511–520 of 1001 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This has nothing to do with technology it is a purely financial and political exercise...
But why drop $500B (or even $100B short term) if there is not something there? The numbers are too big
For fun, I calculated how this stacks up against other humanity-scale mega projects. Mega Project Rankings (USD Inflation Adjusted) The New Deal: $1T, Interstate Highway System: $618B, OpenAI Stargate: $500B, The Apollo Project: $278B, International Space Station: $180B, South-North Water Transfer: $106B, The Channel Tunnel: $31B, Manhattan Project: $30B Insane Stuff.
I'm confused and a bit disturbed; honestly having a very difficult time internalizing and processing this information. This announcement is making me wonder if I'm poorly calibrated on the current progress of AI development and the potential path forward. Is the key idea here that current AI development has figured out enough to brute force a path towards AGI? Or I guess the alternative is that they expect to figure…
Largest GPU cluster at the moment is X.ai's 100K H100's which is ~$2.5B worth of GPUs. So, something 10x bigger (1M GPUs) is $25B, and add $10B for 1GW nuclear reactor. This sort of $100-500B budget doesn't sound like training cluster money, more like anticipating massive industry uptake and multiple datacenters running inference (with all of corporate America's data sitting in the cloud).
SoftBank and MGX paying for all this, all foreign investment. Where is the US government in all this? Why aren't they leading the charge? They obviously have the money.
You have to keep in mind Microsoft is planning on spending almost 100B in datacenter capex this year and they're not alone. This is basically OpenAI matching the major cloud provider's spending. This could also be (at least partly) a reaction to Microsoft threatening to pull OpenAI's cloud credits last year. OpenAI wants to maintain independence and with compute accounting for 25–50% of their expenses (currently) [2]…
Serious question - why Texas???
~$125B per year would be 2-3% of all domestic investment. It's similar in scale to the GDP of a small middle income country. If the electric grid — particularly the interconnection queue — is already the bottleneck to data center deployment, is something on this scale even close to possible? If it's a rationalized policy framework (big if!), I would guess there's some major permitting reform announcement coming soon.
With a state like Texas and a Federal Government thats onboard these permits would be a much smaller issue. The press conference makes this seem more like, "drill baby drill" (drilling natural gas) and directly talking about them spinning up their own power plants.
[1] https://www.kunr.org/npr-news/2024-09-11/how-memphis-became-...
[2] https://www.gevernova.com/gas-power/resources/case-studies/t...
This could potentially trigger an AI arms race between the US and China. The standard has been set, lets see what China responds with. Either way, it will accelerate the arrival of ASI, which in my opinion is probably a good thing.
Unless we air strike the data centers, there is no way to control China’s progress
You have to keep in mind Microsoft is planning on spending almost 100B in datacenter capex this year and they're not alone. This is basically OpenAI matching the major cloud provider's spending. This could also be (at least partly) a reaction to Microsoft threatening to pull OpenAI's cloud credits last year. OpenAI wants to maintain independence and with compute accounting for 25–50% of their expenses (currently) [2]…
I wonder if this is a sign of the global economic downturn pausing cloud migrations or AI sucking the oxygen out of the room.
Texas positioning itself better than expected for AI and EVs is the plot twist the peasants needed If they plan to transition off oil/nuclear it will be fun to watch
Texas already is the leading state in new grid battery and grid solar installs for the last 3 years. Governor Abbott also did nuclear deregulation last year.
it seems like such a simple stat to collect