Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you comparing a system 10 years ago with a system now?
Realistically, how many chances do you think the average person is going to give the alg to drive them into an object at 70mph? Has there been a significant customer side advancement in Tesla autopilot in 10 years? From what I can tell, all Elon has accomplished is becoming the new Prius- a sprinkling of Teslas blocking the left lane of our highways (ask any Autopilot aficionado, that’s the safest place to use it) wh…
GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
511–520 of 692 posts
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#512Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think there's some chance that Tesla's approach will work out for them, but I'm not optimistic. Getting self-driving software to "impressively good" happened pretty quickly, and even systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test. But from there to "as safe as a human" let alone "as safe as we require human-replacing machines to be" turns out to be quite a hard gap to…
> and even systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test This is complete bullshit. The systems in 2016 were restricted to pre-mapped areas with lots of training. (i.e. the waymo/cruise approach today) So if you weren’t in a tiny slice of San Francisco or a few other training areas, this didn’t work.
Even if an area is pre-mapped, if you're operating on public streets you need to handle all sorts of unusual things. Here's a Cruise video recorded in 2016 on SF streets, showing a tricky interactions with buses, stopped delivery vehicles, pedestrians, etc: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tp6Ubf6mE4
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#513Earlier quoted context omitted.
Its not what the public think of 'self driving'. Its not like you can tell the autopilot where you want to go and then sit back, sleep, turn around, do something else. You have to monitor it. So you are basically paying to take legal responsibility for the crashes of a not-quite-ready autopilot whilst still having to keep alert. The moment there is a true self-driving capability, where you can sit back and let the ca…
Somewhat analogous to letting your 16 year old drive. Quite a bit more stressful than just driving yourself.
Exactly. My car has adaptive cruise control. In slow traffic, if the car in front comes to a stop, it'll also stop. But what happens if it's turned off? I honestly don't know and don't have the balls to find out, because so far it just keeps getting closer to the car in front. So if I accidentally pause it then drive the same way I would with it enabled, I might(?) rear-end someone.
It'd be the height of stupidity if it does just keep rolling forward, but who knows...
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#514Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Tesla FSD is practically perfected Absolutely untrue. It's not even close to perfect. I use it a few times a week and while it's seen some significant improvements over the last year, it still makes pretty dangerous mistakes, especially on left turns, right-turn slip lanes, intersections with flashing yellow lights, streets with very worn road lines or where the positioning of the road lines shift from one side of…
Thank you to post your personal experience. One pattern that I have noticed about Tesla FSD stories on HN: it is black and white, with little grey area. Either people live an area where the roads are easy for FSD to navigate, and they come here to say "It is perfect!". And vice versa: People live in a place with a bunch of complex roads and intersections where FSD does not perform well... And they come to HN to share…
The streets of Jakarta and Napoli wouldn't work with the Mercedes Benz system either.
> Who has the training data at this point?
Woven by Toyota has roof pods on rideshare (Lyft) cars collecting data: https://woven.toyota/en/our-latest/20220407/
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#515Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would this help Tesla more than Waymo? Even supposing slanted regulatory rule making, Tesla’s autonomous capabilities are vastly inferior to Waymo. The rules can’t be that complicated, either you can drive a car autonomously on a given road or not. FWIW I’m a Tesla owner who rides Waymos whenever they are available for a cab ride, and won’t turn on FSD despite a number of free trials
If you won't turn on FSD how do you know Waymo is vastly superior?
What I mean is that I’ve used it and don’t like how it drives / had bad experiences, so I won’t use it now even when it’s free
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#516Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would this help Tesla more than Waymo? Even supposing slanted regulatory rule making, Tesla’s autonomous capabilities are vastly inferior to Waymo. The rules can’t be that complicated, either you can drive a car autonomously on a given road or not. FWIW I’m a Tesla owner who rides Waymos whenever they are available for a cab ride, and won’t turn on FSD despite a number of free trials
>either you can drive a car autonomously on a given road or not This doesn't seem obvious to me. My impression is that the rate of improvement on autonomous systems is at least somewhat gradual. You've seen this in Waymo's slow roll out, moving from offering the service in initially less complicated settings (suburbs of Phoenix) and progressing to more challenging terrain (San Francisco). If that's the case, then a c…
My impression is that we’re regulations to soften, Waymo would quickly expand to freeways - the lack of their ability to do so now constrains their usefulness
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#517Earlier quoted context omitted.
> of those 3 companies Tesla seems to be taking it the most seriously. You call lying about it endlessly, misleading marketing, beta-testing on public roads, and not even having L3 properly in production "taking it the most seriously"?
Yes: Only Tesla is willing to sacrifice human lives today for the dream of robo-driving in the future.
Sometimes ya gotta break a few eggs to make an omelette
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#518Earlier quoted context omitted.
Realistically, how many chances do you think the average person is going to give the alg to drive them into an object at 70mph? Has there been a significant customer side advancement in Tesla autopilot in 10 years? From what I can tell, all Elon has accomplished is becoming the new Prius- a sprinkling of Teslas blocking the left lane of our highways (ask any Autopilot aficionado, that’s the safest place to use it) wh…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoZhER_-nhg
Why is this impressive? 6:20 human takes over and cuts to a new clip.
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#519Earlier quoted context omitted.
You’re shifting the goal posts, but do you not believe these services can eventually be delivered profitably?
I have absolutely not shifted a goal post. What I believe is immaterial, what's important is that the companies that really know this industry are behaving as if there's no future in robotaxis. That should give you pause.
Which industry are you referring to?
Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house
#520Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think proper V2H/V2G (vehicle to home/grid) is a big one that is very rare at the moment but is probably making a lot of people who could buy an EV at the moment (i.e. have a garage/driveway in a city) hold off until it's more common, because it makes the economics a lot more attractive. (In general, because of cratering manufacturing costs, improving tech, and a still low trust for battery health, being an EV earl…
I'm not super convinced about the V2H stuff, tbh. I only need backup power at home to keep the heat on when I'm not there. If I'm not there almost certainly my car isn't either. When I am there I can light a candle and run the wood stove to keep the pipes from freezing. So a stationary battery bank for my solar system makes a lot more sense than trying to use my car for that purpose.
And probably a backup generator with a big propane tank is a better solution.
I've thought about it over the years and if I was regularly away for long periods in the winter I'd probably have spent the money. As it is, I cross my fingers and generally try not to have long periods away from my house in the winter.