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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#511

Post by benterix »

cm2187 wrote: post #481
fnordpiglet wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t feel that OpenAI has a huge moat against say Anthropic. And I don’t know OpenAI needs Microsoft nearly as much as Microsoft needs OpenAI

But is it even clear what is the next big leap after LLM? I have the feeling many tend to extrapolate the progress of AI from the last 2 years to the next 30 years but research doesn't always work like that (though improvements in computing power did).

Extrapolating 2 years might give you a wrong idea, but extrapolating the last year suggests making another leap that was GPT3 or GPT4 is much, much more difficult. The only considerable breakthrough I can think of is Google's huge context window which I hope will be the norm one day, but in terms of actual results they're not mind-blowing yet. We see little improvements everyday and for sure there will be some leaps, but I wouldn't count on a revolution.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#512

Post by astrange »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #281
brianjking wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could still cover him, no idea though. Via the FTC link: "Existing noncompetes for senior executives - who represent less than 0.75% of workers - can remain in force under the FTC’s final rule, but employers are banned from entering into or attempting to enforce any new noncompetes, even if they involve senior executives. Employers will be required to provide notice to workers other than senior executives who are bou…

Doesn’t matter since CA has broader laws anyway

It's constitutional in CA.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#513

Post by astrange »

elphinstone wrote: post #225
whimsicalism wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my guess is that a significantly underrated reason is that Google holds itself to stricter data compliance standards than OAI

That is openly laughable. Incognito mode claims, just one of a long list of examples of this politicized monopoly engaging in criminal behavior.

Cynicism is just giving yourself an excuse to be wrong because it sounds cooler.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#514

Post by newcan1 »

vintermann wrote: post #473
vasco wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes zero sense, governments invest in education to improve their own country, not to train other countries work forces. If you read anything about Canada ever you will also know they have a bunch of policies to try and stop the brain drain and to recruit tech workers from abroad.

It's not as if Canada doesn't benefit from machine learning advances. It just doesn't by having many ML start-ups as a tax base. Canada's skilled immigration policy is a train wreck, but that's another issue.

Canada's skilled immigration policy is amazing. It is attracting some of the best talent in the world. What it is not able to do is retain the talent and is just ending up as a stepping stone to the US. All it needs to do is two things: 1. Provide tax deductions for rent and interest on home loans for new home buyers. 2. Reduce the average taxes to just slightly less than the US tax rate by 5-10% upto 500k. Then watch the magic happen.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#515

Post by astrange »

menacingly wrote: post #323
breadwinner wrote: post #45

Ilya knows how ChatGPT works. Any company that hires him will be able to catch up with ChatGPT.

I think what is probably very stressful about this space is virtually everyone knows how ChatGPT works. It is not a theoretical leap. It's actually fairly predictable how this shakes out, and OpenAI is pretty vulnerable. an LLM is a curiosity without user data, anyone with a big silo of data can put out something years behind frontier and still instantly see huge usage. No one wants to go to AI, they want AI to come…

> It's not like someone is going to use insider OpenAI knowledge to build an LLM so advanced you switch email, phone, or ERP providers

If you mean the other kind of ERP they will definitely do that; it's basically all /r/localllama is about.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#516

Post by astrange »

Jensson wrote: post #389
MVissers wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is more money in AGI than LLMs. Whatever it is, language seems key to intelligent algorithms. Nah, he departed due to politics (failed coup) and shift from research first to profit first. Same with Karpathy I believe. He’ll most likely go somewhere where he can get a lot of compute and go back to research first.

> There is more money in AGI than LLMs. That doesn't matter, they know how to do LLMs, they don't know how to do AGI. To modern capitalists that means you invest in one and the other someone else can do. OpenAI was exploratory until they found something that could make them rich, then they went closed and for profit, now you should see them as just another for profit.

They are a nonprofit.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#517

Post by re »

bbor wrote: post #451
OtomotO wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sorry, there must be some hidden tech, some completely different attempt to speak about AGI. I really, really doubt that transformers will become AGI. Maybe I am wrong, I am no expert in this field, but I would love to understand the reasoning behind this "could arrive this year", because it reminds me about coldfusion :X edit: maybe the term has changed again. AGI to me means truly understanding, maybe even som…

As something of a (biased) expert: yes, it’s a big deal, and yes, this seemingly dumb breakthrough was the last missing piece. It takes a few dozen hours of philosophy to show why your brain is also composed of recursive structures of probabilistic machines, so forget that, it’s not neccesary, instead, take a glance at these two links: 1. Alan Turing on why we should never ever perform a Turing test: https://redirect…

> Alan Turing on why we should never ever perform a Turing test

Can you cite specifically what in the paper you're basing that on? I skimmed it as well as the Wikipedia summary but I didn't see anywhere that Turing said that the imitation game should not be played.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#518

Post by layer8 »

vitus wrote: post #346
goatlover wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that depend on the interpretation of QM? There are still physicists who defend hidden variables and determinism. It should be noted Einstein was arguing with the founders of the Copenhagen interpretation, which has left many physicists dissatisfied. Sean Carol being a prominent current detractor (although is version of determinism is Many Worlds).

Einstein wasn't arguing just against the Copenhagen interpretation, he was arguing against the very notion of physical nondeterminism. In fact, his arguments against nonlocality were later disproven experimentally in the '80s, as quantum mechanics allowed for much higher fidelity predictions than could be explained by a hidden variable theory [0]. I don't think anyone _likes_ the Copenhagen interpretation per se, it'…

Many-worlds is not necessarily impossible to verify experimentally, because it predicts that there is no collapse of the wave function, whereas Copenhagen claims that there is. Many-worlds is not just an interpretation in that sense, it’s a theory that makes predictions (by reasoning about what happens when the wave function is all there is and always evolves according to the Schroedinger equation — it is a deterministic theory in that sense). I believe Einstein would have liked it, given the experimental evidence we have since.

Copenhagen, on the other hand, doesn’t offer a workable model of how and when the wave function collapses, and doesn’t offer any predictions in that way (there are theories of wave function collapse that actually make predictions — some of which have already been falsified by experiment). For that reason Copenhagen isn’t “least objectionable”.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#519

Post by l5870uoo9y »

ralfd wrote: post #480
nabla9 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

How important are top science guys though? OpenAI has a thousand employees and almost unlimited money, and llm are better understood, I would guess continous development will beat singular genius heroes?

Difficult to quantify but as an example the 2017 scientific paper “Attention is all you need” changed the entire AI field dramatically. Without these landmark achievements delivered by highly skilled scientists, OpenAI wouldn’t exist or only be severely limited.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#520

Post by astrange »

bpiche wrote: post #488
surfingdino wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. His non-competes are likely very restrictive.

I just want to point out that you have noted this falsehood like five times in this thread already. Noncompetes have been unenforceable in California since 2008 , and for over a month federally.

Noncompetes have been illegal in CA for much longer than that. It is literally the reason Silicon Valley exists; Fairchild couldn't enforce theirs.
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