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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#511

Post by vacuity »

terminalshort wrote: post #318
layoric wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, these markets exist in the real world, so as their size and use increases, the more likely the odds will influence real world events. Look at sports betting for a much smaller example. Match fixing is known. Electricity markets are gamed for individual profits at the detriment to everyone and the stability of the system, even with regulators trying to keep things stable. Enough "Market for all the things" al…

The type of people who have the power to change decide these type of events already are able to use that power to make money in a thousand different ways. These markets will change nothing.

But the market exactly provides a direct way to use power to make money. Why go for more cumbersome methods?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#512

Post by vacuity »

md2020 wrote: post #236
smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here You're correct in your understanding of prediction markets with respect to traders using insider information. There are a couple things going on here. One is the subtext from most news media now that Technology Bad. New technologies are treated as guilty until proven innocent, because that is a more engaging narrative for readers. So in this case, those covering t…

I don't think it's so easy to get true information out of all the noise in the markets, and in any case, I don't see how this helps with the fact that corruption is bad. So what if I learn that a country will be wrongfully invaded? Can I have someone impeached for it?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#513

Post by Der_Einzige »

thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

You wrote this post with AI.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#514

Post by smeej »

concats wrote: post #310
smeej wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the hitman still does not get the entire value of the contract. The hitman gets the value of the number of shares he can afford to buy, but that's not the whole contract by any means. I think I understand what you're saying about the pricing. Am I correct in saying, then, that if the odds are 90% in favor of my living through the contract, the "No, smeej won't die today" price should be close to $0.10 (again, ign…

A risky bet can give back much more than 3x the money. Take this absurd one for example, it seems like it's offering up to 9x on a yes bet right now: https://polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-before-2027 (I don't know how much volume is available, nor do I endorse betting on either side of things like this)

For a few shares, sure, but not if you come in at 10% of the whole market in volume. That would eat a huge chunk of the open order book, causing a massive trading wick. You can't buy very many shares at that 9x value.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#515

Post by initatus »

cjs_ac wrote: post #375
moring wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that NSW = New South Wales? I'm asking because Wikipedia lists New South Wales as a population of only 8.5 million, and those crime numbers are insanely huge relative to that.

More than half of all physical slot machines in the world are in Australia.

I can't find this statistic. Do you have a source by chance?

The search this led me down was quite illuminating, so source or not I do appreciate your comment.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#516

Post by VanshPatel99 »

I am more worried about how it trivializes a lot of news which should affect you positively or negatively. It removes the reality and gravity of things happening to just "I won the bet or I lost". Especially when there are bets on war. Are people who better for war, supposed to feel happy that they predicted right? Of course it depends on the individual, and certain kind are more likely to bet on war than other but it still incentivizes a lot of people.

I usually wouldn't bet on war but I was thinking the other day about betting on Valorant. I could hedge my emotions. I could bet against my team and be in a win win situation. If they win, I am happy. If they lose, I earned lunch money.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#517

Post by whattheheckheck »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #513
thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

You wrote this post with AI.

Someone's ai classifier bot posted again
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