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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#511

Post by peytn »

__s wrote: post #326
peytn wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rules do not exist to manage risk. They exist to strike a balance between ethics and risk in emergency situations. If you’d like to change them going forward, feel free to advocate. I think it’s best we stick with our current rules this round.

Our current rules are what was done. You're the one advocating for more cautious rules because you consider 1 in a million side effects too great a cost compared to the cost of non vaccinated covid

I don’t understand your comment. I’m not advocating for more cautious rules. I’m advocating for due process. The rules should be what we feel is necessary.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#512

Post by JediWing »

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

7 people in a fairly specific demographic (women 18-38, I believe), when there are 2 other alternative vaccinations available.

Do we have any data on the total number of women 18-38 who received this vaccine? It may actually be fairly low given we may have selection bias to give these vaccines to an older population.

The outcome may simply be to recommend that members in this demographic avoid this particular vaccine until further analysis is done.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#513

Post by throwawayboise »

majewsky wrote: post #76
cheph wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern How did they establish that there are no long term side effects?

Not a doctor, but from what I've heard from immunologists, vaccines in general are incredibly unlikely to have long-term side effects on the scales that you think about. When an immunologist talks about "long-term side effects" of a vaccination, they're usually considering time ranges on the order of 6-8 weeks. Meanwhile, the 10000s of patients from the big Phase 3 trials have been vaccinated for 6-9 months, so the u…

The mRNA vaccines are new. We don't know that our experience with other vaccine types will be exactly the same.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#514

Post by bluGill »

jdhn wrote: post #68

Here's a question for someone smarter than me. Is there a chance that this number (six cases in seven million doses) will rise as regulators comb through previous reports of adverse effects?

Yes, but not from previous reports. See the other responses about how previous reports are handled. I would expect cases to rise as unreported things get reported, and as doctors start to ask the right questions when they see these events and report things that previously wouldn't have been reported but probably should have. Not to mention that with these reports I expect doctors to ask the right questions and so previously misdiagnosed events get diagnosed correctly (some of these might be unrelated to the vaccine though making the data messy).

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#515

Post by HWR_14 »

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

It's not the risk of clots. It's the risk of vaccine hesitancy because people fear a cover up. I think that's outweighed by the increased vaccine hesitancy because people only hear this scary story and not the low numbers (see also AstroZeneca).

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#516

Post by sp332 »

vmception wrote: post #469
sp332 wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They didn't pause it because they're considering cancelling it. They're pausing it so they can communicate to patients and providers what to look out for after they take it. Once processes are in place to handle future blood clot events, they will resume vaccinations.

I’ve been thinking about this, the communication has been so bad from public and private health officials for 15 months straight. When not considering any externalities, anti-vaxxers and everyone that comes up with anti-industry and anti-establishment conclusions is rational, but inaccurate only because they dont consider what was not said. Even with regard to COVID itself, most of the official communication is about…

The reason for the pause was explicitly stated by the health officials as quoted in the article, so I don't know why you'd say this was unclear let alone unsaid.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#517

Post by Izkata »

base698 wrote: post #314
splithalf wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything in life has potential epigenetic effects! Not sure what you are trying to communicate with your comment but it sounds like you are saying people should avoid the mRNA vax but then you also say “almost certainly no long term effects.” Your thesis seems to be that 10 years is enough time to know for sure that they are safe. Why is 10 years the right amount of time? Why not 50 years or 5? In other words what’…

50 would certainly cover all life stages of humans. I assume you could be sure with shorter. I have an aviation, biochem, and skydiving background. My rule is for aviation: "if it hasn't been out five years you're a test jumper." Humans are way more complex than airplanes. I personally wouldn't take the mRNA vaccine because of this rule. Coupled with being unable to sue or get help from the government I think people…

> I think people IN LOW RISK groups have been way too enthusiastic to sign up.

About that...

> In December, we asked, “What percentage of people who have been infected by the coronavirus needed to be hospitalized?”

> The correct answer is not precisely known, but it is highly likely to be between 1% and 5% according to the best available estimates, and it is unlikely to be much higher or lower. We discuss the data and logic behind this conclusion in the appendix.

> Less than one in five U.S. adults (18%) give a correct answer of between 1 and 5%. Many adults (35%) say that at least half of infected people need hospitalization.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-misinformation-is-dis...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#518

Post by cma »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #386
yboris wrote: post #312

Relevant tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1381967753234411530 J&J doses delivered: 7 million. Reported blood clotting events: 6. Daily risk of dying of COVID19 in the US: 1 in 330,000. CDC and FDA: Pause the J&J vaccine. Draw your own conclusion on how aligned these folks are with your interests.

This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

> The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

Isn't it just person (1 person), not people, at this point?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#519

Post by jonplackett »

CamelCaseName wrote: post #483
jonplackett wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are for the AstraZeneca vaccine which also has this ‘issue’. It compares the risks of dying from a blood clot after the AZ vaccine (about 1 in a million) to the risks we happily take every single day. http://whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today

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HN classic. upgraded its dyno a bit. Thought cloudflare would save me...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#520

Post by bluGill »

DangerousPie wrote: post #24
Eduard wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is kneejerk statistics 101 reaction. * Hormonal birth control - years of research. Years of evidence and practice. Knowing what to do when this and that happens. Recommendations for women with known conditions not to take this and that hormonal birth control. * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. I'm fine with anyone to make a decision o…

> * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. That is completely untrue. This vaccine has been through several clinical trials for months. We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern. The reason we are only seeing this one now is that it is so rare.

The clinical trials have been for months on limited numbers of people. Given this seems to be a 1 in a million situation the odds are against those trials discovering them.
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