I've made about $110k profit this year in crypto on a $21k investment earlier this year, and I think this is all a giant bubble. I was at my parents' house for Thanksgiving and a commercial with Ron Paul talking about Bitcoin came on, which coincided with around the time it went to $10k, and it hit me really hard that this isn't going to last forever (and probably will hurt sooner rather than later). I liquidated eve…
So what you're saying is I'm getting 0% cash back and paying .7% more for everything. Still doesn't sound like a win to me, and it still doesn't matter what card you get because no card is giving you more back than they're making off your use of it. That's not how money works.
You're paying 0.7% primarily for the ability to pay, and also for the ability to pay on credit, to get a chargeback if needed, to cover fraudulent use of your physical payment device including loss, etc. This is a) a good deal on its own and b) a much better deal than Bitcoin, which provides only the first of those things, and only reaches 0.7% if your transaction is over about 3000 USD. If you think this is a bad de…
A better deal is a debit card (somewhat fewer protections but saves people probably a 1% fee on average) but unfortunately the banks have set it up as a tragedy of the commons where it makes sense for me to get my 1-2% cashback since the 2.7% credit card fee is already built into the price due to other people.
With regards to Bitcoin though, I agree you need a much lower fee coin to make it feasible. The lightning network brings the transaction fees on Bitcoin to zero though from what I understand so maybe thats the answer.
I think the really difficult part might be figuring out when to take it off the table. For example, let's say bitcoin goes up 10x. Then do you decide to sell, because it might crash back down the next week? But what if you miss out on another huge increase by selling?
Yeah, this is the dilemma, but can't beat yourself up too much over it. I mined my first bitcoin in February 2011 just out of interest in this cool experiment, not expecting it to go anywhere. I've always had a bit of btc in reserve but every time there's a big jump the impulse is "Better sell out of this silly bubble while I can". People who imagine that they'd have $50M today neglect that they'd most likely have ha…
You have essentially described what economists call positive feedback. Positive feedback loops are self-fulfilling.
That’s a risk on any day of any calendar year. We can find points and counterpoints to prove any scenario.
That was my point... OP had cherry picked the examples of microsoft and amazon to support the claim that buying and holding cryptocurrency through a bubble is a smart investment, which is of course absurd.
What I meant was that if you distribute your money across all cryptocurrencies even if some of them become worthlesss you won’t have anything to regret, in he long run. I don’t know if anyone who had the foresight to cherrypick MSFT and AMZN. Most of them invested in the tech basket. This is just general diversification principle nothing new
> a very complex and innovative product. The main point here is that there's absolutely nothing innovative about BTC anymore, if anything it's way behind. Which is why the valuation is so suspect; it's totally disconnected from the utility BTC provides compared to alts. Anything BTC does, alts do better, except for marketing.
> The main point here is that there's absolutely nothing innovative about BTC anymore That demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of what makes bitcoin valuable, and what separates it from all other competitors. Bitcoin node decentralization is what keeps it censorship resistant, and in bitcoin node decentralization, it is ahead of any and all competitors. It likely has more fully validating nodes than all…
> a very complex and innovative product. The main point here is that there's absolutely nothing innovative about BTC anymore, if anything it's way behind. Which is why the valuation is so suspect; it's totally disconnected from the utility BTC provides compared to alts. Anything BTC does, alts do better, except for marketing.
> The main point here is that there's absolutely nothing innovative about BTC anymore That demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of what makes bitcoin valuable, and what separates it from all other competitors. Bitcoin node decentralization is what keeps it censorship resistant, and in bitcoin node decentralization, it is ahead of any and all competitors. It likely has more fully validating nodes than all…
With amounts this large they could meet in person to trade.
If you have to do that, it doesn't seem particularly advantageous over existing methods. You're meeting in person, exchanging cash illicitly, etc. If someone is willing to do that, why not just buy USD in a foreign bank account directly? (That's my understanding of the current system; people with clean histories open accounts with varying amounts of money in USD / EUR / JPY jurisdictions, then transfer control of tho…
I don't disagree with this, but if true, then it means that the value of cryptocurrency comes at the expense of other currencies. Every time someone in china sells their renminbi to buy bitcoin, bitcoin's value increases while the value of renminbi decreases. If that is the case, then bitcoin does indeed have value, and will reflect the differential of the cost of renminbi vis-a-vis its value on the world market.
> we tap our Visa card to pay instantly with no fees I hope you mean realize that merchants eat the fee and are contractually not allowed to offer discounts for cash payments. And many of them are not happy about this situation.
The solution to this is way easier than blockchain: Just regulate them. Personal credit card fees in the EU are capped at 0.3% and everybody is better off.
I think the necessity for regulation shows that unregulated payment processors leads to market failure (due to the nature of that market under current non-blockchain tech). Regulatuon fixes this market failure, but I see regulation as a last resort due to its being a high overhead solution (you rely on courts to interpret the regulations or check the statutory agencies, on the agencies to do their work, on lawmakers to keep the laws up to date). Of course, it is an open question as to whether blockchain tech can lead to the payment processor market not to suffer from market failure if unregulated.
Bitcoin doesn't have fundamentals. Stocks are a claim on assets, buildings, inventories, and future profits. Real shit, like a parking lot full of trucks or something. Those are the fundamentals. Cryptocurrencies dont have anything like that. To the extent that there is an analogous concept it's their utility as a means of exchange. Which outside of drugs and hard drive ransoms is minuscule at best.
You’re forgetting currency control evasion. If a businessman from a country with tight controls wants to move money out of the country he would buy bitcoin and then sell it the other side of the border. This sort of activity is going on all the time, and it creates demand for crypto currencies.
> You’re forgetting currency control evasion. If a businessman from a country with tight controls wants to move money out of the country
Before you can move it out of the country, you have to get it out of the bank, and your bank will refuse to do that with currency control measures in effect.