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Harnessing America's heat pump moment

heatpumped.org

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Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#511
post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is for a fraction of consumers- power companies and governments are well aware of that.

Exactly. Not a sustainable/scalable policy.

The point of my original post was that I’ve seen a much greater ROI on my own heatpump than solar, even though I don’t regret the solar installation. I wasn’t making any claims about sustainability/scalability of solar, just showing how it worked for me.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is gas actually less efficient? I haven't had to work out the math myself yet, but there are some very salient variables - e.g. what's the energy source of the electricity? If it's a natural gas power plant, you're looking at like 30-60% efficiency of gas->electricity in the first place. Are you looking a at a heat pump heater? If so, how much of its energy would be pulling heat from the house that needs to be replac…

> ”Are you looking a at a heat pump heater? If so, how much of its energy would be pulling heat from the house that needs to be replaced by the home's heating supply anyway?” Heat pump water heaters pull heat from the outside . Usually with a split outdoor unit, just like normal A/C and heat pump systems. I’ve also seen models where the entire system (integrated storage cylinder for the heated water) is installed out…

Thanks, that obviously makes more sense. (I think I was thinking about heat pump clothes dryers at the same time I was making that comment.)

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Mine struggles if it gets below 30, and might as well not exist below 10. They're not great at low temps. What percentage of the (US) population gets temperatures like that? That's generally mostly IECC Zone 7 (though cold snaps in Zone 6) can happen: * https://basc.pnnl.gov/images/iecc-climate-zone-map ASHRAE—an HVAC organization—has data on the coldest and hottest days for areas so that you can design things for…

So gas hash higher reliability and is cheap for the times you need heat the most, whereas heat pumps might not work and are not cheap at the times you need them the most? I’ve had a gas furnace keep me and the water heated multiple times in a cold weather power outage.

> So gas hash higher reliability and is cheap for the times you need heat the most, whereas heat pumps might not work and are not cheap at the times you need them the most?

The major manufacturers have systems that will use the heat pump when the temperatures are not 'crazy', and kick in fossil at a certain point:

* https://www.trane.com/residential/en/resources/glossary/dual...

* https://www.carrier.com/residential/en/ca/homeowner-resource...

* https://www.lennox.com/residential/buyers-guide/guide-to-hva...

Depending on the cost of power and fossil fuels, you can program it to switch over once the COP becomes too low to justify running up kWh on your meter.

But whereas in the past heat pumps would have their COP drop around 40F/5C, modern systems can be fairly efficient at much lower temperature nowadays:

* https://neep.org/heating-electrification/ccashp-specificatio...

You have heat pumps running in Alaska:

* https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2024/09/01/energ...

* https://alaskarenewableenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10...

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#514
post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mini-splits these days are available as multi-head (I think that’s the term) units, where a single outside unit can supply 2,4, or 6 units individually and independently. They’re remarkable, and I would go for a mini-split system over a central unit 100 times out of 100.

> where a single outside unit can supply 2,4, or 6 units individually and independently In my current home, I have two "heads" attached to a single outside unit, but they cannot operate independently beyond setting different fan speeds or closing the vent really. If one of the mini-splits is set to heat and the other switches to cooling, they will booth start cooling, or vice versa, the head units just blindly blow a…

By “independently” I meant that one room could be heating/cooling while other rooms aren’t doing anything at all. Or one room could be warmer/cooler than another.

As opposed to central unit’s all-or-nothing approach.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Central air system with indoor blower & outdoor condenser generally don't come with pre-charged lines so self-install without certification isn't really an option in US.

I got my EPA 608 universal for free after 2 night of cramming and an online proctored test. Skillcat, I think they charge like $50 if you want a printed card, worth it to me because I wanted to be able to walk into supply houses and buy refrigerant.

I almost did this after I helped a friend install a mini-split.

Having just installed a mini-split in my office shed with a pre/charged unit. I told him it was easy and helped him. We ended up needing to buy an extra long line set to make the distance work, which needed more refrigerant.

I called 15 different places and finally found one that could come out and charge the line for under $350. Which was hard to stomach with the whole unit costing only $750 from Amazon.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very regional though - my rates have not gone up.

Electricity prices are going up nearly everywhere. Bitcoin and AI are a wealth transfer from everyone to the crypto/AI folks. Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That's being passed on to customers: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-elec...

That doesn't make any sense. Bitcoin miners get wealth from people buying Bitcoin, not from electricity customers. Same for AI. It's a wealth transfer from electricity customers to electricity producers if anything.

Most likely most of the increase is just temporary though. Electricity supply will increase to meet the sudden and unpredictable increase in demand.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please avoid unwarranted "whataboutism."

You brought up subsidies. I updated your understanding of subsidies. What is this whataboutism you are talking about?

> I updated your understanding of subsidies.

Adults don't talk like this. The parent shared they would be far less likely to have moved forward without the subsidies. Now, you implied that someone (me) pointing out a tradeoff of solar subsidies must be non-critical of O&G subsidies, yet you provided no proof that I wasn't ALSO critical of O&G subsidies.

Meanwhile, I would love to learn more about the financials of your non-profit, ChargeFoundation.org that has mailing to a residence in Austin, TX. I'm not seeing any 990s.[0] Can you please post your foundation's financial reports on your site?

[0] https://app.candid.org/profile/15315388/charge-foundation-93...

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look up private equity buying up HVAC firms. It is in fact a get rich scheme.

I thought private equity was all about liquidating nearly bankrupt businesses

That too, but in this case they’ve got a formula for enshitifying local firms.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#519
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People told me that, but I did the calculations myself and the impact on my energy bills is real. Net metering is essential though, so not everyone can do it. Compared to say SoCal I generate 2/3 as much per year, much less evenly- a lot more in summer than winter, whereas further south there's less variation year round. Cooler temperatures improve solar panel efficiency too. There are online solar potential calculat…

Right, but you have to compare it to the opportunity cost of the money. A solar panel is an annuity. There is a one time sunk cost for a relatively consistent, long-term payout. If I put $100 into the stock market in approximately seven years I will have $200. If I put $100 into solar panels, in 10 or 15 years, I will have $100 worth of savings. Financially, it is not much better than just putting it under a mattress…

> I can’t imagine the math is any better in Canada.

I don't have to imagine, I've actually installed it and I can see the impact on my bills. By most estimates it has a 12-15 year ROI that matches the stock market, and will continue to generate electricity for another 10-15 years after that. The 'math' is a function of many things: orientation, roof angle, occlusion, installation costs, electricity cost, latitude, grants/loans, net metering terms, etc. It's a huge assumption to say that what doesn't work in one location in Cleveland won't work for a property in Canada 2 degrees further north.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#520
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s bonkers. I bought a pre-charged ductless mini split to DIY. Took my dad and I about four hours to do the install. So call it 8 hours of semi-skilled labor. The unit was $1350, I added a line set cover, pad and feet for another $200, and needed about $200 in electrical equipment - it was a long wire run and code requires installing a disconnect box. The only special tool was a hole saw bit for running the coolant…

It's not that different for other contractors either. That's part of the reason housing prices are so high. As unbelievable as it is, someone must be willing to pay the high prices. Economic inequality is the basic reason for the housing shortage.

If prices are high, that typically means demand exceeds supply. What is preventing supply from expanding to meet demand? Elsewhere in this thread someone mentioned regulation.

Suppose we wave a magic wand and everyone in society becomes equally wealthy. That doesn't solve the fundamental problem of a contractor shortage. It just means we no longer have prices as a method for matching contractors with jobs to the same degree as previously. Without prices being bid up as high, there is less incentive to go into contracting, meaning that the shortage is liable to persist for longer.

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