Earlier quoted context omitted.
Jesus doesn't care I guess.
That’s because he uses ChatGPT, obviously.
Fair enough. :-)
How will OpenAI compete?
501–510 of 693 posts
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#502Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's incredible that google translate had this moat for a decade (maybe more) including live translation but people prefer to use chatgpt now
Google translate is nowhere close to as good as AI translate.
Google Translate uses Gemini now. You can switch between advanced (AI) and classic modes.
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#503Earlier quoted context omitted.
In my experience with Gemini, most of its capabilities stem from web searching instead of something it has already "learned." Even if you could obtain the model weights and run them locally, the quality of the output would likely drop significantly without that live data. To really have local LLMs become "good enough for 99% of use cases," we are essentially dependent on Google's blessing to provide APIs for our loca…
I agree 100%. Often when I use increasingly powerful local models (qwen3.5:32b I love you) I mix in web search using search APIs from Brave, Perplexity, and DuckDuckGo summaries. Of course this requires that I use local models via small Python or Lisp scripts I write. I pay for the Lumo+ private chat service and it has excellent integrated search, like Gemini or ChatGPT. EDIT: I have also experimented with creating a…
Interesting idea on the local search index! It occurs to me that running something that passively saves down content that I browse and things that AI turns up while it does its own searches, plus a little agent to curate/expand/enrich/update the index could be super handy. I imagine once it had docs on the stuff I use most frequently that even a small model would feel quite smart.
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#504Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ok so it worked correctly today, for you. How do we know it will continue to do so five years down the road when they are suffocating for cash? The more stuff we have there, the harder it becomes to verify their takeout will have everything.
How do you know anything five years down the road? You don't even know where you yourself will be. When proven wrong, hackers always say "Well in 5 years time or in 10 years time, things might have changed, so I was right and you were wrong". It limits your own reasoning capabilities, and your satisfaction of always being right yet again will start diminishing with time.
Well said. I think people don't know when to just back down. Arguing the latest reply becomes a reflex rather than a 2-way discussion.
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#505Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#506Earlier quoted context omitted.
Neither can ChatGPT or at least not accurately. I have asked it to search me stuff from amazon.de but I never get amazon links
It works great on bol.com and Amazon.nl for me.
You know, I just tried to search on Amazon.de and it worked without ChatGPT. Is it a thing with the .nl-tld that you have to use ChatGPT for something simple like that? ;-)
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#507Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apple has offered products with little value over competitors for a long time now, but they still get to command a large premium on their products because "the vibes are right". When engineers analyze things they look at the specs, stats, and metrics. When consumers analyze things they look at what others are doing, feel for vibes, roll into the convenience, and stick with the familiar.
> Apple has offered products with little value over competitors I'm genuinely surprised by this comment. For example, I thought there was universal sentiment that apple silicon / M-series computers are pretty unmatched.
The overwhelming volume of Apples sales comes from people who wouldn't notice if their device was running 2016 level hardware.
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#508Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…
Netscape had a 90% market share in 1995. If OpenAI is metaphorically netscape, what prevents its competitors from prying away customers every day? What prevents google/facebook/microsoft from using their position to bundle chat experiences? Especially if the tech is a commodity and OpenAI's models are about as good as everyone elses?
In 1995 no one used the web still. Sure, we all did, but it was pretty niche. I think you could argue that chatbots are niche as well, but the user base of OpenAI is way larger now than Netscape in 1995. Netscape had probably 25 million users at the end of 1995. ChatGPT has about 800 million.
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#509Earlier quoted context omitted.
5 years is a bit optimistic. I have no desire to use anything dumber than Claude - but I doubt I'll need something much smarter either - or with so much niche knowledge baked in. The harness will take care of much. Faster would be nicer though. That still requires a pretty large chip, and those will be selling at an insane premium for at least a few more years before a real consumer product can try their hand at it.
Coding, via something like Claude or Codex, will likely always be something best done by hosted cloud models simply because the bar there can always be higher. But it's already entirely possible to run local models for chat and research and basic document creation that can compete perfectly fine with the cloud models from 6 months to a year ago. The limitation at this point is just the cost of RAM. This week's releas…
Even for coding. I mean, there's what, maybe a few thousand common useful technologies, algorithms, and design patterns? A million uncommon ones? I think all that could fit in a local model at some point.
Especially if, for example, Amazon ever develops an AWS-specific model that only needs to know AWS tech and maybe even picks a single language to support, or maybe a different model for each language, etc. Maybe that could end up being tiny and super fast.
I mean, most of what we do is simple CRUD wrappers. Sometimes I think humans in the loop cause more problems than we solve, overindexing on clever abstractions that end up mismatching the next feature, painting ourselves into fragile designs they can't fix due to backward compatibility, using dozens of unnecessary AWS features just for the buzz, etc. Sometimes a single monolith with a few long functions with a million branches is really all you need.
Or, if there's ever a model architecture that allows some kind of plugin functionality (like LoRA but more composable; like Skills but better), that'd immediately take over. You get a generic coding skeleton LLM and add the plugins for whatever tech you have in your stack. I'm still holding out for that as the end game.
Re: How will OpenAI compete?
#510Earlier quoted context omitted.
So in summary OpenAI are basing their valuation of 285 billion on the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? Seems optimistic when there is very little intrinsic stickness due to learning the UI or network effects. Perhaps a little bit chat history - but not 285 billions worth. Also completely ignoring the fact that most devices things will start to come with the same features directly built in…
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When unstructured human language is the bulk of your interface, it takes effort to contrive any vendor lock-in that doesn't approach zero.
The same doesn't go for traditional, structured software ecosystems, which can afford to coast for a lot longer.