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Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

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Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#501
post #417

In related news, diesel is $7/gallon, and peets coffee is $25/lb, and computers (hardware and cloud) are up 25-50%. The official numbers claim 3% inflation. Does anyone actually believe that? We were seeing 30% YoY before Iran here in California. The discrepancy is so large, I’m wondering if there’s an official explanation or some reasonable explanation, or if they’re just not bothering anymore.

I dug up walmart ads from 8 and 16 years ago. In the first 8 years, a case of pepsi went up 5%. In the last 8 years, it went up 200%. Make of that what you will.

Drinking more water would be healthy for most americans.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does it take so long?

Aluminum smelters use the Hall-Heroult process, where alumina is dissolved in molten cryolite and reduced in massive “pots” which are large electrolytic cells. Each pot contains a carbon cathode lining that must be kept at around 950C during operation. If the pot cools down, the frozen electrolyte and solidified aluminum contract at different rates than the carbon and steel shell, cracking the lining. Once it’s crack…

Fascinating, and what about the discarded hardware? Is it recyclable in any way?

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#503
post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aluminum smelters use the Hall-Heroult process, where alumina is dissolved in molten cryolite and reduced in massive “pots” which are large electrolytic cells. Each pot contains a carbon cathode lining that must be kept at around 950C during operation. If the pot cools down, the frozen electrolyte and solidified aluminum contract at different rates than the carbon and steel shell, cracking the lining. Once it’s crack…

How much of this process is cleaning up from the previous run and how much is purely for starting up the process again? Does it make sense to clean up the system as soon as you can after shutdown, in preparation for restart, whenever that may be?

The system is just build for continuous usage and any shutdown does major damage.

To keep it running at reduced capacity will likely be less expensive unless the war goes on for a very long time.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#504
post #292

Step 1: Put the helium in a blimp Step 2: Fly around the straight and over to Taiwan Step 3: Pump it into the chip factory There you go, solved it.

How do you get the blimp back?

Shoot it down with a F22.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#505
post #289
post #271

It is not just oil and helium supply chains, it is nitrogen fertilizers also, and in a season when they are needed the most: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/nitrogen-ammonia-a...

Aluminum too, Qatar shutdown a smelting plant which take a year to restart

Also sulfur: https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-chokepoint-we-missed-sulfur-ho...

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$460M was for what was left after the large majority had already been sold. In the best case, "strategic reserves" are the government speculating on commodity prices. They use tax dollars to buy a commodity -- raising the price on everyone so they can hoard it -- and then more tax dollars to pay for a storage facility, and if they're lucky the price goes up by enough to pay for the storage and the time value of money…

> In the best case, "strategic reserves" are the government speculating on commodity prices. A horrendously misinformed take. Strategic reserves have broadly one of two primary purposes. First, providing the government with the ability to stabilize market prices in the short term when volatility strikes. Second, providing a supply of an essential resource to an essential industry in the event that external supplies a…

> First, providing the government with the ability to stabilize market prices in the short term when volatility strikes.

Which is the thing they don't really even do, because their existence is not a secret, but then knowing of their existence discourages anyone else from setting up a reserve because they expect the government to unload right when they'd be trying to recover the costs of operating it. Then the market has less slack in it and the government has to tap into the reserve more frequently and in larger amounts, causing the reserve to be much more easily exhausted than you would intuitively expect because the whole world is now expecting you to bail them out when the time comes.

Worse, it encourages companies to rely on its existence instead of making contingencies, and then if it does get exhausted or you get something that looks more like unexpectedly high demand than unexpectedly low supply, you now have an inadequate reserve and a market full of people operating under the impression they would never have to deal with that.

> Second, providing a supply of an essential resource to an essential industry in the event that external supplies are unexpectedly cut off temporarily.

This isn't a different thing from the first thing. There being less supply is what causes the price to go up. But encouraging the market to take all the slack out causes there to be less supply.

The basic problem is this: If the government keeps a moderate reserve, it's going to cause other people to not do that, and then it's going to run out and Cause Problems. If the government keeps an enormous reserve, they're going to cause the price to be higher even when nothing is wrong and burn through a disproportionate amount of tax money doing it.

> Supply shocks are bad.

The correct answer to this is to diversify supply and be ready with substitutes, not government hoarding.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#507
post #486

So turning our backs on globalisation was a mistake after all. Everyone needs everyone to work well together. So much winning. My PC was due for an upgrade this year (still using a video card from 2019)… so I really hope this keeps working for another … 5 ?! years

Umm, I think you have it reversed. A helium plant in Qatar shutting down causing problems to US chip consumers is precisely because of globalization.

It's hard to imagine chip supply chain could be commercially viable without globalization.

One could probably argue that giving up globalization means fewer and less capable products.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#508
post #417

In related news, diesel is $7/gallon, and peets coffee is $25/lb, and computers (hardware and cloud) are up 25-50%. The official numbers claim 3% inflation. Does anyone actually believe that? We were seeing 30% YoY before Iran here in California. The discrepancy is so large, I’m wondering if there’s an official explanation or some reasonable explanation, or if they’re just not bothering anymore.

CPI is kept artificially down by claiming that items that increase a lot in value are sudendly "higher quality" so that their price is adjusted down to equalize for "quality".

They will just take those items off the basket, put in different ones and claim that those are better quality so the actual price increase is in line with expectations.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#509
post #345

This situation would be laughable if the consequences weren't so dire. I have problems adequately stating just how incompetent and ill-thought out this entire misadventure was. I say this because everything that's happened has been completely foreseeable and foreseen , including the ability of Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz. This has been something many militaries around the world have planned scen…

Who are the good guys?

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just cheap UPSes, it's cheap surge protectors as well. They exist because the vendor can throw in a MOV costing a few cents and increase the price of the power strip by 50%, not because they're any good. MOVs are sacrificial components which have either degraded to uselessness by the time they're actually needed or, if they're still working, can explode or catch fire from the energy dissipated. Even if they…

No offense, but can you tell me how my 4.5 kW generator is gonna generate that kind of power surge?

One scenario: there's a short circuit somewhere, say rats chewing through insulation. This can cause a very high current through the short. A non-inverter 4500 watt 120 volt generator might have 0.2 ohms coil resistance, so the short circuit current can hit 170 volts / 0.2 ohm = 850 amps. When the shorted branch's circuit breaker trips, the inductance in the generating windings wants to keep that 850 amps flowing for at least a few microseconds, and it gets distributed across everything else that's still connected. Depending on what else is connected (hopefully including some surge protectors) the peak voltage can get into many kilovolts.

The circuit is something like this:

  voltage source -- parasitic inductor --+- circuit breaker -- short
                                         |
                                         +- circuit breaker -- your PC
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