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Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

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Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> punishes hoarding Or put another way, punishes saving. Forcing people to "save" by loaning the money to businesses and governments bonds and equities is good for politicians who like to be measured by economic metrics. But it's bad for being able to actually save for the future, and reducing dependencies on banks, leading to the moral hazard (with 0% inflation you could have narrow banking without problems).

Or put another way, punishes saving. Yes, savings should have a cost and/or risk associated with them. Furthermore, it’s insane to expect otherwise.

Even with 0% inflation savings do have inherent costs and risks: you might die before you get to spend them, they might be confiscated by some future dystopian state, or society might just get poorer and the money buys less in the future than it does now.

Most obviously there is the time value of money. Money by itself isn't useful, only the things you can buy with it are. Something today is more useful than the same thing in a year.

Economists often act like none of the above is true. They argue that given an improving world people would just do nothing, hoarding money in the expectation of it being worth more in a year. For as long as I've been alive the 2% target has been justified with this sort of nonsensical circular pop psychology, in which supposedly devaluing savings was required to manipulate the people out of their naturally zombie-like state (which if true would obviously mean the economy wouldn't grow, acting as a negative feedback loop that would then make it immediately untrue again). The existence of counter-examples like Switzerland did not bother any of them. Now we read that this wasn't even the actual source of the number, it was just plucked out of the air and justified retroactively! Not really a surprise given the weakness of the original argument.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>2% was a good way for companies to be able to adjust labor costs down if needed (if you don't give someone a raise when inflation is 2%, you're effectively lowering their salary) This is EXACTLY the issue. The economy is rigged such that in the absence of any positive action, workers' purchasing power goes down over time by default. This obviously isn't a problem for the rich, whose money is stored almost entirely i…

The issue is much more complex than devalued wages. It's worth asking where the inflated money goes. It doesn't go to your bank account, it doesn't get sent out in checks to every citizen. It goes directly into the pockets of people who take out loans to fund business ventures -- capitalists/owners. That's what the interest rate is, interest on loans. When you have socialism for the rich as we do in America, that fur…

Yeah, it angers me to hear people argue that inflation is good because it encourages people to invest instead of hoarding cash.

1. It's your money, so it's not for others to control.

2. You may have a good reason for keeping money under your mattress. For example, you're poor and inexperienced with investing and have heard how people lose their shirts if they don't know what they're doing. There is a lot of complexity to investing, and scary contracts and qualifiers, and then you find out that you don't really own clear title to the stocks you've bought, and hear stories that brokerage firms transfer stock that they don't even have, but will protect favored rich clients if push comes to shove.

3. Maybe there's real risk in the economy, so recklessly investing despite that danger shouldn't be forced one someone with the threat of stealing value.

4. The rich can afford advisors who will help them invest so that they don't have to hold onto inflating cash, and know of ways to preserve value. Only the poor have a sizeable portion of their wealth in cash.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The tricky bit is interwebs make sarcasm really hard to detect, especially when today there's ample real and honest examples of extreme opinions along any given scale. I may be socially inept, but I'm still perplexed as to which of the couple of different points of view separated by "just kidding" phrase you are genuinely putting forward; apologies if I'm being obtuse, it is not deliberate.

'Just kidding' refers to what's above it. Sorry for the confusion; it wasn't intended but I can understand it.

So people should ignore their expenses going way up, and not bother plotting them or whatever because...?

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#514
post #510
post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if you borrow against your assets, using nominal gains to obtain more and more loaned money. That's tax free and with hard assets such as real estate, the nominal gains far outweigh the interest.

I wish I knew how to play that game. It's a game primarily played by the rich, and is part of the reason that the primary losers from inflation are poor.

Yes, the printed money (whose value is "sucked" from the ones in your pocket) is given to those closest to the money printer, and they tend to be the very richest in society. It's called the Cantillon effect.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#515
post #295
post #5

Yellen supposedly told Greenspan & co in the mid 90s that 2% was a good way for companies to be able to adjust labor costs down if needed (if you don't give someone a raise when inflation is 2%, you're effectively lowering their salary). It was the only way to have some flexibility there. If you admit that this is a desirable thing, this is defeated by wage negotiations (or say, benefits) than tend to be indexed to i…

Well, no matter how the 2% figure was arrived at as a matter of historical happenstance, 2% is actually a very good number to shoot for. First of all, a rate of zero would be ideal, but, lets face it, like any measurement, this is going to have some error. So, if you are going to err, on which side do you want to err? In favor of a little bit of inflation, or a little bit of deflation? Well, inflation is painful, sur…

Secular deflation existed in the late 19th century during growth periods.

Deflation associated with debt deleveraging can be bad. But the problem is that we got into debt. Debt was not nearly as high in the 19th century. Debt addiction is relative modern.

Our inflationary 2%++ regime tends to encourage debt, and the Trumps of the world can leverage their lives to the hilt. Poor people have much more difficulty juggling debt and fail spectacularly. Debt growth increases economic instability.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#516
post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> your paycheck--the dollar amount you brought home--would be cut in half. However, your car payment, your mortgage, and your credit card bills would stay at the same nominal value. Not necessarily. If the transition to a deflationary economy is slow and planned, then expected deflation would start to be considered in the interest rates of your car payment, mortgage, etc. i.e. interest rates would become negative not…

> If the transition to a deflationary economy is slow and planned, If your money is guaranteed to grow in value--and without the risk of actually investing it--that would starve the economy of investment, which would reduce economic growth. People would hold back on their consumption (why buy it today, when tomorrow it will be cheaper??), further reducing demand, which would further depress prices, etc in a doom cycl…

We should use debt only as much as necessary. Normalization, promotion, even subsidy of debt leads people to make poorer choices and to think in the short term. It destabilizes the world, and sets up traps for the many naive people, traps that benefit lenders.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe leading economists didn't see this coming. Even if they didn't originally, it's been clear now, for decades. This is the system working as intended, making government spending easy and gradually worsening poor's people lives.

Are poor people's lives objectively worse now than they were, say, 40 years ago?

Yes, for living arrangements.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are poor people's lives objectively worse now than they were, say, 40 years ago?

The only way to answer this question is with data, not anecdote. And the people in this discussion thread are saying they don't trust the inflation data. I trust the data, and the data shows their lives are better. If you don't trust the data, it's impossible to know.

A read of the data shows that, but it's not the only read nor the only data.

So we can say wages have increased to keep up with inflation, but left out is all the money lost during the time lag before wages caught up. And whose wages caught up? If you use average wages, then you can hide the details. You really need to look at different income levels, or at least the median wage and the inflation experienced for that median person, bare minimum.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#519
post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Annual wages are about 15% higher today compared to 1971 in real terms. Since 1971, the cumulative inflation rate was around 700%, with an average annual inflation being well over 3%. So while wages increased 15%, the price of everything else around us increased over 700%.

The 15% increase in wages is in real terms, meaning it's already been adjusted with inflation. Think of it this way: in nominal terms, wage increase would be 715%.

+15% is x1.15, +700% is x8. 1.15x8 is 9.2 so the number you want is +820%.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#520
post #502
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You haven't understood the issue. If a firm needs to lower costs, the alternatives to mild inflation are: * Negotiating actual salary cuts, or * Job losses Ideally in a market, prices adjust up and down freely. Obviously this is not a sensible approach to salaries. Given the bias towards loss aversion, having mild inflation make mild losses is preferable to having, say: 5% deflation, 7% salary cut. This concept is fr…

Why should firms get a free 2% cut in salaries paid? Generally, firms are in a stronger negotiating position about salary, especially for the lowest skill labor and poorest people. If there's a downturn, then everyone will have to tighten belts, and firms can make that case to employees. Making a real 2% salary cut the universal default is cruel, and if your typical hourly wage-earner understood clearly the choice be…

It's not a "free 2% cut in salaries", it apply to everything else. If there is 2% inflation the company will have to pay everything more and will have probably have to negotiate to get higher price from its client too or it will not get its 2% more revenue to compensate the increase of everything.

Additionally, usually workers have too take debts too buy their house. If there is a little inflation and the salaries are following inflation the debts becomes comparatively lower every year.

It's not just against workers. There are upsides and downsides for everybody.

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