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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#511

Post by bogomipz »

kurthr wrote: post #196
ripe wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> non-productive Speculative investments tend to get punished at the end of the cycle by losing all value, thus punishing those invested in it and restoring order. To be precise, the investors who are left holding at the end of the cycle get punished. The early investors who got out make out like robbers. This system incentivizes pump-and-dump.

That is "the market" working for you! We could allocate resources to productive assets by fiscal spending, but that is prevented by politics. Only when "the market" gets its cut can any infrastructure be built in the US. That's also true for much of the medical establishment and pension/retirement systems. If the market was efficient, we wouldn't be complaining about it. Unfortunately, a "free market" and an efficien…

>"We could allocate resources to productive assets by fiscal spending, but that is prevented by politics. Only when "the market" gets its cut can any infrastructure be built in the US. That's also true for much of the medical establishment and pension/retirement systems"

I'm trying to follow this but not understanding it. What do you mean by " Only when "the market" gets its cut". A you referring to public/private partnerships here or pork barrel politics? Something else entirely?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#512

Post by axg11 »

jstarfish wrote: post #301
prohobo wrote: post #21

People said this was the "best time ever to get funding" for a startup. I disagree. In my view, it was the best time ever if you played a particular game and had the right connections. I pitched an idea to a VC, which I had a prototype for, looking for $100k. He liked it but wouldn't fund because I didn't have a solid business plan. Fair enough, I need to find a business partner. But then he told me something about h…

I hate SV culture, so not one to WK or make excuses for it, but when you have as much money to throw around as he does, you don't have time to deal with requests for pocket change. Look at your own investment portfolio. Are you investing $1 at a time in fractional shares of a million different stocks, or investing $1000 at a time on a smaller number of stocks/funds you expect to have solid returns? (You think his cry…

Do you know which website you’re on?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#513

Post by worik »

kenrik wrote: post #472
Johnny555 wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mention Slack, but they had losses of $140M/year prior to IPO: Slack says it may not turn profitable; IPO filing reveals $139 million in losses, Microsoft primary competitor The Slack IPO filing shows annual revenue of $400.5 million, up 60% from the prior year, with a net loss of $138.9 million, for the 12-month period that ended Jan. 31. Slack's actual fiscal year-end date has yet to be determined.

Slack grew their workforce too quickly. Actually the Slack I remember from when it first came out is more or less the same product they have now. I'm not really sure what all of those people were doing for all of those years.

Why slack? I never understood.

I never liked IRC. But to not like it and pay for it? I do not understand.

Am I a fossil?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#514

Post by golergka »

ctime wrote: post #55

I don't think we need the latest Cloud/AI/ML/Crypto/Web3.0 bullshit to spin up fuckedcompany.com again. I remember thinking in ~2015 going to conferences that this shit was never going to last. Then around 2018 driving (sitting) on 101 listening to advertisements for "C3 IoT AI" on NPR thinking, could a company jam more meaningless buzzwords into a single company name? For shits, looked up their stock just and its do…

And I remember thinking back in 2010 that investors who have Facebook valuation of $10b were plain stupid. Taught me not to take myself too seriously.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#515

Post by oneoff786 »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #347
Closi wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure where you are getting those numbers from. Ford had $37b in revenue Q4. Tesla had $16b. Tesla makes a 27.4% gross margin on that revenue though, while Ford has a gross margin of 4.8%. > Tesla is an impressive company that's managed to finally be profitable. Although technically true, this is a little misleading as it implies that Tesla is barely profitable - in reality they have moved from 'finally beco…

They still need to 10x their profit to make their current PE of 130 to make sense.

I feel like that’s not unreasonable over a decently long period of time?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#516

Post by la6472 »

avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

Bubbles are absolutely necessary in an innovative marketplace. There has to be thousands of fail fast companies before a titan emerges.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#517

Post by Johnny555 »

worik wrote: post #513
kenrik wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Slack grew their workforce too quickly. Actually the Slack I remember from when it first came out is more or less the same product they have now. I'm not really sure what all of those people were doing for all of those years.

Why slack? I never understood. I never liked IRC. But to not like it and pay for it? I do not understand. Am I a fossil?

Most people don't get to choose, in my case, it's our corporate IM system, so I have to use it whether I want to or not.

It's got a lot of enterprise features that companies like, like SSO integration, message retention policies, security certifications like HIPAA and FedRAMP, and more.

There are also a lot of pre-made apps for integrating with corporate apps like Jira, Gmail, Salesforce, etc.

It's fine, I haven't looked at a lot of other options, but it seems more usable than Google Hangouts (or messenger or whatever they call it now) or Microsoft Teams.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#518

Post by JJMcJ »

SauciestGNU wrote: post #290
Robotbeat wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sucks is that fiscal policy, ie government spending, is also often not very efficient. Even when rampant corruption doesn’t destroy efficiency, crushing bureaucracy or just plain incompetence will. (Is the DMV a model of efficiency?) So you need a smart balance. And you need competent, honest people in both business AND government. I don’t think that government necessarily is inefficient. The DMV could be a very…

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

Almost all DMV problems are due to understaffing, not any laziness or incompetence on the part of the people who work there.

In California the DMV experience was greatly improved by having appointments, and for walk in, you get a number and at least have an idea when you'll be called, so you can sit in a waiting area, not have to stand for hours.

COVID has reduced staffing so that makes appointments harder to get.

Also, imagining that corporate offices are models of efficiency is an error.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#519

Post by marbletiles »

JoshCole wrote: post #474
abzolv wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If average Jane, who is not a raving Tesla fan, wants to spend circa $140K on an EV, and she has to choose between the Mercedes EQS 580 and the Tesla Model X, which one would you say is the no-brainer (better value for money)? https://www.mbusa.com/en/vehicles/class/eqs/sedan https://www.tesla.com/modelx That is the future of Tesla. Increasing competition by better products offered by manufacturers with far more expe…

At both price points on the link the Tesla vehicle metrics are dominant over the Mercedes vehicle metrics. In fact, the $110k cost Tesla has better metrics than the $130k cost Mercedes: it is faster, accelerates faster, has higher horsepower, and has higher range. If the average Jane has $140k and wants the best value for money it is really hard to see why they would choose the objectively inferior car according to m…

“Range” is likely the only one of those metrics Jane will care about. This sounds like one of those rants we used to hear about “why would anyone buy a Mac when PCs have higher specs??”

Mercedes does cabin UX like Apple does software (and BMW is better still). Maybe Jane wants a button for her wing mirrors. And door handles that work. Actually comfortable suspension. An instrument cluster. A dealer to look after her from decision to delivery.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#520

Post by bityard »

winter_blue wrote: post #446
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

> where employees demanded equivalent pay increases to housing cost increases How can employees realistically speaking even do this?

The old fashioned way: ask for a raise and go somewhere else if they don't pay?
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