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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#501

Post by conorcleary »

enaaem wrote: post #423
bruce511 wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're assuming US citizens stop buying Chinese goods, just because they got more expensive. That's unlikely to be true. They might buy less, but the numbers won't fall to zero. It also overlooks the detail that the component parts of items "made in the usa" also come from other places. Clothing made in the US, doesn't necessarily use fabric made in the US. In the short to medium term, the increased cash-flow require…

Besides, I don't see how a $20 shirt becoming a $30 shirt is going to make a difference for American manufacturing. It's simply a sales tax (maybe even the greatest in the world). And on top of that you have all inputs for American manufactures getting more expensive.

There's a great podcast about the downfall of American Apparel...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#502

Post by valar_m »

typeofhuman wrote: post #473
BartjeD wrote: post #444

[flagged]

[flagged]

That seems extremely unlikely given the significant global economic impact of tariffs, and the comparatively microscopic effect of transgender athletic participation in the United States.

For example, when Kentucky passed their trans sports ban in 2022, there was a grand total of one (1) transgender high school athlete in the state[0].

I mean, it's almost laughable to suggest that any of those things are even near comparable to the potential long-term impact of historically unprecedented tariffs being thoughtlessly tossed around on a whim.

[0] https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trans-athlete-bans-fischer-we...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#503

Post by conorcleary »

sirnonw wrote: post #12

Funny how there is a post-it with a password glued to the screen of the computer in the lede image, now in plain sight for thousands of readers.

Sorta how those Fox Raw livestreams on YouTube Live consistently show the inner workings of room-to-room shuffles and background whispers INSIDE the White House for the entire online world to dissect; it's definitely a security flaw but maybe not considered so by either Fox or the admin.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#504

Post by abrichr »

tmountain wrote: post #484
typeofhuman wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What children are being “gang raped”? Your comment reads like extremist rhetoric.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotherham_child_sexual_exploit...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#505

Post by dgfitz »

burnerthrow008 wrote: post #330
trebligdivad wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there's that much surprise at the tariffs on China; it's the tariffs on the rest of the world, especially friendly countries like Canada that are the big surprises. Also, who believes politicians campaign pledges?

> Also, who believes politicians campaign pledges? Only all the people who voted for them and all the people who voted against them?

Maybe if Harris had made a few she would have won…

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#507

Post by jmyeet »

stinkbeetle wrote: post #380
jmyeet wrote: post #279

If you listen to any oil and gas experts and ask them which president was the best for the oil and gas industry, do you know who they'll say? Trump? Absolutely not. Bush? No. It's Obama. Why? Because policy was stable during Obama. Whatever the policy is, if it's predictable, businesses can work around that. This was a real problem during the Biden term when there was constant policy shifts. We're seeing that now wit…

> If you listen to any oil and gas experts and ask them which president was the best for the oil and gas industry, do you know who they'll say? Trump? Absolutely not. Bush? No. It's Obama. Hmm, it's not that I couldn't believe it was Obama, but this is like a 2nd-hand appeal to authority. I would be interested in a bit more data to see why this is. > Why? Because policy was stable during Obama. Now of course we can s…

Here's a chart of US daily crude oil production [1] and you see it takes off around 2010 or so. Now this is when fracking started to enter production and we started drilling in the Permian Basin but all this happened under Obama.

Now the 2015 oil crash is something I could talk a lot about. I'll try not to turn this into a wall of text.

In Obama's last term he faced a hostile Congress and wanted to pass some wind and solar rebates [2]. The deal he made with the Republican controlled Congress was to lift the ban on exporting crude oil in exchange for the renewable subsidies. This happened in 2015.

So why were crude oil exports banned? This happened about 40 years earlier during the OPEC oil crisis. As an aside, net crude oil exports stand at about ~3M barrels per day. Pretty much all production increases since have been for the export market. US domestic oil consumption has remained relatively stable, despite population increases.

In 2015, OPEC in general and Saudi Arabia in particular crashed the oil market by ramping up production. You can see this here [3]. Saudi Arabia in particular increased production by ~1M bpd in a short period of time. A lot of people think this was to crush the fracking industry, which was heavily in debt. I personally don't buy this explanation because as soon as the price recovers, someone else will buy their assets out of bankruptcy and you're back when you started.

I think it was punishment for lifting the crude oil export ban.

A whole bunch of oil producers and services companies did file for bankruptcy [4] and this whole incident set the stage for what later happened in 2017-2018 and 2020 where Trump basically screwed the energy sector multiple times.

[1]: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...

[2]: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-35136831

[3]: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/35226/opec-persian-gulf-regi...

[4]: https://graphics.wsj.com/oil-bankruptcies-tracker/?gaa_at=ea...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#508

Post by the_gastropod »

yubblegum wrote: post #452
lazarus01 wrote: post #69

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

New York is teeming with what appear to be newly arrived "immigrants" who do no speak a word of English (and frankly are rather aggressive about their refusal to do so) yet are employed in various crafts. We had fairly substantial renovation recently in our building. Every single worker was clearly a recent arrival. How do we know how many jobs were actually created if so many of them are not "officially recorded"? (…

The U.S. has no official language, and no one who moves here is required to learn English. Especially in NYC, where so many neighborhoods predominantly speak a language that is not English (Brighton Beach, Sunset Park, Flushing, Chinatown, etc.)

Assuming someone speaking another language is both a “recent arrival” and working illegally is… something. Apparently it’s not xenophobic, but it’s not a good look.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#509

Post by beowulfey »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #419
hunglee2 wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

rental prices are driven by P/E redirecting funds to the purchase of housing stock, which they then use to jack up the rent. Fuedalism is returning by stealth.

If there’s demand for 5 million units and supply of 6 million prices will go down as 1 million units will be empty If there’s demand for 5 million units and supply of 4 million, prices will go up and 1 million will move out of the city

that is also assuming the demand is atomic when that isn't necessarily the case. A lot of that pooled demand can come from singular sources. in other words, not all demand is created equal

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#510

Post by r2_pilot »

mattmaroon wrote: post #437
jibal wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It didn't take informed people by surprise. We still see people denying that Trump had anything to do with Project 2025, whereas honest informed people knew that he very much did.

Nobody informed saw massive tariffs on India, Brazil, etc. If you were right the stock market wouldn’t have tanked because the smart money would have priced it in.

Maybe the smart money shorted on the tank. After all, if you know there's going to be a downturn in a known time period that's a smart move. I believe it's worth analyzing who sold what and when, if not for insider trading, then at least for historical knowledge.
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