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Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

reuters.com

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Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#501

Post by kyboren »

carefulfungi wrote: post #463
OrvalWintermute wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Euros also underfunded their defense obligations and received huge amounts of US investment in facilities, enabling them to upfund social programs, socialized healthcare and most egregiously 8 - 12 week vacations which are completely unheard of in the US.

If this were true, and if you want to give credit to Trump for EU defense spending increases, then (1) why is Trump asking for a dramatic increase in US military funding and (2) when will the US savings on defending the EU be spent on US workers?

1. Obviously the Trump admin is requesting an increased military budget because of looming global conflict. We don't want to get caught with our pants down.

Russia obviously bears the moral blame for starting this war, but Putin clearly was tempted by Western weakness. Had European states kept large and effective militaries and credibly threatened to employ them in Ukraine's defense, we probably wouldn't be where we are right now. So in some not insignificant measure, historical European underspending has contributed to the need right now for dramatically increased spending across the entire alliance.

2. I disagree with GP and agree with your cynicism there. US domestic policy failures are in no way caused by foreign intransigence of any kind. IIRC we spend more on health care per capita than (almost?) any other nation yet rank nowhere near the top in health outcomes. That's on us.

And I think it's important to correctly identify the root cause of our broken domestic policies, because I suspect fixing that issue will fix more governance failures than just healthcare.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#502

Post by nonethewiser »

testing22321 wrote: post #399
nonethewiser wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For reference, 25-30% of US treasuries are foreign owned. It's still a lot but I think people over-estimate how much of US debt is foreign owned.

Sure, but if the majority of that foreign owned debt is sold off, it’s very likely there would be a run and everyone would try to sell in a panic.

It would have a massive negative impact, and there are reason why these countries dont do this (their own interests), but that's all besides the point. The US hold most of it's debt, which is not something everyone realizes.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#503

Post by chimprich »

StephenHerlihyy wrote: post #442
g_delgado14 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A new civil war that drives the US to fragment into several independent regions over the course of the next ~five years would kind of be the best scenario from a global perspective. The US isn't going to passively give up its hold on the world order. You don't think this would trigger a world war? And if / when the US does topple (whether in 10 years or in 1000 years), at the moment it looks like the only viable ne…

The opposition to American hegemony shifted from Europe (ie the USSR) to Asia (ie China). To that end, NATO lacks the capacity to meaningfully impact a conflict in the Pacific. The EU simply does not have the means to project power in that way nor do they have the ability to meaningfully implement economic policies that would effectively reduce Chinese growth. Trump is an asshole, but the strategy hasn’t really chang…

> To that end, NATO lacks the capacity to meaningfully impact a conflict in the Pacific. The EU simply does not have the means to project power in that way

This has been repeated elsewhere in this story. What's your thinking here? I assume you mean the non-US members of NATO, but you seem to have forgotten two G7 members if you're equating NATO - US with the EU.

The remaining members include two nuclear-armed states, five or so aircraft carriers, submarines, several large air forces, navies, etc. What would make them unable to project force into the Pacific?

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#504

Post by alephnerd »

moogly wrote: post #387
alephnerd wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How does this statement make sense though? I don't see the A -> B. The US pretty clearly does not want to see a Russian loss either, and seems more fine with Ukraine losing. Despite Trump, the US (and rivals of China like South Korea and Japan) have continued to supply the Ukrainian armed forces and their allies like Poland and Romania. A protracted Russia-Ukraine War with the balance of power in favor of Russia me…

> Despite Trump, the US (and rivals of China like South Korea and Japan) have continued to supply the Ukrainian armed forces and their allies like Poland. Military supplies have not slowed, that's true, the major difference since Biden is that European nations are now paying for it, but diplomacy and sanctions-wise, interest is waning for every month, it seems. Trump is even derailing the Davos summit. That was suppo…

> Trump is even derailing the Davos summit. That was supposed to be primarily about Ukraine, but now it's about Greenland

The Intel Chiefs meeting about Ukraine is still happening [0]

> so I would've worded that "via Poland and Romania" and not made it seem like they are supplied for their own benefit.

Poland [1][2][3] and Romania [4] are also choosing to buy Korean weaponry instead of European.

> Europe trying to improve relations with China would be with cap in hand

It's difficult because the EU can't go cap in hand to China as long as

1. Anti-China leaders like Babis (CZ) remain in power,

2. Deals with Chinese rivals such as the FTA with India (Jan 27th), French modernization of the Vietnamese Armed Forces, the GCAP project with Japan, and Eastern European defense procurement from SK and Japan continue,

3. the EU remains committed to the "rules-based order" (ie. the existing status quo including de facto sovereignty for Taiwan),

4. EU member states continue to have American boots on the ground in the Baltics, Romania, Poland, Germany, and Turkiye

5. The EU does not sign a comprehensive FTA with China

China will always view the EU as not aligned with China. Both China and the US have adopted a "either you are with us or against us" foreign policy.

> What irks me the most is that I still hear people talk about kicking out the US from NATO, not understanding that without the US, there is no NATO.

It's a conundrum.

I think the only way an American NATO commitment will remain is if all NATO countries publicly commit to providing a security umbrella in East Asia.

Similarly, the EU will always be viewed as a rival of China's as long as 1-5 are not resolved in China's favor.

The EU can potentially build it's own space in a multi-polar world, but it will require making some very politically unpopular decisions around rearmament at the expense of social services; aligning with other regional powers such as Israel, India, UAE, KSA, Vietnam, Japan, SK, Brazil, Argentina, etc despite domestic political backlash; and having to back down to the US or China depending on the issue.

[0] - https://www.intelligenceonline.com/europe-russia/2026/01/19/...

[1] - https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2025/06/11/REUTAK...

[2] - https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2024/08/19/GY7PG4...

[3] - https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2022/12/08/6DXIBF...

[4] - https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/defense/20240710/kor...

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#505

Post by Phelinofist »

justin66 wrote: post #161
hightrix wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any criticisms to the parent comment? As an American, they seem pretty spot on to the current climate. I'd argue we've never been closer to civil war than we are today[0], primarily due to trumps regime invading cities around the country, kidnapping citizens utilizing a bounty program, and killing people in concentration camps. Ediot: [0] - Since the last civil war. I thought that was obvious, but it seem…

This comment: A new civil war that drives the US to fragment into several independent regions over the course of the next ~five years would kind of be the best scenario from a global perspective. is nutty.

It is, but I get the sentiment of these comments. If the US infighting they will leave us alone.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#506

Post by anigbrowl »

epolanski wrote: post #113
alphazard wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's symbolism. It's not. This is where the financial rubber meets the road, actions have consequences, and the rest of the world is looking at the US as increasingly unlikely to pay above inflation on its debts. The people managing the pension funds (if they are acting in good faith) really want to generate yield, and really want to preserve capital for the Danish people. They don't want to symbolically do those t…

There's no chance US will default on its debts, all it has to do is to print more money. Inflation may spirale, but it's going to be a US citizens problems (as well as US bond holders) in terms of inflation and budget cuts.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plays-down-consequenc...

Now, Trump is an opportunist and in the psat his talk of default has been a way to throw rhetorical stones at his political opponents and keep himself in the news while he was out of office. Back in office, he has sought to project some kind of commitment to fiscal responsibility and financial stability.

But let's be real here, he's making threats against a fellow NATO member on the daily and openly saying he wants to annex territory. If he gets it into his head that the Danes or the EU are being mean to him and hurting his fee-fees, he's fully capable of responding in irrational fashion and has a toxic personality cult that will back him up. Be honest, if I took this month's headlines and took a time machine a year into the past, would 2025 you have believed my warnings about what would be happening 1 year into the second Trump admin?

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#507

Post by ihsw »

raincole wrote: post #99
btbuildem wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not pure symbolism. The most effective way to reduce the global threat the US is appearing to pose more as of late, is to hit the dollar. The US economy is in a very precarious state, tensions along political ideology lines are high, and it would not take much more than a worsening of economic conditions plus a catalyst event to kick off armed unrest within the country. A new civil war that drives the US to frag…

> Danish pension fund AkademikerPension said on Tuesday it would sell off its holding of U.S. Treasuries, worth some $100 million, > AkademikerPension has in total 164 billion Danish crowns ($25.74 billion) So they are moving about 0.4% of their investment. Not pure symbolism, but $100 million is really nothing when we're talking about US treasuries. In the past decade, China has reduced their holding by about $600B.

[dead]

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#508

Post by adrian_b »

StephenHerlihyy wrote: post #483
BunsanSpace wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The truth is though that Europe is dead weight. Their economy is anemic, their still too fragmented militarily What an incredibly ignorant statement. Europe's economy in real terms is doing fine, their productivity is growing. The US's economy only looks good on paper, but outside of the AI bubble, companies aren't growing wages are stagnant with inflation. Europe is also on the verge of federalization. But you hav…

Over the past 15 years the European economy has grown from 16.25 to 18.50 trillion per World Bank. In 2008 the combined economic strength of the EU was 110% of the United State's. Today it's ~65%. By and large the European economy completely missed the mark on the Internet/Web3.0 technology revolution. You certainly have bright spots like ASML, but those are the exception and not the rule. It's reindustrialization ef…

The ratio in money between the revenues in Europe and those in USA is rather misleading.

With the same amount of money you can do much more in Europe. Even in the few domains where USA had a traditional advantage, like the prices of electronic devices, e.g. computers, things have changed a lot recently.

Prompted by another discussion thread on HN, I have compared yesterday some prices for computers and associated components in USA and in Europe. Now the prices in USA are 30% to 40% higher, in sharp contrast with how the price ratio was in the previous years, when prices were lower in USA.

The real economic strength of Europe vs. USA is much greater than the values of GDP expressed in USD, and including some meaningless indicators, would seem to imply.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#509

Post by chimprich »

dmitrygr wrote: post #469
jacquesm wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think of it as a bowshot. There are many more such 10 to 100 billion funds and they can move at the drop of a hat if they have to.

Can. Won't. There is no safer place to stash money in the world. Nobody buys treasuries for the fun of it. They do it since that is the safest place to stash money long term.

> They do it since that is the safest place to stash money long term.

Only historically. The calculus is rapidly changing. If the US can't even respect sovereign territory of friendly countries, it doesn't inspire trust that they would repay debt.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#510

Post by overfeed »

mym1990 wrote: post #145
epistasis wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say "nearly limitless" source of borrowing, the limit is the gain in global wealth. The US has been siphoning off a huge chunk of world wealth by printing dollars to serve as the currency for that wealth. All the people complaining about "US Debt" and $26T of "net investment" or whatever don't realize that this is/was the benefit of the US being stable, strong, and friendly. When the US is unstable, weak, an…

Its baffling that you think the collapse of the USD would have no negative ramifications on the rest of the world...

> Its baffling that you think the collapse of the USD would have no negative ramifications on the rest of the world.

Empires rise and fall, pax Americana was not the world's first hegemony. The end of the British Empire is within living memory - while they sowed seeds of instability in a handful of former colonies that still flare up today, the rest of the world is fine. Britain, on the other hand, has had to enter a "managed decline", and is a much smaller player in world politics than it was a century ago.

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