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AI winter is well on its way

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Re: AI winter is well on its way

#511

Post by BoomWav »

Animats wrote: post #69
skybrian wrote: post #50

The argument is that self-driving won't work because Uber and Tesla had well-publicized crashes. But I don't see how this tells us anything about other, apparently more cautious companies like Waymo. There seem to be significant differences in technology. More generally, machine learning is a broad area and there's no reason to believe that different applications of it will all succeed or all fail for similar reasons…

The argument is that self-driving won't work because Uber and Tesla had well-publicized crashes. But I don't see how this tells us anything about other, apparently more cautious companies like Waymo. There seem to be significant differences in technology. Yes. I've been saying this for a while. Waymo's approach is about 80% geometry, 20% AI. Profile the terrain, and only drive where it's flat. The AI part is for tryi…

A lot of companies fear the ship's leaving without them. They try to rush ahead without thinking and then crashes. That's what it feels like every time a car company or another tech company say they're going to build the next self-driving car. I don't know why but I always feel like waymo is already 10,000 miles ahead.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#512

Post by pfisch »

Scea91 wrote: post #327
pfisch wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"it's likely 1000+ years away." That seems like a pretty high number when you consider the exponential rate of technological advancement. 1000 years in the future is probably going to be completely unrecognizable to us given the current rate of change in society/tech.

True exponentials exist very rarely. What we are used to call exponential is often at most quadratic and even then the trend usually exists only for some limited time window. I wouldn't dare to make prediction about mankind 1000 years from now based on a relatively short time window of technological growth. There are many huge obstacles in the way.

Even the present would be mostly unrecognizable to someone who lived 1000 years ago.

1000 years from now will certainly be even stranger to us.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#513

Post by scardine »

jimothywales wrote: post #458
scardine wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know any problem where blockchains are the best solution - it is possible there are some, I don't know. I'm just talking about the very inflated social/political expectations, the "blockchain will change everything" mantra: I don't see this happening.

How can we know if a solution is effective if we have not studied it thoroughly enough? There might be use cases for blockchain that have yet to be probed. It's certainly being taken seriously in the finance industry, especially in terms of financial records-keeping and accounting for governance by regulatory bodies.

> There might be use cases for blockchain that have yet to be probed.

This is like saying "you can't prove god does not exist". It is true but pointless.

> It's certainly being taken seriously in the finance industry, especially in terms of financial records-keeping and accounting for governance by regulatory bodies.

Precisely tasks where there are so many solutions both more efficient and time-proven! With so much hype around the idea the industry has to take a peek but sooner or later they will face reality: the king is naked.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#515

Post by mathattack »

bitL wrote: post #348

I was recently "playing" with some radiology data. I had no chance to identify diagnoses myself with untrained eyes, something that probably takes years for a decent radiologist to master. Just by using DenseNet-BC-100-12 I ended up with 83% ROC AUC after a few hours of training. In 4 out of 12 categories this classifier beat best human performing radiologists. Now the very same model with no other change than adjust…

How much of this can we pin on IBM's overhype of Watson?

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#516

Post by sram1337 »

pasabagi wrote: post #485
khawkins wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why it's wise for researchers and business leaders to temper expectations. Better a constant modest flow of money into the field than a boom-bust cycle with huge upfront investment followed by very bearish actions.

I think the problem is, that's absolutely against the specific interests of university departments, individual researchers, and newspapers - even if it's in the interest of the field as a whole.

Prisoner's Dilemma

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#517

Post by machinelearning »

bitL wrote: post #348

I was recently "playing" with some radiology data. I had no chance to identify diagnoses myself with untrained eyes, something that probably takes years for a decent radiologist to master. Just by using DenseNet-BC-100-12 I ended up with 83% ROC AUC after a few hours of training. In 4 out of 12 categories this classifier beat best human performing radiologists. Now the very same model with no other change than adjust…

Yea this sounds extremely unlikely unless the other dataset has a fairly easy decision boundary. The kind of cross-domain transfer learning you seem to think deep neural networks have is nothing I've observed before in my formal studies of neural network

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#518

Post by visarga »

meh2frdf wrote: post #464
visarga wrote: post #306

AI winter is not "on its way". There is AI hype and anti-AI hype, and then there is actual practice. This article is anti-AI hype, just as bad as its opposite. In practice there are tons of useful applications. We haven't even begun to apply ML and DL to all the problems laying around us, some of which are quite accessible and impactful. The hype cycle will pass with time, when we learn to align our expectations with…

Give us a list then, because what I’m seeing is shoehorning “AI” into everything but not with significant results.

It's not my job to supplement the press or to do paper reading for you. If you're really interested in AI and don't just read the clickbait press, then open Arxiv and look there.

http://www.arxiv-sanity.com/

If, on the other hand, your opinion that AI is in a winter has been already decided without reading the latest scientific papers, then there's nothing I can say to you that will change your mind.

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