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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

cnn.com

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#511

Post by strangattractor »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

Most significant technology takes almost a generation to be fully adopted. I think it is unlikely we are seeing the full effect of LLM's at the moment.

Content producers are blocking scrapers of their sites to prevent AI companies from using their content. I would not assume that AI is either inevitable or on a easy path to adoption. AI certainly isn't very useful if what it "knows" is out of date.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#512

Post by jameslk »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut.

AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption, not more leisure.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#513

Post by pmlnr »

jameslk wrote: post #512
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

Keynes was talking about work in every sense,including house chore. We're well below 15 hours of house chores by now, so that part became true.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#514

Post by 77pt77 »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #409
snowwrestler wrote: post #400

Historically, people have been pretty good at predicting the effects of new technologies on existing jobs. But quite bad at predicting the new jobs / careers / industries that are eventually created with those technologies. This is why free market economies create more wealth over time than centrally planned economies: the free market allows more people to try seemingly crazy ideas, and is faster to recognize good id…

So, we are doomed to work forever, just maybe different jobs?

Just like the Red Queen.

You have to always keep on moving just to stay in the same place.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#515

Post by csomar »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Elon Musk experiment is the worst anchor that can be used for comparison since the dude destabilized Twitter (re-branding, random layoffs, etc...). I'd be more interested in companies that went leaner but did it in a sane manner. The Internet user base grew between 2022 and now but Twitter might have lost users in that time period and certainly didn't make any new innovations beyond trying to charge its users more and confusing them.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#516

Post by jaggederest »

nradov wrote: post #479
digitcatphd wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of now yes. But we are still in day 0.1 of GenAI. Do you think this will be the case when o3 models are 10x better and 100x cheaper? There will be a turning point but it’s not happened yet.

10× better by what metric? Progress on LLMs has been amazing but already appears to be slowing down.

All these folks are once again seeing the first 1/4 of a sigmoid curve and extrapolating to infinity.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#517

Post by csomar »

topspin wrote: post #475
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

"shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output?" No. The bottleneck isn't intellectual productivity. The bottleneck is a legion of other things; regulation, IP law, marketing, etc. The executive email writers and meeting attenders have a swarm of business considerations ricocheting around in their heads in eternal battle with each other. It takes a lot of supposedly brilliant thinking to safely monetize all…

> where researchers are applying models in novel ways and making legitimate advances in math, medicine and other fields.

Can you give an example, say in Medicine, where AI made a significant advancement? That is we are talking neural networks and up (ie: LLM) and not some local optimization.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#518

Post by autobodie »

jameslk wrote: post #512
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

Keynes lived in a time when the working class was organized and exerting its power over its destiny.

We live in a time that the working class is unbelievably brainwashed and manipulated.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#519

Post by sbierwagen »

catigula wrote: post #196
Animats wrote: post #194

The real bloodbath will come when coordination between multiple AIs, in a company sense, starts working. Computers have much better I/O than humans. Once a corporate organization can be automated, it will be too fast for humans to participate. There will be no place for slow people. "Move fast and break things" - Zuckerberg "A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." - Georg…

This doesn't even make sense. What corporations do you think will exist in this world? You're not going to sell me your SaaS when I can rent AIs to make faster cheaper IP that I actually own to my exact specifications.

https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/05/30/ascended-economy/

Robot run iron mine that sells iron ore to a robot run steel mill that sells steel plate to a robot run heavy truck manufacturer that sells heavy trucks to robot run iron mines, etc etc.

The material handling of heavy industry is already heavily automated, almost by definition. You just need to take out the last few people.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#520

Post by xkcd1963 »

bawolff wrote: post #486
topspin wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output?" No. The bottleneck isn't intellectual productivity. The bottleneck is a legion of other things; regulation, IP law, marketing, etc. The executive email writers and meeting attenders have a swarm of business considerations ricocheting around in their heads in eternal battle with each other. It takes a lot of supposedly brilliant thinking to safely monetize all…

Even still, in theory this should free up more money to hire more lawyers, markerters, etc. The effect should still be there presuming the market isn't saturated with new ideas .

Something else will get expensive in the meantime, e.g. it doesn't matter how much you earn, landlords will always increase rent to the limit because a living space is a basic necessity
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