Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

dol.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

511–520 of 563 posts

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#511

Post by gwd »

rckoepke wrote: post #503
gwd wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember that 100 years ago, and then again 80 years ago, large percentages of men in Europe were removed from their own countries and sent somewhere else; ships transporting food and supplies were actively sunk, houses and factories were bombed to smithereens. In spite of the massive economic damage that caused, civilization did not descend into anarchy, and very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death. CO…

>very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death [during WWII]. If it's relevant, 3 million people in India died due to widespread starvation during World War 2 caused by British colonial and war-time policies. Additionally all their cloth production was used by the British war effort, so many Indians went without clothes during that period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943#Cloth_fa...

Right, I remember listening to an episode of Revisionist History about that [1]. Outrageous and shameful.

I'd have to listen to the episode again, but I think the most outrageous and shameful thing about it is that it wasn't actually necessary. The way Gladwell portrays it, they died mostly due to the personal spite of one person.

[1] http://revisionisthistory.com/episodes/15-the-prime-minister...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#512

Post by buzzkillington »

malandrew wrote: post #422
jiofih wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US economy looks more like a pyramid scheme than ever.

The virtuous cycle provided by a functioning market is not a pyramid scheme. Not even close. Pyramid schemes transfer wealth from the bottom to the top while creating no new additional wealth . America is creating tons of additional wealth and how much each gets from that wealth is proportional to one's leverage and one's leverage is generally proportional to how much one is able to contribute to wealth generation (i…

The US has destroyed nearly one trillion dollars in wealth for the bottom 50% since 1989:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#513

Post by tachyonbeam »

koheripbal wrote: post #507
kazen44 wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the problem with your statement that NOT doing any of the counter measures (like self isolation) would result in the overloading of the healthcare system and many people dying. (heck, the healthcare system in the US seems to be overloaded already). When you have no further option for healthcare because the system is broken and overloaded, why would going into work make any sense if it resulted in either an period of…

Because the vast majority of people under the retirement age resolve the illness in a week or two without the need for healthcare assistance. The people who need to be locked-down are those over 60 - not the entire population.

There are also measures that can be taken that are not a complete lockdown, eg: limiting public events, temperature monitoring in workplaces, etc.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#514

Post by buzzkillington »

throwanem wrote: post #390
agarden wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a reasonable line of thought, but incomplete. How many lives are we risking by tanking the global economy? That seems like it should be a more quantifiable risk. It becomes a trade-off between the amount of lives we can calculate will be lost via our pandemic-prevention measures (and to what degree of certainty) and the number that might be lost without them (and to what degree of certainty). The trade-off is…

Okay, but you have to look at both sides of it. How many people aren't dying in road traffic accidents that don't happen because of isolation? How many people aren't dying of diseases they won't develop because reduced economic output has also reduced the output of carcinogens and toxins produced by manufacturing that's not being done? And like that - those are just the first two examples off the top of my head; ther…

Now do a calculation that includes a world war with nuclear weapons, because that's what happens when you hit 30% unemployment.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#515

Post by blueline »

trhway wrote: post #478
apatters wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the unemployment rate continues to rise at this pace (about 7% every two weeks), it will match the peak during the Great Depression (25%) around the end of April. That's 40 million people who will have no income and likely no health care in the middle of a pandemic. Not sure how to process this information honestly.

>That's 40 million people who will have no income and likely no health care in the middle of a pandemic. if the government were to help regular people that would be say $1T/40M = $25K - one can survive a month or two on that (and those money would have naturally trickled promptly up thus also supporting the top of the economy - corporations, banks, etc. - instead of being directly accumulated there like in the curren…

>$25K - one can survive a month or two on that

US median yearly household income is about $61k

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#516

Post by Leherenn »

rootusrootus wrote: post #472
throwanem wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the fashion industry right now, I get the layoff worries. But, okay, worst case, I get laid off and then I get a less cushy job in an industry that's less affected. Maybe I draw down my savings for a couple of months before I find one. It's not the end of the world. That's a major benefit of having a skillset as portable as ours. I'd definitely rather risk that than risk a couple million people dying over the…

> What effect on the economy do you expect would come of that? On the economy? Very little. Most of the people dying are not in the job market any more nor are they big consumers. It might even reduce the load slightly on Social Security and Medicare. No, the risk of letting a couple million extra people die this year is a social/moral one, not an economic one IMO.

Even in countries with no lockdown in place, economic activity is way down. For instance in Sweden, at least when I read about it a few days ago, restaurants and everything were still open.

If I remember correctly, they had between 10-20% of the usual activity.

Even if it's not mandated, people don't want to take the risk, either for others or for themselves.

All of this to say: I don't think the options are between close the economy to save people (at least short term), and don't close the economy and bear the hit. The latest one is not an option, the economy will mostly shut down by itself

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#517

Post by tmountain »

Retric wrote: post #489
tmountain wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That thinking negates the economic impact that a bunch of people dying is going to have on the economy. There are really two options here. 1) A huge impact on the economy and fewer people die. 2) A huge impact on the economy and lots of people die. Nobody has the capability to predict the real outcome of one scenario over the other from an economic perspective. If the US does everything perfectly, we'll probably lose…

That’s incredibly simplified. Policy makers don’t have a simple switch to which results in some specific known outcome. Nobody wants millions of Americans to die or for another outbreak to happen in 6+ months. Unfortunately, avoiding both without shutting everything down until a vaccine is developed is tricky.

I'm pointing at the fact that it keeps getting presented like a binary decision in the media over and over again, and that's not an appropriate characterization.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#518

Post by throwanem »

buzzkillington wrote: post #514
throwanem wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, but you have to look at both sides of it. How many people aren't dying in road traffic accidents that don't happen because of isolation? How many people aren't dying of diseases they won't develop because reduced economic output has also reduced the output of carcinogens and toxins produced by manufacturing that's not being done? And like that - those are just the first two examples off the top of my head; ther…

Now do a calculation that includes a world war with nuclear weapons, because that's what happens when you hit 30% unemployment.

How on Earth do you figure that?

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#519

Post by greedo »

standardUser wrote: post #486
greedo wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a state barely touched by COVID-19. Since Mar 15, I've never seen a roll of TP in any of the stores in town. Not Costco, Sam's Club, Target or the local grocery chain. I feel bad for people who didn't manage to stock up.

You speak as if the toilet paper factories have shut down and the delivery trucks are all sitting idle. Everyone decided to rush the stores and buy up all of the toilet paper, and unsurprisingly the stores don't stock enough for every household to buy 200 rolls in the same week. All you need to do is wait for the next delivery to show up (which it will). The problem is, people like you will continue to buy up everyth…

Thanks for the ad hominem and patronizing reply. I haven't been trying to buy TP, I just noticed it was missing every time. There may be plenty of TP (and other goods) in the pipeline, but that doesn't matter to the end user. They're just SOL because there's so little slack in supply chain management anymore.

Your post was completely and factually incorrect, then you not only blame me, but blame the people trying to adjust to a supply issue. How do you determine "what you need plus only a little extra" when you can't determine when TP will be in stock? It's been weeks now, and it's perfectly rational to buy more than you need since you can't count on the supply chain.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#520

Post by greedo »

0xffff2 wrote: post #336
greedo wrote: post #323

The long term scars of this upcoming Depression will be unlike anything anyone under 70 has experienced. And the scars will be long lasting. My mother in law used to use Cool Whip containers for leftovers. When we'd visit, she'd send us home with food packed in them. Usually stuff like mashed potatoes, but often good stuff too. And when we'd visit her in a few weeks/month, she'd ask where her containers were. This wa…

A 70 year old today was born in 1950. What have they experienced that's worse than this? I think this is going to be unlike anything in living memory.

My point is that unless you're really old, this is probably one of the worst things you'll experience. Of course that's a Western-centric view. Off the top of my head I think the Cultural Revolution would be worse, the Partition of India would be up there, and the incessant warring and instability in Africa as decolonization occurred.
Post reply on HN