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Waymo in Portland

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Re: Waymo in Portland

#501

Post by xnx »

lelandbatey wrote: post #459
xnx wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a bargain by comparison! Chicago is about to spend $1 billion/mile to extend an above-ground train line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Line_Extension

The USA is riding on 100 years of the benefits of scale and economic investment. If the USA was investing $150B a year into building passenger rail, we would not be paying $1B/mile for "new" and "trailblazing" rail projects. If we had to build much of the highway infra we built 75 years ago, but do it now, we'd be paying similar $1B/mile prices for the highways.

The best thing about rail in the US is we'll have a lot of premium land for bike paths and AV lanes when the rail gets decommissioned.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#502

Post by lotsofpulp »

jrflowers wrote: post #272
blks wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Specifically for him being probably highly paid IT specialist that can afford daily commute on a taxi.

Which is perfectly fine! It’s just that one individual’s willingness to spend 10x-20x for a similar service doesn’t make that service a “solution” to a community-sized problem.

Would it be cheaper to build and operate a public transit network, or to redistribute wealth by taxing and giving $x cash reimbursements to people for using Waymo?

Re: Waymo in Portland

#503

Post by brookst »

xnx wrote: post #499
brookst wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Roads are subsidized; the true cost of building and maintaining roads comes from general funds, not just from vehicle registrations and gas taxes (which of course Waymo doesn’t pay, being righteously electric). So you pay Waymo, they pay a few hundred dollars a year per car in registration, and you benefit from billions of dollars a year in highway funds from both state and federal sources.

Good point about electric. Maybe a tax on tires would be more fair, but that would lead to some dangerous behavior. Waymo and I pay a lot in state and federal taxes. Shouldn't that work out that we're paying for a shared resource we use even if the proportional accounting is not exact?

I’m not sure Waymo pays much in taxes. Do they?

But in any event, cars and roads are massively subsidized, such that drivers get far more than they pay for. See for instance: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59667

Roads are paid for out of the general fund, meaning that even those (few) who don’t use them pay for them, which I’d call a subsidy (as opposed to self-supporting). That’s not necessarily a bad thing; the same is true for many programs that support low-income people, and I think that’s great. But it’s still fair to call it a subsidy.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#504

Post by Sankozi »

onethought wrote: post #385
xnx wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Train-advocates being against self-driving cars will be recognized as being equivalent to environmentalists being against nuclear power. Fortunately, I don't expect train-advocates as being nearly as successful. Once someone has tried Waymo, there's no going back to the old ways.

But you're ignoring the core point (in both your metaphor and in the argument at hand): - If everyone took a Waymo... Waymo sucks. Not true of trains. ($/MW of power is stupid with nuclear in the age of solar and batteries, with basically zero safety concern... i.e. you can deploy solar and batteries to houses... not so much for nuclear)

All take Waymo dedicated taxi - it sucks just like cars in heavy traffic.

All take Waymo shared taxi/minibus - it is better than current mass transit and almost as good as car during low traffic.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#505

Post by Zigurd »

mmooss wrote: post #468
Zigurd wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course they have downtime. They need to charge. Waymo partners with car rental companies for depot operations where they inspect for damage and clean the cars. Damaged cars need to get repaired. But, a Waymo car has a huge impact compared to gig drivers. Even ones that do it 12 hours a day. The Waymo fleet is maximally available for both rush-hour busy times plus closing time at bars and nightclubs. I don't know i…

> a Waymo car has a huge impact compared to gig drivers. Even ones that do it 12 hours a day. The Waymo fleet is maximally available for both rush-hour busy times plus closing time at bars and nightclubs. What makes you say that there is a difference, the difference is in Waymo's favor, or that it's so large? Rideshare drivers also know about rush hour and closing time, and rideshare companies adjust availability for…

Of course they operate in the same market, and the influences of that market on supply are the same. But the response of gig drivers and autonomous vehicles to these influences and incentives is obviously not the same. It can't be the same.

Gig drivers have range of needs and preferences. Waymo, same algorithm, same car, same user experience all the time. Forums like HN also tends to have a blind spot about consumer preferences of women. These and other reasons are why Waymo has an outsize impact on a market compared to fleet size.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#506

Post by bryanlarsen »

Schiendelman wrote: post #399
bryanlarsen wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The OP you're responding suggested using Waymo's to help fill the buses, not get rid of buses.

I suggested both. Milk runs through suburban neighborhoods likely make sense to get rid of entirely.

Which are almost always fairly empty so the critic's comments about bus capacity is irrelevant.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#507

Post by josefresco »

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #285
josefresco wrote: post #67

I wonder how long Google will continue to subsidize this at a substantial loss? Estimated $30–40 billion spent in the last decade that only really pays off if they dominate the market.

Waymo now generates more than $350M in annual recurring revenue, says https://ideas.darden.virginia.edu/waymo-fully-autonomous-fut... , and quotes $130-150k per car. So one year of revenue buys ~2500 cars at those prices, which is roughly the size of their fleet (~3000 according to Wikipedia). It seems plausible that newer cars will be cheaper as designs get optimized, economies of scale hit and what used to be reall…

I don't believe Google breaks it down but everyone assumes Waymo accounts for roughly 50% of $7.52B in "other bets" losses. And that's just 2025, losses in Q4 2025 are almost 2x Q4 2024. Cost factors are improving but they continue to shovel money into the R&D furnace.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#508

Post by malfist »

Schiendelman wrote: post #247
blks wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is an expensive taxi service, not a solution to public transport.

The cost of providing a bus exceeds the cost of operating a car in many cases, like lower population density neighborhoods. It may save the public money to centralize transit on major corridors and then subsidize trips on Waymo in some areas and at some times.

> cost of providing a bus exceeds the cost of operating a car in many cases

You can fit 40-50 people in your car?

Re: Waymo in Portland

#509

Post by joenot443 »

lelandbatey wrote: post #459
xnx wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a bargain by comparison! Chicago is about to spend $1 billion/mile to extend an above-ground train line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Line_Extension

The USA is riding on 100 years of the benefits of scale and economic investment. If the USA was investing $150B a year into building passenger rail, we would not be paying $1B/mile for "new" and "trailblazing" rail projects. If we had to build much of the highway infra we built 75 years ago, but do it now, we'd be paying similar $1B/mile prices for the highways.

Here in Canada we're investing $60-120b on a rail to connect Toronto to Montreal.

I hope your analysis is correct and subsequent passenger rails will be much cheaper!

Re: Waymo in Portland

#510

Post by insane_dreamer »

davidgay wrote: post #311
NoGravitas wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of this is just that the US rail system is amazingly shitty by global standards.

This is an extremely simplistic view. For instance, the US moves more of its freight (by percentage) than all western European countries except Switzerland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usag...

We're talking here about passenger rail, not freight rail. And when it comes to passenger rail, the US is terrible by the standards of other developed countries.
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