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The Battle of GameStop

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Re: The Battle of GameStop

#511

Post by TurkishPoptart »

Mobleysoft wrote: post #76
IIAOPSW wrote: post #15

I've wrote this elsewhere. The thing that's clicked for me after reading the comments on wsb is that populism, amplified by the modern internet, is going to radically change the finance world in a similar way to how it radically changed our political landscape. These people aren't just investing in GME to enrich themselves. They are doing it to spite the people who they percieve as rigging the game. They are doing it…

I'm up 180% over the year. Peanuts compared to the WSB people, but I got there with my own intuition. I'm looking into food and entertainment for my next picks. I think the populace will need them over the next year before a general return to the before times mid 2022. We'll see.

Is it worthwhile to buy long-term calls and puts then? Like 6-9 months out?

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#512

Post by delaaxe »

chii wrote: post #203
hacker_9 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Psychology has always been part of the market, and this event can be explained by Soros' theory of reflexivity - that the stock market leads the fundementals, not the other way around. Once you forgo the efficient market hypothesis (and it's never been more obvious how incorrect this is), this event makes more sense. Same as Tesla, momentum is a psychological event lead by a positive feedback loop.

why do you need to forgo the efficient market hypothesis? The market as a whole takes into account the psychology of people as well, because peole participating in the market do so.

Not a single person who believed in the efficient market hypothesis ever made a lot of money.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#513

Post by thaumasiotes »

SilasX wrote: post #481
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GME can always issue more shares and that will give them a sizable injection of cash.

I thought that takes a lot of time though, because of SEC filings, after which the bubble could be over. Or are they allowed to hold on to a bunch of ready-to-go shares? (Honestly asking and don't know, everyone please only answer if you have knowledge of how these kinds of things work and are able to identify and explain away the relevant confusions.)

What I know is basically just what I read in this article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-25/the-ga...

However, it looks very clear that GameStop is allowed to hold on to a bunch of shares it can sell directly in the stock market, since it did exactly that:

> Happily, GameStop does have an ATM offering going. It put it in place on Dec. 8, 2020, when the stock was at about $16.35. The way these things work is that GameStop disclosed that its bank could sell stock—up to $100 million worth—“from time to time” at GameStop’s request “consistent with its normal trading and sales practices”; it did not disclose any particular schedule, and has not yet reported if any shares have been sold, or how many, or when. So I don’t know if GameStop had sold the whole $100 million before Friday’s wild run, or if it had any stock left over to sell; if it had any left over, I don’t know if it sold it all on Friday. I hope it did!

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#514

Post by delaaxe »

gvhst wrote: post #367
pxue wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is exactly it. people say the market is a melt up.. another bubble. but i think that's wrong. It's like the show Billions, actual wallstreet does what wsb is doing ALL THE TIME. You make money when someone else loses money, it's simple. Except this time, the money isn't staying in the fraternity, it's being distributed out to the common folks. Can't have that it seems.

I can assure you that most folks on wall street (speaking about most of the multi-manager hedge funds specifically) have significantly tighter risk limits than anyone on WSB. Frequently drawdowns of even 5-10% can get your sized reduce or get you fired. The YOLO attitude that WSB has is closer to the film "the wolf of wall street" than what actually happens. While Billions is one of the more realistic shows about fin…

Oh yeah? Risk limits so tight that one of largest hedge funds needed a 2.75 billion bailout to cover their losses on a single short position? https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-point72-to-invest-2-75-...

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#515

Post by mmglr »

ivanech wrote: post #427
dvt wrote: post #6

> The same emotion that caused us to root for the thieves in Ocean’s 11 is what makes Wall Street Bets so enticing. Put frankly, Millennials are tired of getting fucked by the man. When you’re underemployed with $100,000 in student loan debt, your financial situation feels overwhelming. You really don’t want to take the advice of your parents or CNBC talking heads [5] to invest 10% of your salary for a 4% annual retu…

Somebody wrote a reply to the above comment saying that people should simply not have student loan debt and then promptly deleted it before I could post the following reply: Big ask to expect teenagers to be able to project the marginal benefit of college education (inherently uncertain and speculative) and to also estimate the real, not nominal, burden of the loans to the future (again, inherently uncertain and spec…

There is certainly a problem with how teenagers are misinformed about college, and that education debit is difficult to discharge.

However, I do agree that one should have little to no student loan debt. I am a millennial and was able to graduate without student loan debt. I went to community college then transferred to a state school. I earned a scholarship to do a masters in computer science. Then I found a six figure income job at a medium sized company not FAANG or some startup. All I did was found a degree that had a high ROI by googling which was at the time CS.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#516

Post by delaaxe »

fennecfoxen wrote: post #9
vga805 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the bull thesis has been laid out in detail for months and it's a good one, this is organic interest, Ryan Cohen and others coming over from Chewy was the most recent catalyst

People exist who in the past two days paid $150 for a share that most analysts think is worth about $14 — at a company with negative earnings for six of the last seven quarters, and minimal earnings growth over the past few years. I'm sure there was some bull case for the company, and it might have had a snowball's chance in hell around $14 or even $20/share. But at $60+ ? What on God's good earth is supposed to make…

There's a long term bull price target at $169: https://www.gmedd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/GMEdd-GameS...

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#517

Post by kbelder »

blackrock wrote: post #242
dvt wrote: post #6

> The same emotion that caused us to root for the thieves in Ocean’s 11 is what makes Wall Street Bets so enticing. Put frankly, Millennials are tired of getting fucked by the man. When you’re underemployed with $100,000 in student loan debt, your financial situation feels overwhelming. You really don’t want to take the advice of your parents or CNBC talking heads [5] to invest 10% of your salary for a 4% annual retu…

It’s even worse than this. The government feigns that they can’t do anything. And that everything is the result of the market. Meanwhile, they easily pass bills to increase their own pay, or find magic money to pay for their military wars. And then, after screwing up the 2008 crisis, they stopped building homes. And the homes that were foreclosed on, they allowed the rich corporations to buy them up for pennies on th…

$700,000 is a mansion in all but a few parts of the country. I suspect your view is distorted by your local environment.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#518

Post by delaaxe »

mizzack wrote: post #357
0b01 wrote: post #7

Citadel can see 80% of retail orderflow such as Robinhood and is massively long since last Friday as can be seen from the calls they are selling. Now it is likely the steam has run out(gamma cascade) so they are placing their bets on the opposite side by taking over Melvin which is massively short without causing too much market impact.

The steam didn't run out. They changed the rules. Bid/Ask spread on GME options is now $20 until 3/19.

Max bid/ask spread and only on options > $100

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#519

Post by kyawzazaw »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #486
55555 wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’ve come to think that maybe young person can YOLO a bit against the odds somewhere in life. If something returns poorly on average, but has high payouts at the top it might just work out. Your life won’t be the average case but single sample. This is indeed, after all, a website about founding startups.

The only difference between being a founder and gambling is the social signaling. In both cases, luck is a larger component than grit (lots of amazing folks have failed through no fault of their own). No shame in gambling your way to wealth if you don't care about the social signaling.

I bet there is some sort of positive social signaling in gambling your way to wealth as long as you succeed

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#520

Post by kyawzazaw »

gruez wrote: post #381
ollifi wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

/r/wsb is kind of insanity, but I’ve come to think that maybe young person can YOLO a bit against the odds somewhere in life. If something returns poorly on average, but has high payouts at the top it might just work out. Your life won’t be the average case but single sample. Lottery is too improbable but some other things ”no rational person would do” can be ok. Main thing is to get over with it soon and protect the…

>If something returns poorly on average, but has high payouts at the top it might just work out. Your life won’t be the average case but single sample. This almost certainly results in a worse average outcome, because of diminishing returns on income. Winning a 10M jackpot won't bring you 10,000 times the happiness compared to finding $1000 on the ground.

Maybe if you are thinking in terms of being able to purchase things and financial security.

Things that bring me joy are being able to donate enormously to solve social problems in my quality. I can say for certainty that it will bring me 10,000 times happiness.

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