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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#511

Post by giva »

trumpvoter wrote: post #461
neuronic wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see you posting anti-Western comments all over the place but amidst your irrational hate you are forgetting history. Originally, the US was the protector of almost all Asian countries from Japanese Imperialism, an axis power allied with Nazi Germany. How are people like you forgetting the rape of Nanjing or the mass killings of civilians by the Japanese across the Philippines and many other places? How are you forg…

> As a European, I am aware of American cultural and military hegemony but I much rather argue with raging capitalists about workers rights compared to raging authoriatarian communists who kill everybody not on their ideological side. Isn't this their main point? There's plenty of examples of killing those not on their side outside of "authoriatarian communists" (hint, Iraq, Gaza). You still believe in them and that'…

The point, I guess, is that we had and still have mass organized protests against what happened in Iraq and Gaza. Some leaders paid a political price for that.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#512

Post by throw0101a »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves.

You are being economically rational. Not all human decisions are done through that lens.

"Thucydides found that people go to war out of 'honor, fear, and interest.'” — Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan

* https://acoup.blog/2019/12/05/collections-a-trip-through-thu...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#513

Post by natch »

DeathArrow wrote: post #364
jopsen wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we face the reality: Taiwan is a vassal state. The decision makers are simply owned by the US. The thing about US "vassel" states is they don't have to do what the US says. And sometimes won't! It's a classic Russian talking point that Ukraine has no agency. You're making the same argument for Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like. They could build nukes. They could opt to do nothing an…

>Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like. Unless its leaders and ruling class are owned by US. It wouldn't be the first time US is directing some puppet governments.

Kind of a random fact but speaking of “owned by the US” many of the leaders and ruling class hold US citizenship too.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#514

Post by altacc »

aurareturn wrote: post #452
drstewart wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why won't European or Canada or Australia defend democracy and provide Taiwan security guarantees and protection?

Because "defending democracy" is propaganda for the common people. It's always economics. The US/Europe will support or even install a dictator if the government is pro-western.

Yep, spreading democracy and freedom is PR. I think there's a historical preference to installing or supporting a dictator rather than a messy democracy. There's several cases where democratic elections delivered a government the US didn't agree with, so they orchestrated regime change.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#515

Post by throw0101a »

cookiemonsieur wrote: post #432
drodgers wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as mo…

[flagged]

> It's extremely unlikely to ever happen. I think westerners are simply projecting their own war mongering tendencies on their rivals.

Talk to Xi then: "Xi says no one can stop China's 'reunification' with Taiwan":

* https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xi-says-no-one-can-stop-...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#516

Post by m000 »

jltsiren wrote: post #414
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

You seem to be assuming that the invasion would happen by surprise. That's effectively impossible due to the scale of the operation. Especially because China is full of foreigners and the logistical effort would be impossible to hide. If China decides to invade, everyone would likely know it weeks in advance. They just could not be sure if it's an actual invasion or a massive military exercise that simulates an invas…

What would make carrier strike groups effective in the situation? Given their recent record in the defense of Israel and against the Yemeni Red Sea blockade, one could argue that their era is over. The two most likely outcomes from a carrier strike group engaging with China forces are either a humiliating retreat, or WW3. I think US are smart enough to keep them at bay. Maybe station one in the area for monitoring the situation and assisting evacuation of Americans.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#517

Post by jppittma »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

Why not destroy the foundries, move all the TSMC employees to the US, rebuild them here (there is no surer investment), and let China have the land?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#518

Post by gizzlon »

altacc wrote: post #473
yujzgzc wrote: post #399

Trump involuntarily did more for Taiwan / mainland unification in one meeting with Zelensky than in all the years prior. Taiwanese now understand that they can't trust US to step up to their security commitments. If US won't do it for Europeans being savagely attacked by aggressive neighbors, they won't do it for Taiwanese being blockaded by mainland. At that point Taiwan tariffs and China tariffs will be the same. T…

The difference is that China is on Trump's enemy list, whereas he considers Russia's oligarchs to be potential business partners for his own oligarchy. Trump wants trade barriers to China but wants those with Russia to be removed.

> The difference is that China is on Trump's enemy list

Until the right Chinese person sucks up to Trump. Maybe someone with a less ..ehrm. . Asian look that Xi? (I don't know why, but Trump seems to admire Putin and despise Xi. . could be for all sorts of reasons, I guess)

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#519

Post by ptero »

kelipso wrote: post #483
ikurei wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because their argument, in which they do have faith, is that a cacophony of disagreeing viewpoints casting doubts on the common national project is hurtful, even if those doubts are unfounded and those viewpoints unsubstantiated. I'm not defending autoritarianism or communism, but I think you're just not putting yourself in their shoes and looking at things from their POV. They supress other viewpoints not because th…

One of the reasons for the collapse of the USSR was that the propaganda done by the US was better than the propaganda done by the Soviets. So it's not like there isn't a historical reason for this either.

A much bigger reason for the collapse was that the planned economy and distribution (plus military spending) failed to produce enough basic goods and quality of life for many started dropping.

To the extent that party elite started building their own, parallel universe of food, summer camps for kids, apartments, shops, etc. closed to the ordinary people. It was clear to many people that the Soviet road, as followed, goes to a variant of a North Korea lifestyle.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#520

Post by sebzim4500 »

bloomingkales wrote: post #478
nverno wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

Why not buy them out? If you give everyone 100k it’s only 2.4 trillion. Or even better, just buy out the militant element.

I think this strategy could possible work with the US taking Greenland (although I think that plan has been abandoned) but there is no way that Taiwan would accept such a small amount.
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