The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline • Hacker News Board

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#501

Post by steveBK123 » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:55 PM UTC

alephnerd wrote: post #425

Bratmon wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My take on it is: you have to make your country/society a place where people will want to have children and feel/know that their children's lives will be good ones. It's funny to me that of all the crazy crackpot theories on fertility Twitter, you picked the craziest and crackpotiest. I'm actually really eager to hear why you think Chad, Somalia, and DR Congo are the countries where people feel the most optimistic…

> I'm actually really eager to hear why you think Chad, Somalia, and DR Congo are the countries where people feel the most optimistic about the future, and what you think rich countries should be learning from them! Why not ask Israelis? Even ignoring Haredim and Arab Israelis (both whose fertility rate has fallen dramatically), secular Israelis tend to have 2 kids on average [0]. Israelis also work much longer hours…

It really is cultural. The economics don't help at all, but in the US kids are largely seen as some sort of annoyance, burden, interruption, etc.

I barely know my coworkers kids names half the time. I certainly don't see photos of them or see them popping into zoom backgrounds. Growing up my dads company had picnics and his coworkers had parties and I'd meet his coworkers & their kids.

And while theres obvious things children limit.. like 4am clubbing on a Tuesday... a lot of public spaces are less child-friendly than in the past.

Parenting has become increasingly a home-bound activity over time, with a reduced social life for both parents and children. Or the outside-home activities involving kids are specifically kids focussed and a time commitment, like spending all your weekend mornings at children's sports leagues.

There's very little overlap in 20-30 something singles & family public spaces anymore. It's like the entire world has self segregated.

I also wonder about the extra burden of some of the over the top car seat rules in US (up to 12 years old!?) also causing challenges for parents. Both parents probably need a bigger car, especially if you have 2-3 kids. If you have grandparents that help out, they need the same.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#502

Post by SoftTalker » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:56 PM UTC

JPKab wrote: post #358

Gagarin1917 wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Birth control made it so women can choose how many times they get pregnant. Pregnancy is not exactly a walk in the park, so it’s no surprise it’s decreasing as birth control increases. To override this, society needs to make having kids be “cool.” It’s that “simple,” but there’s no real way to coordinate that in society from the top down without being authoritarian. So it’s a problem that can only be solved by i…

I totally agree, and my argument with the original post was that the author made it sound so simple. Has any society successfully done this yet? Basically, the only prosperous first world groups I see with fertility rates above replacement rate are religious subcultures (like the Mormons, Evangelicals, and Modern Orthodox Jews in the US). I simply don't see any other examples of being able to pull this off.

Germany in the 1930s. Not that we'd want to emulate their methods.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#503

Post by mwillis » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:56 PM UTC

I truly believe psychology is at the root of this. People start families when the optimism they feel about the future outweighs the pessimism. Even if this evaluation is done subconsciously.

At some point, in first-world society - averaging across different societies and social support systems, and considering the numbers in aggregate - we flipped. Pessimism about the future outweighs optimism. Downstream of that flip, the prevailing trend changed. Here we are.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#504

Post by andrewla » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:58 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #389

andrewla wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

For anybody looking on, this sort of Big Lie behavior is extremely common in the US these days. All that crazy stuff Europeans are seeing with JD Vance and Trump's Greenland behvaior is what everyday Americans experience on a wide range of topics. Having somebody link to a source that directly refutes their own claims, while acting indignant, is something I've experienced multiple times in the past week! It's quite s…

For anybody looking on, THIS sort of Big Lie behavior is extremely common in the US these days.

Having a source that makes a false claim as a headline but refutes their own claims, while acting indignant, is extremely common in a media landscape that wants to signal their "in-group" status.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#505

Post by MyHonestOpinon » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:58 PM UTC

mmastrac wrote: post #37

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need young people to pay for old people retirement (economically speaking, someone has to be working when someone else is just eating).

I really hope that automation and robotics will _finally_ allow us to invert the pyramid.

I think the solution is in adjusting our ways of life. Simpler living, smaller houses and more density, being able to walk and bike, shared common areas, increase health span, being able to live independently for longer, simpler hobbies, not needing so much stuff, etc.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#506

Post by RobertoG » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:58 PM UTC

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

you have to make your country/society a place where people will want to have children and feel/know that their children's lives will be good ones. [..] That's a gigantic task, [..]"

Yeah, but is not that suppose to be like 'The Task'. Like, literally, beyond immediate survival, the thing all human groups work towards? I know, sometimes doesn't look like it.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#507

Post by steveBK123 » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC

daymanstep wrote: post #472

alephnerd wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm actually really eager to hear why you think Chad, Somalia, and DR Congo are the countries where people feel the most optimistic about the future, and what you think rich countries should be learning from them! Why not ask Israelis? Even ignoring Haredim and Arab Israelis (both whose fertility rate has fallen dramatically), secular Israelis tend to have 2 kids on average [0]. Israelis also work much longer hours…

Are you saying that Israelis are more likely to have kids mainly because Israeli society is more tolerant of kids? You seem to be supposing a model where most people naturally want kids, but are just discouraged from having kids because...other people might give them a stink eye if their kids run around in a mall. In my model, people choose to have kids because it's an important life goal for them, and this decision…

I think in atomic families in the US, more and more people are brought up without really interacting with children much once they are a teen and stop being a child themselves.

What used to be normal teen rights of passage like hanging out with your younger extended family, holding a baby, babysitting the neighbors kids, being a summer camp counselor, helping with youth sports, etc.. are less common.

Teens are busy cramming SATs, doing homework, and polishing up their resume for college.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#508

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

[deleted]

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#509

Post by charcircuit » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC

Arranging society in such a way that women would rather have a career than be a mother will have profound consequences. The value of motherhood needs to be properly valued in society's collective mind.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#510

Post by echelon » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC

WhompingWindows wrote: post #421

kraig911 wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just hard now. Before I had kids I had a network of friends and had a great social life. Now it's just me and my wife. If I want more friends I'll have to have more kids I guess? I have 4 now. One (my first) is severely autistic. Financially the cost? I pay about 6,000 a month in daycare. 2k a month in healthcare expenses. Then community wise. Every time I've gone to take them to the movies, or to a restaurant o…

You're not alone, Kraig911. It's very hard to be a parent in modern society. My wife and I's friends have basically vanished from our lives, they have zero initiative or interest in coming over to see the kids or help in any way. They say they do, but they rely on us to take the initiative and make social things happen. After dozens of rejections or silence from dozens of them, it's rejection fatigue with the friends…

It's not that being a parent is harder - it's actually easier (excluding the post-WWII American boom years which were a fluke).

It's that the floor of being single has risen to stratospheric highs.

Being single used to be: boring (no internet, tv, constant dopamine drip. Having kids was an escape from mundane boredom.)

Being single used to be: lonely (now we have dating and hookup apps, online games, tons of in-person events - cities are filled with concerts and music festivals, you name it, more Michelin Star restaurants than anyone could visit, etc. etc.)

Being a woman used to be: limited choice (now we fortunately have tons of options for women - careers, etc. They can enjoy the same freedoms, fun, and personal investment as men.)

Not to mention that parents have all kinds of new social stigmas.

Having children used to be: free labor, send them off to do whatever (now you'd be accused of child abuse)

Basically, the problem is single life is too good now. We have smartphones, internet, and the economy revolves around the single experience.

The minute you have kids, you lose access to the exciting single life that the modern society has built itself around and catered itself to.

Society glorifies single life, and the signalling is so strong you know you'll lose it if you have kids. It's not like you have time anyway with the doomscrolling and dopamine addiction.