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GitHub Copilot is moving to usage-based billing

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Re: GitHub Copilot is moving to usage-based billing

#501
post #4

The era of subsidised inference is truly ending. The new model multipliers ( https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/reference/copilot-billing... ) seem like a huge leap, though. From 1x to 6x for new-ish GPT and Sonnet models. 27x for Opus... Seems like folks would be better off with OpenRouter instead.

Show HN timing matters more than people think. Monday-Thursday, 9-11am Pacific, is when the front page has the most engaged readers. Weekend posts get less competition but also less engagement.

Re: GitHub Copilot is moving to usage-based billing

#506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, silicon valley decides to use their playbook of expand at all costs by burning money to acquire the market (like a carcinoma), and it is the users fault ? Should we be blamed about uber destroying the taxi business, or airbnb the hotel one? Oh sorry, "disrupting". Uber was dirt cheap, now it is the same price as taxis, and the people working for it (the "partners", not employees) have no social benefits. Airbnb w…

Uber and Airbnb are not autonomous robots. If people wouldn't use their services, nothing would happen. They would just go bankrupt. So yeah, I'd say it's entirely people's fault. Because people just wanted to use their services without thinking what they're causing. Customers who think only about themselves and noone else.

I disagree completely. You cannot expect every consumer to be fully educated and aware of the consequences of their purchasing power.

This is the role of legislation, educated experts creating policies so that you don't have to do business analysis before making a purchase.

Would I pay 10x the price for tokens and be outcompeted by other companies, hoping that openAI will go out of business ? This is entirely unrealistic.

Re: GitHub Copilot is moving to usage-based billing

#507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, silicon valley decides to use their playbook of expand at all costs by burning money to acquire the market (like a carcinoma), and it is the users fault ? Should we be blamed about uber destroying the taxi business, or airbnb the hotel one? Oh sorry, "disrupting". Uber was dirt cheap, now it is the same price as taxis, and the people working for it (the "partners", not employees) have no social benefits. Airbnb w…

Uber and Airbnb are not autonomous robots. If people wouldn't use their services, nothing would happen. They would just go bankrupt. So yeah, I'd say it's entirely people's fault. Because people just wanted to use their services without thinking what they're causing. Customers who think only about themselves and noone else.

> Customers who think only about themselves and noone else.

When was this ever different? And do you expect it to ever change?

Re: GitHub Copilot is moving to usage-based billing

#508

I wonder if GitHub (Microsoft) is implicitly betting that enterprise demand is sticky enough to absorb these rates, especially given that Opus 4.6 “fast” was being listed at a 27x multiplier. Maybe they saw enough usage at that price point to conclude the demand is real. Or maybe the strategy is to keep the enterprise customers who can justify it while shedding heavier individual and power-user usage. The interesting…

yes. even in my province that's relatively behind on tech, at least +-20% were already strongly relying on Microsoft (Azure) and thought adopting Copilot was a no-brainer. That ofcourse comes with autonomous programming, because we're paying for it anyway!

These companies already lost the spark/innovation years ago. They're just using LLM's as a way to survive. Wonder how long that lasts.

Re: GitHub Copilot is moving to usage-based billing

#509
post #249
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess the new models will still be quantum leaps, but literally: "The smallest possible change in a system"

Yups... Mythos is the smallest possible leap. Not a standard model generation advance, not even a version point advance. Just the smallest possible quanta of a change. We are absolutely hitting a plateau any day now. Any day. Any time. Any second now. Yup. Right now! Surely!

I mean let's be realistic - all that we know about the "mythical" Mythos is the carefully curated and release stuff by the Anthropic's PR team. Is it really a huge leap they are making it to be? I doubt it. In fact I bet if it was indeed that powerful and dangerous, as they imply, they'd find a way to release it immediately, devastate OpenAI and DeepSeek and secure a leading position in the market. Why is it not happening? I suspect because Dario is again at it, peddling his bullshit.

Re: GitHub Copilot is moving to usage-based billing

#510
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, inference costs for entirely good enough models are likely to keep declining in the future. We're probably hitting diminishing returns on model size and training. The new generations aren't quantum leaps anymore, and newer generations of open source models like DeepSeek are likely to start getting good enough. There's going to be a limit to how much they can raise prices, because someone can always build out…

I guess the new models will still be quantum leaps, but literally: "The smallest possible change in a system"

They've been like that for a while actually, I think at least since the big hype around ChatGPT 4.5 (or was it 5?) and that underwhelming, lukewarm, oversanitised presentation by Altman and his team.
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