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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#511

Post by m0llusk »

> To build it requires companies to invest a sum of money unlike anything in living memory.

Do we know this? Smaller more carefully curated training sets are proving to be valuable and gaining traction. It seems like the strategy of throwing huge amounts of data at LLMs is specific to companies that are attempting to dominate this space regardless of cost. It may turn out that more modest and better optimized methodologies will end up winning this race, much like WebVan flamed out taking huge amounts of investment money with them but now Instacart serves the same sector in a way that actually works robustly and profitably.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#512

Post by rfrey »

9rx wrote: post #257
rfrey wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand what you're getting at, but compilers are deterministic. AI isn't just another tool, or just a higher level of program specification.

[flagged]

> Nobody was ever talking about AI. If you want to participate in the discussions actually taking place, not just the one you imagined in your head

Wow. No, I actually don't want to participate in a discussion where the default is random hostility and immediate personal attack. Sheesh.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#513

Post by [deleted] »

dust42 wrote: post #358
rfrey wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand what you're getting at, but compilers are deterministic. AI isn't just another tool, or just a higher level of program specification.

And so is "AI". Unless you add randomness AKA raise the temperature.

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#514

Post by rfrey »

dust42 wrote: post #358
rfrey wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand what you're getting at, but compilers are deterministic. AI isn't just another tool, or just a higher level of program specification.

And so is "AI". Unless you add randomness AKA raise the temperature.

If you and I put the same input into GCC, we will get the same output (counting flags and config as input). The same is not true for an LLM.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#515

Post by 9rx »

wakawaka28 wrote: post #510
9rx wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You are trying to assert this equivalence to ultimately assert a similar equivalence between vibecoding and software engineering. I don't know what vibecoding is, but from past context and your arbitrary thoughts about about using natural language for writing software that came from out the blue, I am going to guess that you are referring to the aforementioned talk about criminal code. That is the only time we said…

There is no way you don't know what vibecoding is. I don't believe you. As we both know, the AI we are talking about uses natural language as input. To address the ridiculous connections you are trying to make, I am forced to distinguish natural languages from programming languages. You might like to overlook the vast differences between programming languages and natural languages to try to support your point. But th…

> There is no way you don't know what vibecoding is.

I'm old. I don't keep up with the kids. Maybe the kids have changed what a compiler is too. Is that the point of contention here? If so, that's pretty silly. When I write "compiler" it means what I mean it to mean, not what some arbitrary kid I've never met thinks it means. How can someone use a word in a way that they don't even know exists?

> As we both know, the AI we are talking about uses natural language as input.

That is not what I am talking about. Did you press the wrong reply button? That would explain your deep confusion.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#516

Post by jmalicki »

s1mplicissimus wrote: post #377
rozap wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

consider rewriting in rust

that's gonna be painful, as the borrow checker really trips up LLMs

I do a lot of LLM work in rust, I find the type system is a huge defense against errors and hallucinations vs JavaScript or even Typescript.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#517

Post by whimsicalism »

9rx wrote: post #460
lm28469 wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given an input clang will always give the same output, not quite the same for llms. Also nobody ever claimed compilers were intelligent or that they "understood" things

An LLM will also give the same output for the same input when the temperature is zero[1]. It only becomes non-deterministic if you choose for it to be. Which is the same for a C compiler. You can choose to add as many random conditionals as you so please. But there is nothing about a compiler that implies determinism. A compiler is defined by function (taking input on how you want something to work and outputting cod…

currently LLMs from majorvproviders are not deterministic with temp=0, there are startups focusing on this issue (among others) https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/defeating-nondeterminism-in...

Re: Is it a bubble?

#518

Post by oytis »

f154hfds wrote: post #38

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

I dunno, I might be getting old, but I think the idea that people absolutely need a job to stay sane betrays lack of imagination. Of course getting paid just enough for survival is pretty depressing, but if I can have healthy food, a spacious place to live, ability to travel and all the free time I can have, I'd be absolutely happy without a job. Maybe I'd be even writing code, just not commercially useful one.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#519

Post by whimsicalism »

NewsaHackO wrote: post #491
lm28469 wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I did that HN thing where I went to an LLM, set temp to 0, pasted your comments in and got widely different outputs every single time I did so

Was the seed set to the same value everytime?

https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/defeating-nondeterminism-in...

Re: Is it a bubble?

#520

Post by 9rx »

rfrey wrote: post #512
9rx wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Nobody was ever talking about AI. If you want to participate in the discussions actually taking place, not just the one you imagined in your head Wow. No, I actually don't want to participate in a discussion where the default is random hostility and immediate personal attack. Sheesh.

[flagged]
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