Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

511–520 of 1001 posts

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#511

Post by kansface »

anonfornoreason wrote: post #429
akamaka wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Africa’s excess deaths amount to 1 out of every 200 people. The most vulnerable have already been removed from the sample set. I’m going to wait for severity data from where I live, because that’s what matters.

every year more vulnerable people are added to that set as population ages, gets fatter, has more advanced coronary or metabolic disease, etc. not trying to contradict here I think it will be less each year. maybe governments will even start telling people their dirt and exercise choices are exacerbating this disease!

> every year more vulnerable people are added to that set as population ages, gets fatter, has more advanced coronary or metabolic disease, etc.

The number added each season is not necessarily the same number as the ones removed in the previous year - see the prevalence of really bad flu seasons for instance, which occur every 2-3 years or so.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#512

Post by 988747 »

johnchristopher wrote: post #476
roody15 wrote: post #175

This is honesty good news. The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear train running full steam. A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. No. Covid reeinfects. There's only a short-lived immunity. Covid is not a cold. If it doesn't get your the first or the second or the third time it will get you the 15th time. Long term damage is not getting enough attention. In decades maybe we get a mild covid. > Way too many co…

> No. Covid reeinfects. There's only a short-lived immunity.

So let's Omicron, or any other mild variant spread, we'll get reinfected regularly, thus developing resistance to more malignant strains. That's how we beat flu, which, believe or not, was deadly in the past. Now we get millions of flu infections each year, but no one cares, because they are mild.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#513

Post by NicoJuicy »

jimmyearlcarter wrote: post #498
oceanplexian wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. The story has always been that it reduces symptoms and hospitalization, so there are plenty of opportunities for the disease to get “tickets” in the evolution lottery. Between that, the animal reservoirs (COVID can spread to different species), and the millions of people in undeveloped countries who will never get a vax, COVID was guaranteed…

The vaccine was initially sold as the tool to end the pandemic and get life back to 'normal'. The narrative has evolved to suit the deficiencies of the vaccine and keep profits from sinking.

Or if the virus gets irrelevant.

One doesn't exclude the other. People don't see an end with natural evolution, so the vaccine was/is the main focus for a long time.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#514

Post by kansface »

bognition wrote: post #9

There are a few important bits here: First: "The study by Discovery Health, South Africa’s largest health insurer, of 211,000 positive coronavirus cases, of which 78,000 were attributed to omicron, showed that risk of hospital admissions among adults who contracted covid-19 was 29 percent lower than in the initial pandemic wave that emerged in March 2020." and second: "At the same time, the vaccine may offer 70 perce…

I don't understand this study. Why not compare the hospitalization/fatality rates between _current_ omicron/delta infections between similar cohorts?

Comparing to an earlier wave is hopelessly confounded on prior infections in the intervening time and similarly, on the most susceptible having already been killed off.

Maybe they did what I'm suggesting and its mostly just bad reporting?

edit from the summary :-/ :

Vaccine effectiveness:

    The two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination provides 70% protection against severe complications of COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation, and 33% protection against COVID-19 infection, during the current Omicron wave. 

    Reinfection risk: For individuals who have had COVID-19 previously, the risk of reinfection with Omicron is significantly higher, relative to prior variants.

    Severity: The risk of hospital admission among adults diagnosed with COVID-19 is 29% lower for the Omicron variant infection compared to infections involving the D614G mutation in South Africa’s first wave in mid-2020, after adjusting for vaccination status

    Children: Despite very low absolute incidence, preliminary data suggests that children have a 20% higher risk of hospital admission in Omicron-led fourth wave in South Africa, relative to the D614G-led first wave.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#515

Post by stickfigure »

dragontamer wrote: post #453
thaumasiotes wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. Sure, that's fair. > In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox. Huh? No, it isn't.

Fine. UK eradicated Rabies. I'm pretty sure we all agree Rabies has substantial animal reservoirs, right?

Rabies only has animal reservoirs, it isn't spread person-to-person. And it appears that the localities that have eradicated rabies have done so by dropping animal baits with oral vaccines.

So... small, mostly deforested island countries may have a good chance against animal-borne viruses that have inexpensive edible vaccines.

The wealthiest country in the world hasn't managed to eradicate rabies. Covid isn't going to end this way.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#516

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

croes wrote: post #50
bognition wrote: post #9

There are a few important bits here: First: "The study by Discovery Health, South Africa’s largest health insurer, of 211,000 positive coronavirus cases, of which 78,000 were attributed to omicron, showed that risk of hospital admissions among adults who contracted covid-19 was 29 percent lower than in the initial pandemic wave that emerged in March 2020." and second: "At the same time, the vaccine may offer 70 perce…

Don't forget this part: "South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection" So it could simply be that the mild cases were previously infected, what happens to an unvaccinated without prior infection is a different story.

When they are saying this is less severe - is that based on ~20% of the country having Covid or ~80%?

There are these estimates that ~80% of SA had Covid.

If so - previous variants were 1/4th as severe - since 3/4ths of the cases went undetected... Right?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#517

Post by iso1631 »

roywiggins wrote: post #269
iso1631 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting how Scotland, which kept a mask mandate, and England, which dropped it, affected cases. From start to end of October, cases per 100k, 7 day average Glasgow -- 300->220 Edinburgh -- 210->250 Manchester -- 290->220 Birmingham -- 250->280 4 similar cities, two with mask mandates, two without. And smaller ones Aberdeen -- 267->330 Southampton -- 300->410 Perth -- 320->260 Hereford -- 290->580 So there ma…

There's already data that shows masks work. https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/09/surgical-mask...

Perhaps, but given there's doesn't seem to be a clear difference between Scotland and England, that leads to questions like

1) Were people in Scotland (with higher masking) being less cautious in other areas (washing hands, staying further away, etc)

2) Was the weather worse in Scotland, leading to more closed windows

3) Are people in Scotland more likely to be tested and thus more cases caught

The problem I have is that

The Scientific method comes out with great studies (wearing masks, all things being equal, reduces transmission)

That leads to a prediction (enforcing masks reduces cases figures)

That prediction doesn't hold out (Scottish cases figures)

So we need to revisit the prediction,

1) Does a mask mandate increase mask usage (anecdotally it appears so, but I only went to Glasgow and Manchester in October)

2) Does increased mask usage lead to other behaviours which would increase risk

3) Does increased mask usage lead to more awareness in testing

4) Do anti mask people go round licking door handles to try to spread covid to prove their points

These are perfectly valid questions, yet you can't ask them, because half the responses will be some idiotic cultish anti-mask covid denier, and the others will be some cultish mask worshiper

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#518

Post by circlefavshape »

renaudg wrote: post #370
roody15 wrote: post #175

This is honesty good news. The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear train running full steam. A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world.

> The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. No, this scenario wouldn't be good news at all. Firstly, a marginally lower case fatality rate is a linear improvement, whereas much higher transmissibility is an exponential worsening. In other words, the reduced risk of an infected person getting into hospital is dwarfed by the exponential inc…

> That's why "let it rip through so we get natural immunity" is such a short sighted stance.

That is absolutely not what the OP said, fwiw

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#519

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

b9a2cab5 wrote: post #483
alex-korr wrote: post #475

Prediction - nerds will drum up any FUD related to omicron to postpone return to the office. I am seeing it in my company already - in the today's tech virtual townhall "omicron is going to hit hard, so why go back to the office in Jan" was the most upvoted comment in the stream.

Nobody wants to pay Bay Area rent to live next to drug addicts and piss smelling sidewalks. Everyone I know in tech that was in SF has moved out of SF.

Obviously some people do, otherwise there wouldn't be so many people still living in SF...

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#520

Post by yread »

jimmyearlcarter wrote: post #498
oceanplexian wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. The story has always been that it reduces symptoms and hospitalization, so there are plenty of opportunities for the disease to get “tickets” in the evolution lottery. Between that, the animal reservoirs (COVID can spread to different species), and the millions of people in undeveloped countries who will never get a vax, COVID was guaranteed…

The vaccine was initially sold as the tool to end the pandemic and get life back to 'normal'. The narrative has evolved to suit the deficiencies of the vaccine and keep profits from sinking.

They could have ended the wildtype pandemic. As soon as delta appeared it was impossible. They have 90% efficiency at best and you need 84% of all people protected to stop delta (1-1/R0 for R0=6). It's impossible to get such high vax rate.
Post reply on HN