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Moore's Law for Everything

moores.samaltman.com

511–520 of 554 posts

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But again, it seems like there are physical limits to how much people can consume. Like, we can agree that if everyone had a machine that could magically summon up to 10 thousand cubic meters of material every day, we realistically would have universal material abundance. Even if we exceeded what the boxes could make, one or two dedicated to making more would result in runaway exponential growth that would speed up m…

Then people would create television shows demonstrating innovative ways go waste 10,000 cubic meters of material every day. I'm not convinced human stupidity is bounded.

> I'm not convinced human stupidity is bounded

I kind of am? Besides, people don't need to never be stupid again, they just need to become stupider at a slower rate than productivity increases. If hour by hour production significantly increased, how could people possibly waste enough?

More importantly, would they? We waste resources to signal wealth. Wasting an ever greater proportion of your allocated geyser of materials doesn't signal anything.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#512
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a good sign that per-capita energy consumption is decreasing in the US; there are limits to consumption.

Does that take into account the energy needed to produce what Americans consume?

Yes, that's almost all of per-capita energy consumption. It would be a really dumb metric otherwise.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People can't all reliably afford food and shelter, so I don't think lifestyle inflation is the real problem.

Overpopulation is a problem. People will claim that the plant can support 20 billion+ people but they conveniently forget that these people will have an incredibly low standard of living. Even if we were to assume that an arbitrarily low standard of living is acceptable, at some point that standard of living will include mass starvation and death so there is a real capacity limit. Being well below that limit is a vir…

That I'm definitely not convinced of. With current levels of technology, poverty in a global setting has more to due with infrastructure and unrest than it does actual shortages. I suspect that we could pack on even more people with the industrialization of the third world, vastly increasing productivity.

More importantly, there's absolutely no reason to think that technology will somehow stop pushing the carrying capacity further. More people will yield more innovation, yielding more growth, yielding more people. If there's an endpoint to that, I doubt we'll see it any time soon. Yes, I too see how insane it is to think that sometime relatively soon global GDP will double twice in a year. But twice in a decade would be just as crazy 500 years ago.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But can people be unemployed because we run out of things for humans to do? -- You'll always have something that some other human wants the human X to do. Whether that other person can pay human X sufficient money to make that activity their job is the question. And it seems plausible you'll reach a point where the answer will be no for a lot of people. You can call that "structural" if you wish but it seems related…

Anything that can be a job. Whatever people are willing to pay others to do, limited only by imagination. And just from the definition of money, it's unlikely to find a scenario where people can't pay other people to do arbitrary labor. There will always be people that have a majority of wealth, however that's denoted It's not possible for civilization as a whole to run out of jobs or money. both are human social con…

>limited only by imagination //

And by availability of resources, such as energy.

From the industrial revolution we've being living in a time of effectively limitless energy and without having considered the consequences of tapping that energy. Fossil fuels, and other resources are running out - or we can at least see the end of them - and the consequences of their use are starting to bite hard. Realistically we're looking at a 2degC average global temperature rise this century, and the destruction of ecosystems due to that relatively rapid rise is going to be massive.

When the energy and resources, that we've used to support a consumption economy, grow more scarce that economy will no longer work. We won't be able to get ourselves out of low employment by just consuming more and so making more jobs.

>There will always be people that have a majority of wealth, however that's denoted

That may be true but we can narrow the spread of wealth by a very large factor; and morally we should do so.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because "society" decides they are no longer productive. You have to consider the benchmark. Do people deserve to live in a castle if they aren't productive enough? Living in a single family home in the middle of NYC requires a whole lot of productivity because you are literally displacing dozens of other people. You have to be as productive as all those people combined to be worthy of replacing them.

So by your accounting, if I purchase a home in Stockton, CA right now, then in 40 years when I'm old and can't afford the taxes on my lifelong home because Stockton is huge then, I'm to be kicked out for a more productive use?

More likely, the government would place a lien on your property, and when you die or sell your home, the profits would be used to pay for the deferred tax, rather than simply accruing to you or your heirs.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The estimation of 15% loss of market cap due to the 2.5% cap tax is laughable. That is effectively a reverse buyback of 2.5% every year. It would leave many companies with 0 or negative profit. Any company with P/E above 40 immediately loses money. 20 has their profit chopped in half. The values of these companies would be reduced by at least 50%.

Um....so what? Stock market is the way to efficiently allocate capital. If value of every company is halved it changes nothing to relative performance of them.

This tax would raise much much less money than Sam expects.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#517
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If being taxed 2.5% a year counts as being "forced out," then staying in a highly productive area of land indefinitely is "forcing" people who can otherwise move to your house to stay poor. Never mind that it's the wealthy are the ones who benefit from elimination of property taxes. It's society that makes the property valuable in the first place, so it makes sense to pay society back. The firefighters, schools, and…

> If being taxed 2.5% a year counts as being "forced out," then staying in a highly productive area of land indefinitely is "forcing" people who can otherwise move to your house to stay poor. “Otherwise” is doing a lot of work here. The people can’t “otherwise” move there because the person isn’t selling, that’s the idea. Taxing people so they are forced to sell is forcing them out. Not taxing people so they are not…

> You’ve yet to explain why the people who do live there have less of a claim to the house than the wealthier people who would buy it from them.

You've yet to explain why the people living there have more of a claim to the land than anyone else in society. The model you've proposed is basically "first come first serve" (ie. homesteading principle). Except even that doesn't apply given that some of the land currently in private ownership was previously used by others, who were forced off it, via colonization in North America, and the enclosure acts in Europe. Should we return the land to the descendants of the Native Americans?

Given that land is a scarce good, and access to good land gives substantial benefits to those with access, "first come first serve" simply isn't a workable way to allocate land. Those with land are able to charge rents to those without, and they can pass this privilege down to their heirs, keeping this inequality going.

> Its not at all clear that property owners benefit disproportionately from social services, and they also pay for those services through taxes.

Here's a simple example. Suppose the government decides to build a new transit line going to the edge of the city. The rents and property values along the line will increase. And in most places, income and sales taxes fund at least part of the cost. So renters will pay some of the cost, but get no financial benefit, while also paying increased rents. On the other hand, the landowners will pay some of the cost, but they'll also profit from the increased rents and land values. Essentially, renters pay "twice" for government services: once for the actual service, and then again when the existence of the service leads to higher rents, which are then reaped by landowners.

> I think most of this recent fascination with Georgism is a result of California tax policy and doesn’t withstand a cursory economic analysis.

Basically every economist agrees with the principles behind Georgism, starting from Adam Smith and David Ricardo, and continuing to modern economists like Milton Friedman and Joseph Stiglitz, so I don't really know what you're talking about here.

You should read about the Law of Rent by Ricardo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_rent), which basically states what I have said here: land rent is equal to the marginal economic advantage, which is obviously not created by the landowner.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should there be a limit? If you can command robots to build anything you can ever imagine, who doesn't want his own Versailles - with impressive towers like the Burj Khalifa? Who doesn't want to fly their jet or space rocket just for fun to the moon and back? And humans will be humans. There will be new games, like drone wars on distant planets, where any production capacity and energy will be used. And since eve…

I don't; one can only drive one car at a time, one can only be in one room at a time, one can only eat one stomach full of food in a given period, one can only read/watch/experience at most 24 hours of media in a day. Once your Versailles is big enough, you won't be able to walk it in a day. Once it's bigger than that, you won't be able to drive its length in a day. Once it's bigger than that, you won't be able to tr…

Endless hedonism is boring until there is competition. DenisM mentions status in his comment. Status will demand Versailles bigger than can be passed at light speed during a life, just to impress. There will be galaxies full of combat drones, just to keep the balance in fighting power.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#519
post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, I don't know if that's true. The main counter evidence to your hypothesis were the defections of scientists and engineers to the USSR, the amount of brilliant people that regretted the fall of the USSR, and so on. For example, one of my brilliant math teachers was from a Soviet state, and had the opportunity to leave all along - he only did so as the USSR fell and he did not see any prospect in the East anymore.…

See, I know that is true. I was unlucky enough to grow up behind the iron curtain. I know the situation directly from the choices faced by my parents and their friends and after its fall I watched the best of my teachers slowly but surely emigrate to Canada or the Western Europe. You can't really understand how it was unless you lived it. First of all, patriotism ceased to exist, except for propaganda. Struggle and f…

I don't doubt the experience.

The issue is, you're just someone on the internet. The real people I know disagree with you, and so do statistics, so while I completely empathize with you, I can't agree.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#520

I don't buy this whole idea of technological progress being exponential, let alone monotonic. The average piece of software made in 2021 does less, runs slower and is more difficult to maintain than the average piece of software from 2001. Consumer-grade CPUs haven't seen a drastic increase in performance for around a decade too. I'm still running an i7-2600k that was released in 2010. A current-tech Ryzen 7 has mayb…

I agree. Not to mention is it all really that different? I'm a little bit older, and admittedly I was living in the future when I was younger, but 20 years ago wasn't that different for me. Back in 2001, I was sitting on a computer even a laptop! I was reading conversations on the internet, watching videos, and listening to music. Not much has changed in 20 years. I have a better pocket computer. I had a smartphone b…

Consider that you grew up in the most technology advanced part of the world.

In 2001 we had dial-up and an IBM machine with paint. I was probably one of the few kids with a computer.

Technology is not homogenous across the globe, and advancement also means lots of people getting access to what we consider the norm.

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