produce it using the Sulfur-Iodine cycle in a high-temperature nuclear reactor. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur%E2%80%93iodine_cycle and: https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/nhc/en/research/hydrogen_he...

According to the Wikipedia article, it is still significantly worse than Just Using the Electricity (~21 to 48% efficiency just on the hydrogen production part, not counting distribution and consumption).

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#519
post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You raise dying some good points, but hydrogen is really hard to store. It leaks out of everything. You have to very carefully design three containment vessel in order for it not to go wrong.

A statement predicated upon truth, but exaggerated and expanded with everty repeated retelling. It's a solved problem. It's not an issue.

How is it not an issue? The physics of hydrogen being one proton and one electron means it gets through everything, so something that's air tight and water tight still won't be hydrogen tight. So then you have to be extra careful with every coupling and fitting in order for it to be transferred. By "solved" you mean "if we do everything right, it works", which sounds like it'll be a total failure in the sloppy messy real world where things get kinda shitty but you still need them to work.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#520
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Synthetic fuels (including hydrogen) do still make a lot of sense for heavy stuff like trucks, buses or trains, and aircraft where the energy density is a big plus. Those are where you'd expect to see hydrogen take off first, not passenger cars. Same as how diesel started in trucks - expensive engines but economical when amortized and worth it for heavy usage applications. If they couldn't crack those areas, no chanc…

Reality already caught up with synthetic fuel for buses. Shenzhen electrified its entire 16,000-vehicle bus fleet in 2017 - that's almost a decade ago. Since then virtually all of China has transitioned to electric, and other countries aren't far behind. Electric buses have completely taken over the market. And it isn't just rich Western countries playing around either. We're seeing countries like Slovenia and Romani…

Electric buses have been a thing for many, many decades. They are called Trolley bus and they work great. And its better in a number of ways then battery buses. Specially inside of cities.
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