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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#511

Post by DrScientist »

gpt5 wrote: post #504
DrScientist wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I would consider as the most impactful inventions of the last decade would be things like mRNA, Generative AI, and reusable rockets - all came from the US and the US is maintaining the lead in them. This so myopic. The covid mRNA vaccine that Pfizer made billions from was done by BionTech a company in Germany led by immigrant turks. Sure some American's recently got the Nobel prize for the pseudouridine modifi…

I’m sorry, but you are completely missing the point. Nobody disputed that mRNA, like all science, has many inventors. And that many people in the west as a whole has worked on the technology. Everything you said about the contributions to mRNA is correct, and doesn’t diminish US’s critical part in it. The point was, and remains, that saying that the US has stopped becoming innovative, is just nonsense.

Aren't we are talking about relative innovation?

Of course the US is still innovative - I think the question is whether countries like China are simply copying or now out innovating in some areas.

Their appears to be a lack of acknowledgement in the US about the current rate of innovation coming out of China these days - the days of only cheap knock-offs ( as with Japan before them ) is largely over.

In the areas I know - I see increasingly impressive innovation coming out of China right now.

The way the US is treating China right now is counter productive in my view. The biggest risk isn't the Chinese stealing US innovation - the biggest risk is the US cutting itself off from a key source of new ideas.

In my view the next Biontech is more likely to come from China than Germany.

I don't know why the US is treating it as a zero-sum game.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#512

Post by jorts »

MrSkelter wrote: post #452
andyjohnson0 wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is how we approach everything. > This is because it is not only a government policy, but also a Chinese way of thinking. Nothing can interrupt this process. Is there any evidence that this kind of homogeneous "national character" is objectively real? Or is it just another story that people tell themselves?

[flagged]

China is in a bad place long-term with an inevitable population decline.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#513

Post by riobard »

amluto wrote: post #277

If I were running this show, I would have a second concurrent project as a hedge and as a chance of leapfrogging the West: trying to make free electron laser lithography work. Free electron lasers have lots of (theoretical) advantages: no tin debris, better wavelength control, the ability to get even shorter wavelengths, higher power, higher efficiency, and it’s less Rube Goldberg-ish. Also the barrier to entry for b…

China has several teams working on FEL and several experimenting light sources, the latest being built in Shenzhen https://www.iasf.ac.cn/

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#514

Post by nathias »

snapcaster wrote: post #471
yanhangyhy wrote: post #323

Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything. There is a small caveat, though. China was not actually that far behind in the semiconductor field in the past. The problem was that corruption and fraudulent proj…

I don't disagree with you on the conclusion, but man I just wish people stopped believing in fairy tales about countries like this. America does it too. Why are people so allergic to materialism? I'm not saying culture is irrelevant but saying china's success is due to "Chinese way of thinking" or america was dominant because of the "american dream" is an adult believing santa-tier take. Material conditions shape his…

ideologies are part of the material conditions

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#516

Post by doe88 »

I have no sympathy towards China, but it is dumb and arrogant to think that such a big and powerful country with enough time and determination won't be able to achieve this goal. They have the industry, the manpower, the education system, this is only a question of time now.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#517

Post by maxglute »

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #472
MrSkelter wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Your comment seems rooted in fear and anger. It's rooted in neither. Care to explain why you came to that conclusion? Fyi I'm neither American nor Chinese. I was replying to a commenter who used "how we approach everything" and "Chinese way of thinking" when explaining China's economic dominance. I was questioning whether there is any such "national thinking" in any society, still less in a society of ~1.4bn people…

It's the story the new generations tell themselves that's taken hold last few years. IIRC context is SMEE chairman (maker of PRC litho machine) said EUV is made by man, not god. Became rally for PRC industry and national confidence. X is made by man, not god for anything PRC needs to catchup on. Which circles back to Qian Xuesen, foreign people can build rockets, why can't we. Or more recently, foreign people are good at XYZ events, why can't we. AKA anything they can do we can do.

The bigger undercurrent is divide between faction of people who think EUV impossible or possible. Between boomer/doomers (older, never do better than west types) and young techno-optimists, faction generation/education divided. TLDR PRC technical talent skews young, and techwar as spurned wave of scifi optimists, techno nationalists and industrialist party way of thinking. It's not homogeneous but it's dominant, especially in S&T after quick ascendancy.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#518

Post by jjcc »

notepad0x90 wrote: post #143

Good for them, I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ). Don't get me wrong, I want the west to succeed, but a competition from China is exactly what is needed. They're building datacenters in arizona and india for TSMC because of this competition. I really hope we get past historical political rivalry and get along with China better. Competition is good, hostility…

Give you some more historical context: China (ROC) planned to invade west China until the plan was given up in 60's. Both sides wanted reunification by force. When China's navy and air force was superior in early 1950's, it tried to "establish blockade of trade with west China (PRC) along the Chinese coast" (1)

China eventually gave up the plan in 1960's not because it didn't want to but because the balance of the power weighting over to west China. In 80's and 90's both agree to make peace given the premise that both sides belong to China.

TSMC was a product of industry policy from None-democratic China government. The founder Morris Chang ， an American born in the west China ，never visited China before 50 years old.

Both China (before 90') and west China used to want reunification , by force or not. China changed a bit later. The motivation of west China to invade China has little to do with chips although US thought that's the critical incentive. West China will still let TSMC provide the chips to the world in case it would have successfully invaded China in my view.

1.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Tuapse

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#519

Post by maxglute »

jorts wrote: post #512
MrSkelter wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

China is in a bad place long-term with an inevitable population decline.

Long term is after you and I die, before that they'll reap the greatest high skill demographic dividend in human history that can put everyone else in a bad place long term first.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#520

Post by rsoto2 »

petcat wrote: post #488
darth_avocado wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A "Manhattan Project" would be building some shocking new technology that didn't previously exist. You’re missing forest for the trees. ASML at the moment has the monopoly on these machines. This is not only a great tool for the West to keep China at bay, but also a way to maintain economic dominance. Even if they can’t get the machine up and running until 2030, and the machine is a generation behind, China has eff…

> And then the rest of the world won’t even have older chips. This basically just means Europe wont have older chips. TSMC is already producing a significant percentage of their chips in Arizona. And they've even slated ~30% of their total production of 2nm chips and better will be produced in USA by 2028-2029.

You mean the TSMC factory that it's workers hate and has been facing heavy delays and power outages???

https://restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-arizona-expansion/

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