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Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

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Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#511
post #460

I would be far more interested in how to build a successful business. Everyone asks Elon about his big ideas, but how do you turn those big ideas into reality, specifically? I have never seen anyone ask him those questions. I thoroughly enjoyed the interview with Jessica Livingston because that was the primary topic. A missed opportunity in my opinion. I hope the rest of the interviews are more about the nuts and bol…

>What worked for PayPal but not the other companies and why? Amusingly if you read chapter 1 of Founders at Work quite a big part of what worked at PayPal may have been firing Elon Musk. Max Levchin largely built PayPal tech wise using Unix and then it was merged with Musk's X.com and Musk became CEO and wanted to switch everything to Windows. >Levchin: The three of us are pretty good friends now. At the time, alread…

> Amusingly if you read chapter 1 of Founders at Work quite a big part of what worked at PayPal may have been firing Elon Musk. Max Levchin largely built PayPal tech wise using Unix and then it was merged with Musk's X.com and Musk became CEO and wanted to switch everything to Windows.

I encourage you to read "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future." Musk talked about PayPal and the Windows switch in detail in Appendix 2:

“As for the technology change, that’s not really well understood. On the face of it, it doesn’t sound like it makes much sense for us to be writing our front-end code in Microsoft C++ instead of Linux. But the reason is that the programming tools for Microsoft and a PC are actually extremely powerful. They’re developed for the gaming industry. I mean, this is going to sound like heresy in a sort of Silicon Valley context, but you can program faster, you can get functionality faster in the PC C++ world. All of the games for the Xbox are written in Microsoft C++. The same goes for games on the PC. They’re incredibly sophisticated, hard things to do, and these great tools have been developed thanks to the gaming industry. There were more smart programmers in the gaming industry than anywhere else. I’m not sure the general public understands this. It was also 2000, and there were not the huge software libraries for Linux that you would find today. Microsoft had huge support libraries. So you could get a DLL that could do anything, but you couldn’t get—you couldn’t get Linux libraries that could do anything.

“Two of the guys that left PayPal went off to Blizzard and helped created World of Warcraft. When you look at the complexity of something like that living on PCs and Microsoft C++, it’s pretty incredible. It blows away any website.

“In retrospect, I should have delayed the brand transition, and I should have spent a lot more time with Max getting him comfortable on the technology. I mean, it was a little difficult because like the Linux system Max had created was called Max Code. So Max has had quite a strong affinity for Max Code. This was a bunch of libraries that Max and his friends had done. But it just made it quite hard to develop new features. And if you look at PayPal today, I mean, part of the reason they haven’t developed any new features is because it’s quite difficult to maintain the old system.

“Ultimately, I didn’t disagree with the board’s decision in the PayPal case, in the sense that with the information that the board had I would have made maybe the same decision. I probably would have, whereas in the case of Zip2 I would not have. I thought they just simply made a terrible decision based on information they had. I don’t think the X.com board made a terrible decision based on the information they had. But it did make me want to be careful about who invested in my companies in the future.

“I’ve thought about trying to get PayPal back. I’ve just been too strung out with other things. Almost no one understands how PayPal actually worked or why it took off when other payment systems before and after it didn’t. Most of the people at PayPal don’t understand this. The reason it worked was because the cost of transactions in PayPal was lower than any other system. And the reason the cost of transactions was lower is because we were able to do an increasing percentage of our transactions as ACH, or automated clearinghouse, electronic transactions, and most importantly, internal transactions. Internal transactions were essentially fraud-free and cost us nothing. An ACH transaction costs, I don’t know, like twenty cents or something. But it was slow, so that was the bad thing. It’s dependent on the bank’s batch processing time. And then the credit card transaction was fast, but expensive in terms of the credit card processing fees and very prone to fraud. That’s the problem Square is having now.

“Square is doing the wrong version of PayPal. The critical thing is to achieve internal transactions. ...

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#512
I think it was interesting his comment about how he really isn't working like a CEO: "Yeah. I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, which is fine. Business is fine. But really it's like at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer. She manages legal, finance, sales, and general business activity. And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team, working on improving the Falcon 9 and our Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars Colonial architecture."

This seems very similar to Steve Jobs who said he became CEO so that nobody could tell him what he could or couldn't work on. But like Elon Musk he seemed most interested in creating things and not really running the business.

I think this is a clue to successful business. If you got leaders like that you retain focus on good products rather than getting caught up in optimizing financials without a strong focus on actually building quality stuff people want or need.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#513
post #278
post #2

Question/Answer I found interesting: Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful? Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

What about all the people working in marketing, software patent lawyers, drug dealers? You want them to quit their jobs? --- Let me make my point in a less obtuse way. Most people make decisions about their careers based on opportunity and maximising profit. No one becomes a footballer to make the world a better place. This would all be fine as long as the capitalist market rewarded choices that make the world a bett…

Really you chose your career only from a profit motive? What are you, a sales person?

I certainly did not chose my profession from a profit motive and neither did most of the people I know. We did what we did because that is what we like or enjoy. Of course practical issues of making a living wage factors in.

I make a high salary now, but that is rather by accident. I just happened to be good in STEM subjects and enjoy math and programming. I didn't pursue it because it was an optimal economic decision.

I can fully relate to Elon Musk. When I try to pick a programming job e.g. I factor in many things such as salary, colleagues, location etc, but actually how useful the product seems is a major factor for me. I am generally willing to sacrifice salary to do something which I feel helps humanity more. E.g. I'd day a pay cut to develop a medical application over a horse betting application.

Of course money isn't irrelevant. If there is just too little money in medical software then I'd suck it up and sell my soul to betting, big oil or whatever ;-)

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#514
post #225
post #161

What amazes me about Elon is the level of self control, discipline, perseverance, resilience, willpower etc. He's not the only one playing the game so effectively at that level but to me, he exemplifies rational behavior. I wish more entrepreneurs like Page or Bezos were in the public eye as much as Musk. I believe those traits are common to achieve your goals.

Plus he is a pretty mediocre public speaker...yet puts himself out there & makes an impact

I agree he isn't that good at delivery but he feels very authentic and that does it for me more than the total fakery I see at e.g. Apple now. I say this because I am a big Apple fan I liked Steve Jobs presentations, but it hurts my ears when everybody at Apple try to sound like Steve Jobs throwing out "Best ever", "Only Apple can do this", "This is the best X we ever built" etc.

Elon Musk never says rubbish like this which feels totally markety. When Elon Musk rants about something it feels more like a geek who is really excited about something, rather than slick market speak.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#515
post #2

Question/Answer I found interesting: Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful? Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

Wouldn't a better formula be the expected value of the outcome: utility delta * #people * probability of success?

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#516

It always saddens me when I see a slew of Debbie Downer comments from the HN crowd. "Yes, he ushered in the electric car revolution, but the production carbon footprint is still huge!" "Yes, he's building rockets, but he took a bunch of government money!" "Yes, he's paving the way to Mars, but what has he done for world hunger?" And it not just with Musk, but really with anyone who has been successful. I would have t…

There are rational, non-envy-based reasons to object to all the hero-worship. For example, all the things "he" did above were actually done by big teams of people working together, but Elon gets all the credit. He deserves credit, but not all of it. And let's not forget the millions of people who worked to generate wealth that could be transferred via, and taxed by, PayPal, accruing the fortune with which to start al…

Of course, but I don't see a problem with celebrating what Elon is doing. I think your comment would be more relevant for the libertarian argument that CEOs need to be paid bucketloads of money, or the idea that rich people deserve all their riches because they did it all by themselves. I don't really think Elon is a guy that thinks he built everything himself. I have more an issue with conservative politicians who will not acknowledge that great organizations and businesses are team efforts and that all member of society should be appreciated, not just those on the top.

Elon like many great leaders before him is accomplish great things because he recognizes talent and allow talented people to do what they are good at. Too many talented people are held down by their leaders.

Of course if Elon was placed in Somalia he would have accomplished nothing. The talents and infrastructure he needs to do great things would not have been there. It is American society which has given him the opportunities he has exploited.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#517
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus he is a pretty mediocre public speaker...yet puts himself out there & makes an impact

I agree he isn't that good at delivery but he feels very authentic and that does it for me more than the total fakery I see at e.g. Apple now. I say this because I am a big Apple fan I liked Steve Jobs presentations, but it hurts my ears when everybody at Apple try to sound like Steve Jobs throwing out "Best ever", "Only Apple can do this", "This is the best X we ever built" etc. Elon Musk never says rubbish like thi…

>Elon Musk never says rubbish like this which feels totally markety. When Elon Musk rants about something it feels more like a geek who is really excited about something..

Maybe, that is how you market to geeks..Know your target audience and all that...Looks like it is working!

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#518
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said, I like him! I just don't understand why we should think he has special knowledge of what the future holds.

He doesn't! He's a smart guy, for sure, he has some pretty interesting ideas - but as for the interview, it was done just because he's famous. He's stating his opinions. If you treat them as anything more, then it's not exactly his fault. I think people overestimate the value of interviews. It's just individuals talking, not a compressed textbook!

>he has some pretty interesting ideas...

Can you list a few? I think only Hyperloop was a truly new idea. And I don't think it is going anywhere. It now feels like something that he did to capture the attention of the geek world.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#519

Planet diversification and renewable energy are good priorities, and that not doing them narrows future options dramatically, but the other things on this list are pure sci-fi fandom. Cyborgs and whatnot will probably come around eventually bit I see no reason to hasten them. I'd like to fix our current problems before these things make them more intractable: - inequality - workaholism of upper classes skewing cultur…

Cyborgs are desirable because they solve the "control problem" of AGI. Essentially, if you create a superintelligent AI, how do you make sure it doesn't outwit you and all other humans in order to do terrible things? There aren't any plausible methods that I'm aware of to accomplish that goal. So you sidestep it by not making any AI that's more intelligent than humans. Unfortunately there also aren't good ways to mak…

So, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em :)

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#520
post #492
post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Tesla's goal is exactly that: to make electric cars affordable and create the necessary infrastructure for them. And he does that by starting with the market segment where it's easiest to get started: high margin sports cars and luxury cars, and working his way down from there. It'll be a while before his electric cars can really compete with cheap cars, but I'm sure he'll get there. He's making good progress.

I don't think he will. You can't work your way down from that, you have to design the product with the end market in mind. My bet is that electric cars simply are impossible to make at a $20k price point approaching anywhere near Tesla quality, in the same way you won't be able to make a decent electric bike for $300. Probably the same way Ferrari is, no point to make wide acceptance of that brand.

Why wouldn't he be able to work down from that? It seems to be working quite well. The Model 3 costs $35k, which, while by no means cheap, is a lot more affordable than the Roadster and the S.

There's a lot of R&D going into this, and it's just easier to bootstrap a car company out of nothing while building expensive, high-margin luxury cars than when building competitive mass market cars. The mass market will come, but before it gets to that, costs have to go down more, and infrastructure for electric cars has to become ubiquitous.

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