Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

511–520 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#511

Post by MattGaiser »

GoldenMonkey wrote: post #508
snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

Why is the independence of the Federal Reserve sacrosanct? For one, they should have oversight and they should have accountability. Not ever passing an audit of any kind. And the FED chairman spending $2.5B on renovations to an office complex. While misleading congress about the kinds of renovations. There should be less 'independence', if it means zero accountability.

> Why is the independence of the Federal Reserve sacrosanct?

Then the value of the USD is entirely at the whim of whoever is elected and should be priced accordingly.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#512

Post by hintymad »

stickfigure wrote: post #166
hintymad wrote: post #135

Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?

Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

> Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software?

I assume that dollar will be strong if people want to buy stuff from the US, which requires using the US currency. Software indeed is a strong sector. I'm just not sure (as due to my ignorance) if they compensate sufficiently the trade deficit. For instance, if advertisers use Instagram in Europe, they wouldn't need the US dollar to pay for the service, right? If there's no virtual export happens, I'd assume there won't be any need for the US currency either.

> Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

What about market share? I remember that the US had more than 65% of the manufacturing marketshare 25 years ago. Actually, I'm more concerned about the long-term national security and prosperity of the US, and I think they are tied to a robust manufacturing sector. But that's different topic.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#513

Post by elAhmo »

GoldenMonkey wrote: post #508
snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

Why is the independence of the Federal Reserve sacrosanct? For one, they should have oversight and they should have accountability. Not ever passing an audit of any kind. And the FED chairman spending $2.5B on renovations to an office complex. While misleading congress about the kinds of renovations. There should be less 'independence', if it means zero accountability.

I can't believe you are making an office complex renovation argument.

FED has been instrumental is keeping the monetary policy sane in the recent years, unlike some pushes from the orange person you are taking talking points from.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#514

Post by nonethewiser »

pegasus wrote: post #474
nonethewiser wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I partially agree. But the EU is in a pretty unstable state as incomplete government structure over a collection of peers. "Unstable" does not mean it's going to fall apart. It means it's going to fall apart or coalesce into a single thing (a new country). Or maybe a little of both (a new country with some fringe members leaving). It might not be in 5 or 10 years but it's inevitable. It's not going to operate like th…

I wouldn't describe integrating further to the point of becoming more like the US as "unstable". And that's the most likely outcome, which should make the EU more trustworthy as a partner, not less. EDIT: by "like the US" I mean federalization. This video explains it well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnarX3HPruA

>I wouldn't describe integrating further to the point of becoming more like the US as "unstable".

More like the US, as-in a country? So also more like Germany, China, South Africa, etc. You are making a false equivalence - being like the US in one extremely non-US specific way does not mean you must be like the US in every other way.

I'm not sure you even understand what I'm saying - this has nothing to do with the US vs. the EU or if the US is reliable.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#515

Post by comonoid »

lpcvoid wrote: post #463
pendenthistory wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, there seems to be more good will and amiable vibes between EU nationalities than within the US even. Even being enemies for a thousand years, I don't doubt that Swedish and Danish men would go to war for one another, or French and German. It's complicated yes, but the continent is more unified in spirit than it may seem to an outsider.

German here: I'd go to war (and likely will, with how it's looking currently) for any country that shares our values and is an ally or friend, that's being attacked by an evil force such as russia. And that of course includes my french brothers to the west.

... such as usa?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#516

Post by WarmWash »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #272
llmslave wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

covid money printing was some of the worst fed decision making in US history. they essentially ruined the housing market, priced out a generation of younger buyers, which is now crushing fertility rates, savings, and more

everyone complains, nobody has alternatives. what would have been the correct actions in that situation? really the government should tax in good times. and spend in bad times. and be a counter weight to private sector

The government acted as if the pandemic was happening in 1990, when everyone either worked in person all the time, or nothing worked.

Instead, the golden geese of the American economy (the actual golden geese), simply stayed home and worked from their laptop.

This created a situation where people were getting their regular paycheck, plus getting a multitude of stimulus on top of that. There were many making $100k+ salary, not paying rent (rent moratorium), not paying student loans (student loan moratorium), and not going out to do anything, resulting in having huge pools of cash laying around. If you had a mortgage, you got to refi at 3% and dramatically cut your mortgage bill. I won't even get into PPP loans either, everyone knows the story there.

I could write pages and pages about this, but the short of it is, we thought we need a wheelbarrow of money, but technology meant we only needed a jug of money. But we still got the full wheelbarrow.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#517

Post by toephu2 »

ericmay wrote: post #109
maerF0x0 wrote: post #88

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

I don’t think that’s feasible because China’s capital markets aren’t secure for foreign investors and never will be unless China changes the very thing that they want to be. They’d have to open their markets, be open to direct foreign investment, no more China-only ownership of companies, and no more artificial devaluation of the Yuan. Also the US capital market is huge. Surprisingly huge, even, and there is very lit…

> no more China-only ownership of companies

They already allow this somewhat. Tesla's Gigafactory in Shanghai is fully owned by Tesla, and is the first wholly foreign-owned car manufacturing plant in China, operating without a required local joint venture partner.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#518

Post by elAhmo »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #88

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

> My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar.

You mean devaluation is causing the growth of SP500, or the other way around?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#519

Post by ericmcer »

Jtsummers wrote: post #96
touwer wrote: post #51

The US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies

Many of us see it, but many others seem to be embracing it and trying to hasten it for reasons unknown. They pine for the glory days of post-WWII US hegemony but are actively undoing the institutions that were instrumental in US economic and political power at that time. They have no coherent world view, they are severely confused, but unfortunately numerous.

I feel like many are going to upvote this because they think it is an indictment on the current administration but it isn't exactly.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#520

Post by dhosek »

GoldenMonkey wrote: post #508
snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

Why is the independence of the Federal Reserve sacrosanct? For one, they should have oversight and they should have accountability. Not ever passing an audit of any kind. And the FED chairman spending $2.5B on renovations to an office complex. While misleading congress about the kinds of renovations. There should be less 'independence', if it means zero accountability.

Do you realize that you’ve digested a whole bunch of misinformation uncritically?
Post reply on HN