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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#501

Post by fartfeatures »

red75prime wrote: post #408
fencepost wrote: post #88

Doing a quick bit of searching based on the 4680 makes me think that there has been or will be a change from NMC811 to LFP chemistry in the 4680, including one article talking about changing to US and European-based in-house manufacturing and reducing dependence on China. I'm no fan of Tesla, but this looks like the collapse of the contract with the supplier for the battery chemistry they've moved away from, aka "no…

Yeah, it's typical of Elektrec to interpret anything Tesla-related in the worst light. I personally fact checked articles about "Autopilot disengages milliseconds before collision" and the one related to Benavides v. Tesla case. In the first case they jumped to conclusions. In the second case they "forgot" to mention any details that contradict their narrative: that there were two cases separated by years, that the p…

My understanding is Fred (Electrek) has been nothing but negative about Tesla since he got upset that they haven't released the roadster yet. Something to do with having enough referral points to get one. It has become his whole identity and it is sad to see.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#502

Post by londons_explore »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

There are 24 hours left in the year. Don't lose hope!

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#503

Post by nicoburns »

rasz wrote: post #257
gota wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The future of electrification is at risk because the market chose to bet on TSLA It really isn't. BYD is progressively becoming ubiquitous here (large South America city)

Thats why Potus is planning to liberate you guys.

He's going to have to liberate the entire world if he wants to stop BYD from being popular.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#504

Post by roryirvine »

mr_mitm wrote: post #178
1121redblackgo wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’

According to the article, a court would call this "corporate puffery", but to me it's nothing but lies and grifting.

To be "mere puff", the claim needs to be so obviously untrue that no reasonable bystander would suppose it to be meant literally.

But Musk often acts as if he does actually intend to be taken seriously. In the case of the current story, consider the marketing resources Tesla have poured into their previous "Battery Day" events and look at the press reaction; it's clear that at least some people believed that the claims stacked up.

A quick search of the hn archives for "4680" shows a similar picture. Yes, there were always some sceptical voices, but they were often shouted down as being from people motivated by an anti-Elon grudge. Nevertheless, the sentiment tended to be overwhelmingly positive with many posters actively reinforcing the hype.

Now, whether or not a self-selecting sample of hn posters can be seen as "reasonable bystanders" is certainly debatable - but it does seem that we're getting close to the point where Musk is going to have to start branding those who believe him as being exceptionally gullible in order to escape a charge of misleading advertising.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#505

Post by londons_explore »

zitterbewegung wrote: post #151
TheAlchemist wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really amazing. Anyone still remembers Dojo ? 2 years ago or so they stated that they start to mass produce Dojo and it was supposed to be a top 5 supercomputer in the world by the end of 2024... https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-...

The Dojo team left tesla to do their own ASIC. https://www.theverge.com/news/756706/tesla-dojo-team-shut-do...

I suspect the departure was mutual... The team didn't seem on track to deliver anything workable.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#506

Post by nicoburns »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #285
bgarbiak wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe doesn’t need new entrants. They got legacy automakers that are no worse at making EVs than Chinese and American startups. The problem is: they can’t make them cheap enough to compete with China in developing countries. I’m not sure if they even want to do that at this point, the margins there are so low. It’s easier to just rebadge a Chinese car as your own (Renault and GM already do that in SA).

> Europe doesn’t need new entrants. They got legacy automakers that are no worse at making EVs than Chinese and American startups Innovator's dilemma. It's not a coincidence that the two largest EV makers in the world are battery natives [1], and that they outproduce Nos. 3 (Geely), 4 (GM) and 5 (VW) combined. [1] https://www.fool.com/research/largest-ev-companies/

I wonder if that will change this year. A lot of the legacy car makers only launched their first "flagship" EV models in 2025.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#507

Post by donohoe »

DustinBrett wrote: post #394
mysecretaccount wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The poster to which I responded and the article are each speculating on the "why" for this contract. That said, we do not need to speculate about Cybertruck sales - Business Insider reported that Tesla sold only 5,400 of them in 2025Q3. We know from this that they do not need the same level of third-party 4680 capacity, and (call it speculative if you so desire) this is the most parsimonious explanation for the L&F w…

I agree about those facts that the companies themselves posted. But for journalism to occur my hope would be the author needs to find out what that means for Tesla instead of speculating. Perhaps if it was posted as an opinion piece.

There is plenty there “for journalism to occur” in terms of the write-down of the deal and Teslas current performance. It’s newsworthy in itself.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#508

Post by locknitpicker »

kortilla wrote: post #380
cosmic_cheese wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s underselling the Leaf quite a lot. The original 2011 model had 107 HP and 207 ft-lb of torque (later bumped to 147 and 236, respectively), which puts it handily above several gas models of gas cars that don’t get labeled as golf carts. It was a perfectly fine car, it just had a poor battery.

The issue is it had the range of a golf cart. So it basically ruled out 98% of the population that needs a car that can go on road trips. Tesla was the first to take range seriously.

> The issue is it had the range of a golf cart. So it basically ruled out 98% of the population that needs a car that can go on road trips.

You're trying to use weasel words to try to hide the fact that the Nissan Leaf, which was released in 2010 and elected world car of the year, was the world's most successful electric car and top-selling electric car until 2020.

That does not happen if 98% of anything doesn't like it.

Any claim involving "road trips" is a red herring because the Nissan Leaf was designed as a city car used in daily commutes, which means a daily driver for your 1h trips. This is by far the most popular use of a car in the world.

Why do you think it's design range was slightly over 300km? That roughly represents a ceiling of a round trip that takes 2 hours each direction.

For over a decade, the whole world has been buying Nissan Leafs more than any other electric car. How do you explain it?

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#509

Post by LightBug1 »

mr_mitm wrote: post #106
jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

That looks like it would make the basis of a nice Tesla class action law suit!

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#510

Post by eru »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #469
eru wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, feel free to short Tesla. (And I say that with conviction. https://hindenburgresearch.com/ are my heroes.)

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

You are right, but still I'd be much more concerned about snake oil from companies that no one can short.

The persistent short interest in Tesla shows at least that the critics are voicing their concerns in the market.

You and I might think that Tesla is overvalued, maybe. But if it's a bubble, at least it's not a fragile one that pops at the slightest pin prick like a few shorts.

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