Live data from Hacker News

American Equity

blog.samaltman.com

511–520 of 552 posts

Re: American Equity

#511
post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxing land value is even better: not only does it not punish any economic activity, so doesn't have any dead weight cost; it actively encourages better land use, and thus might even benefit the economy. Also land is hard to hide, and relatively easy to value. So it's really hard to evade the tax. If you are going to tax wealth, and want that to include assets like equity in private companies, you are going to have t…

As I've suggested here: http://www.pdfernhout.net/basic-income-from-a-millionaires-p... "For example, imagine a basic income for everyone was supported by a 6% tax on all wealth that is based on monopoly scarcity. So, this would be an annual tax on real estate equity, bank accounts, cash and gold hoards, copyrights and patents, and so on -- basically anything that requires the government to defend it as a monopoly ag…

Robin Hanson has some similar ideas. See eg http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/12/em-cities-by-combo-auc... and a few others.

But he starts from a different angle: he's interested in economic efficiency. So he wants a system that moves economic goods into the hands of people who value it most (and compensate the previous owner fairly at market prices).

He proposes a system where people declare the value of their various possessions with two incentives for accuracy:

- You have to sell to any comer at the declared price. Thus guarding against overvaluation. - You have to pay a small percentage of the declared annual price as an annual fee, thus guarding against undervaluation.

That concern about economically efficient allocation is mostly interesting for monopoly goods and rights, because anything else we can just produce more off.

In Georgism it's customary to name these after their most typical representative Land (sometimes with the capital L to emphasis the generalisation). It's not much of a stretch to include eg things like licences for magnetic spectrum.

I'd be wary about mixing things like insurance against theft in here. (It might be possible to give a unified system, but I am not sure it is. Look at http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Course_Pages/legal_sy... for some source of interesting ideas about legal systems.) My wariness comes mostly from the fact that insurance that pays the declared value encourages people to overdeclare. Better let the market sort that out. (However paying the taxes for a specific declared value for years on end is a pretty good argument to convincing any court or insurance arbiter that you really valued something at that price.)

In the system I sketched above, Hanson described some scenarios were some entrepreneurs might be on the lookout for undervalued properties, buy them, and then just try to resell them to the original owner (or someone else).

As a special case, that scheme is especially lucrative if you are looking to buy a eg a house in a specific area anyway and don't care too much about which one; then the risk of not being able to sell the property you just bought on is not a problem: you just keep it.

I'd be more wary of using such a system of wealth taxation for eg cash. If you have a working central bank with an inflation or nominal GDP target, an individual holding cash even under their mattress is essentially free for society: the central bank just prints more money to make up for the portion you are holding out of circulation. And once you bring it back into circulation, they just print less money for a while. So for society it's great if people are holding cash: they did something for the rest of society to get their hands on the cash, but didn't get anything in return (yet). Very nice of them.

(Even better would be a free banking system, where essentially the same nominal gdp stabilization happens automatically because of market forces. George Selgin has some good stuff on that, see eg https://www.alt-m.org/2017/09/14/did-free-banking-stabilize-... or https://mises.org/library/less-zero-case-falling-price-level... )

The 'you have to sell at the declared value' requirement is somewhat similar to your idea: if you don't declare eg your house, it means you implicitly declare it to be worth 0. Someone stealing something worth 0 from you, will get a slap on the wrist at most in any sane system---or they can even just force-buy it at that price from you!

The other thing to keep in mind is something called 'tax incidence'. It's the study of who actually has to bear the burden of a tax. That's often different from who has to fork over the money. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_incidence . The other thing is deadweight losses (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadweight_loss).

But yeah, I like the basic idea of using a monopoly rent tax to fund a basic income. https://medium.com/basic-income/why-land-value-tax-and-unive... has a similar idea, and some worked numbers. (The author has at least one article for the UK and one for the US.)

Re: American Equity

#512
post #494
post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What was the problem that we where trying to fix anyway? Risk of financial collapse. Banks are risky because they have a lot of leverage, people more directly loaning money may take a 20% hit after a housing collapse, but that's not such a big deal.

The banks that collapsed during the last crisis are not the kind of banks that take deposits and give out loans. They were the kind of non-banking businesses that you talk about. And one of the reasons for the crisis was “shadow banking”, because many home loans were not really given by banks (some were directly created by other institutions, some were first created by banks but then packaged and sold). The subprime…

Here is a short list of recent bank failures most of which are very much traditional banks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_failures_in_the_U...

Including the United States' largest savings and loan association, until its collapse in 2008: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_failures_in_the_U...

Re: American Equity

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Well, the real question to me is do we think of people who live in Wyoming as "Wyomingers" and those in CA as Californians? I think we talk about it that way all the time, both where I live (which is a lot closer to Wyoming than California) and in places which are closer to California that Wyoming. The common issues of the day are all ones of class division and I think that geographical division really plays into it…

This whole idea of "coastal elites" and "flyover states" is just a tool that those with real power (corporations and special interests) are using to divide Americans so that they are easier to control. If you were the NRA looking to make sure that "bump stocks" don't get banned after a gunman shoots hundreds of people in Vegas using them, where would you focus your resources? On the Senate, of course! Because the Hou…

>This whole idea of "coastal elites" and "flyover states" is just a tool that those with real power (corporations and special interests) are using to divide Americans so that they are easier to control.

No, it's a well defined cultural and political divide. Maybe the powerful exploit it but it exists independently of them.

>If you're saying that the electoral college and the Senate are a means of protecting those in the "flyover states",

I am.

>then I would just you how that's working out? Do you think "Wyomingers" are the ones who are going to benefit from repealing the estate tax? The House, Senate, and Executive branch are all controlled by Republicans who should, in theory, be advocating for "Wyomingers" and yet they seem to only be working on behalf of the interests of the wealthy, special interests, and corporations.

Sure because you picked a terrible example. But Wyomingers sure are glad there's a senate when gun control comes up. And they're glad there's a senate when Abortion comes up. And they're glad there's a senate when basically any political issue comes up which divides mostly along geographic boundaries.

You'll sit here and decry the influence corporations have on our country but at the same time want to ignore huge swaths of america.

Middle America exists, it votes and maybe instead of trying to reduce its political power you should try to convince the people in those states.

>If you were the NRA looking to make sure that "bump stocks" don't get banned after a gunman shoots hundreds of people in Vegas using them, where would you focus your resources? On the Senate, of course!

This is the most shit example I can imagine you using. (1) The NRA doesn't care if bump stocks get banned. (2) A bump stock ban is totally meaningless feel-good legislation. Go to youtube and search "rubberband bump fire." A bump stock is just a "cooler" way of doing the same thing you can do with any rubberband or even a shoestring. (3) A bump stock ban is the perfect example of city people with no understanding of an issue trying to legislate it. Maybe next time you should come ask us in flyover land. (;

Re: American Equity

#514
post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Basic income isn't like Negative Income Tax at all. UBI is identical to NIT. The names are different framings of the concept, but the policy is identical and widely recognized as such, which is why the experiments frequently referred to tests of UBI are also the ones characterized as tests of NIT. > NIT is just moving the progressive tax system into negative values “Progressive” refers to marginal rates, which rema…

I replied to most of this in a side-thread at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15795996 But I'd like to elaborate a bit here. UBI is not identical to NIT because the difference is marketing , not math . Most of the electorate's basis for evaluating a given policy is not to perform a mathematical comparison of two systems and checking whether they yield the same results. How something is done is as important in po…

> UBI is not identical to NIT because the difference is marketing, not math.

But it's not even there, as proponents of both have stated that they are equivalent, and alternate names for the same thing, and they are marketed with the same arguments, and are widely acknowledged by their proponents to be names of the same thing. That is, the marketing isn't different, it's the same, both in content and on that the marketing itself recognized the equivalence.

Re: American Equity

#515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Random question which struck me about this discussion. Let's take a company like Google and re-imagine it. From its public statements we know that the bulk of Google's employees cost Google money and cut into its profit. Nearly all of its profit comes from its search advertising business and everything else mostly loses money. If Google was structured as an "economy" than the 1200 or so people who were responsible fo…

I think the analogy breaks down a bit when you consider that, if the company didn't anticipate that the other businesses (the self driving cars business, for example) wouldn't eventually turn a profit, they would be shut down. You make it sound like search finances all these other endeavors which will lose money forever.

Any individual endeavor could lose money forever. They could be scooped by Waymo. Their super-popular RSS software could be cancelled. The future of communication could be WhatsApp, not Wave.

But they're able to invest in the future because they have the spare resources. Maybe one of these random side projects will become immensely popular. Maybe one of these crazy side projects will become the most popular email interface ever. And even if they don't, the people are still valuable.

I'm not saying that some people won't just coast, but the potential for innovation shouldn't be locked away because "we can't afford it" - we obviously can.

Re: American Equity

#516
post #420
post #11

He could start with his companies giving out a much larger share of equity to their employees. I always find it fascinating when VCs advocate for things like UBI or this American Equity plan while at the same time being a major contributor to income equality. They could do a lot right now bit instead they make some vague proposals while keeping their money.

Not sure if you read this essay, but Sam advocates for startups to be significantly more generous on employee equity: https://blog.samaltman.com/employee-equity (at least compared to other VCs, you may still disagree with his absolute numbers)

He could actually implement these ideas if he was serious.

Re: American Equity

#517
post #487

> I’d like feedback on the following idea. > I think that every adult US citizen should get an annual share of the US GDP. Sure thing, sama. I hope you saw it[1]: https://medium.com/@simon.sarris/after-universal-basic-incom... Without addressing these issues, UBI could look like a nightmare even if we're all on board. I think he's committing the usual assumptions: 1. That what people struggling and suffering in the U…

> Because dang messaged me about it being re-upped on HN so I assume somebody at YC There's no reason to assume that anyone at YC sees the posts we re-up. That's just routine moderation. The only reason they'd know about it is if they ran across it on Hacker News like anyone else.

I'm loosely conflating YC and HN, which may be a mistake.

How do you decide which stories are re-upped and which are not?

Re: American Equity

#518
post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I guess we didn't run out of money per jerf's scenario, then.

That's not even remotely a sensible argument, since we didn't have UBI then. You are either not arguing in anything remotely resembling good faith or are not tall enough for this ride. You may have the reply to this unopposed; I'm done here.

UBI is usually proposed as a replacement for welfare, so you’d have one or the other. The potential for running out of money one day did not prevent us from having welfare so it shouldn’t exclude the possibility of UBI.

The ad hominem shot is surprising, given the straightforwardness of my position. I don’t understand why you are cross. Ah well.

Re: American Equity

#519
post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and if I insisted on working exactly 40 hours I probably would not have gotten the raises or opportunities I got. But I am personally nowhere close to the amount of income we're talking about here, let alone wealth, and I've sort of maxed out my ability to be productive. Do we think that at the margin that a wealth tax would kick in - which is specifically not most people - the number of hours worked is relevan…

What kind of cutoff are we talking about?

In another thread, someone else suggested $10M and I suggested $100M. (This is wealth, i.e., total assets / net worth, not annual income.)

The 99th percentile ("top 1%") of wealth by household seems to have been be $8.4M in 2007, according to https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/measuring-the-..., the most recent calculation I could find from a quick Google before heading to work - I'd love to see these calculations done with the raw data at https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm . From the summary on that page, they surveyed some 116 million households in 2007.

Suppose you tax all holdings at the top 1% of wealth by 1%/year, which is significant but not enough to wipe you out - after 50 years that leaves you with 60% of your original savings, assuming you weren't investing it.

That yields as a minimum $97T in tax revenue per year ($8.4M * 1.16M * 1%), and almost certainly significantly more because there-s a short tail of people with much more than $8.4M net worth. But if you split even this much among the 5% of households with "very low food security", that's $16,800/year. That's a lot of food.

(An actual scheme would have some sort of progressive tax, also, not a discontinuity at a certain dollar value)

Re: American Equity

#520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is pure democracy a good thing in and of itself?

Because it's harder to corrupt a "pure" democracy. If you have a policy that is bad for the population at large, but good for your own interests, in a "pure" democracy then you will have to convince a majority of the voters to vote against their own interests.

It appears relatively easy to get a majority to vote against their best interest. Case in point: Trump getting elected. If all that's needed to win a vote is populism and ad money, then you can be damn sure that people will vote not just against unalienable rights of minorities but will also against sell out their best long-term interests to short-term ones or to "principles" that sound good because they've been constantly repeated on Fox News or CNN.

Even without demographics taken into account, a country that's not accountable to a base set of unchangeable rules is a scary thing.

Post reply on HN