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Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

newyorker.com

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Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#501

Post by dalyons »

goda90 wrote: post #367
amarait wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What replaces fossil fuels is some kind of breakthrough in batteries. At the moment its getting better every year were currently at less than $100 per KWh which is crazy but needs to be improved for allowing more off the grid energy consumption

Better batteries are the road to replacing fossil fuels for transportation, but I feel like abundant nuclear energy is what we need to give a jump start to green steel, hydrogen, ammonia, etc, and electrifying bulk heating industrial processes.

you may feel that, but its not going to happen. nukes are too expensive, and thus the energy they produce is too expensive.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#502

Post by dalyons »

bena wrote: post #359
amarait wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What replaces fossil fuels is some kind of breakthrough in batteries. At the moment its getting better every year were currently at less than $100 per KWh which is crazy but needs to be improved for allowing more off the grid energy consumption

I think the overall point is that we will never get there. Renewables will never be cheap enough to fully replace fossil fuels, batteries will never be good enough. No matter what, as long as the cost of extracting and burning fossil fuels is less than the result of what gets produced by the consumption, someone will be doing it. It’s why crypto will never solve the energy issue. Why AI/GPT/LLM won’t either. Especial…

you're just wrong. they already are cheap enough, its already happening. PV+battery is now cheaper than new gas & coal. Very soon to come, existing gas.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#503

Post by dalyons »

fastball wrote: post #366
pydry wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can either pray and wait for a technological breakthrough that makes storage tech way cheaper than gas or we can just use taxes and subsidies to make it happen now. It's not so hard. Lavish subsidies were used to make nuclear power semi-sort-of-competitive even though it's way more expensive. The same thing could have been done with solar and wind but apparently we thought the best course of action was just to wai…

Or we can go full nuclear.

why? much more expensive, much slower. This reflexive "nukes are the only way" meme amongst technical folk really has gotta die.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#504

Post by dalyons »

jes5199 wrote: post #468
papaver-somnamb wrote: post #221

Tony Seba around 10 years ago predicted (among many other things) that ~2024 the cost of generating a unit of electricity onsite with PV will cost less than merely delivering the same unit of electricity over transmission infrastructure, not even considering the cost of generating that unit. Nowadays he is diving into what he terms the phase change disruptions where he explores and thinks out the ramifications of the…

I've been following Seba since around 2020, and it's wild how: 1) he continues to be correct 2) people are still very slow to believe him his predictions have gotten a LOT more dramatic lately, I can't wait to see if he's still nailing it

where do you follow him? i just poked around in X & youtube but all his stuff there seems ~a year old.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#505

Post by matwood »

zitsarethecure wrote: post #444
matwood wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have an LG. They look to cost a premium in the US above heated air one. They also seem to be gentler on clothes since they pump in warm dry air vs. super heated air.

Out of curiosity, is it a "smart" appliance that requires an app to function?

I think there’s an app to do app things but I’ve never used it.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#506

Post by Retric »

kragen wrote: post #494
Retric wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I should have clarified burning, as in “Why does burning magnesium explode when sprinkled with water?” https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/33167/why-does-b...

Yes, safety is a significant disadvantage of the use of magnesium as portable stored energy, but if your ship's payload is already on fire, in most cases the shipment will not be very successful anyway, and loss of the ship is a serious possibility. If a hypothetical ship full of magnesium sinks without catching the magnesium on fire first, the magnesium will probably not catch fire from exposure to water. Perhaps if…

I agree, the point is you’re not risking something like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_Explosion “At least 1,782 people, largely in Halifax and Dartmouth, were killed by the blast, debris, fires, or collapsed buildings, and an estimated 9,000 others were injured.”

“Nearly all structures within an 800-metre (half-mile) radius, including the community of Richmond, were obliterated.[3] A pressure wave snapped trees, bent iron rails, demolished buildings, grounded vessels (including Imo, which was washed ashore by the ensuing tsunami), and scattered fragments of Mont-Blanc for kilometres. Across the harbour, in Dartmouth, there was also widespread damage.[4] A tsunami created by the blast wiped out a community of Mi'kmaq who had lived in the Tufts Cove area for generations.”

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#507

Post by triceratops »

abakker wrote: post #465
marze wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transmission lines are a interesting idea, but expensive. Once solar is cheap (like now, as it already is), you can put in 3x what is needed on a sunny day, and power everything on cloudy days. Solar runs on cloudy days. Night obviously requires a different solution. Start by installing solar over all parking lots. To think that you won't be able to run a 100% solar/wind grid is a bet against human ingenuity. If gene…

Solar over parking lots is so good. it creates power, shade, and reduces reflected heat.

Especially at workplaces or shopping malls, where most people park during the day, you can also install lots of EV chargers and use produced power onsite.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#508

Post by cogman10 »

pfdietz wrote: post #472
idiotsecant wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is literally the problem. Transmission is desperately needed, much more than generation right now. The issue is that it's hard to explain to people why this is, and even when they understand they react like you do. RENEWABLES NEED TRANSMISSION!!! We need to be building unprecedented Manhattan project levels of transmission, yesterday! But instead we will put some solar panels on a car park and feel like we did o…

With sufficiently cheap storage, no transmission is needed. There's a tradeoff, and batteries are rapidly improving.

The only real downside to batteries is the cost. The upsides are vast. Beyond adding feasibility to solar and wind, batteries stabilize the grid. The ability to instantly absorb and output power in response to demand or a lack of demand is incredibly valuable.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#509

Post by e_y_ »

pfdietz wrote: post #470
dgfitz wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as we all realize you can’t 3D print precision-guided missiles without, well, the guidance bit.

The guidance bit should be quite cheap now though, compared to decades ago. Some combination of MEMS backed up with GPS.

Also depending on how many corners you're willing to cut. Half the cost but a 1% chance that it turns around and targets a friendly? Some countries would take that trade.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#510

Post by triceratops »

conductr wrote: post #360
pydry wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can either pray and wait for a technological breakthrough that makes storage tech way cheaper than gas or we can just use taxes and subsidies to make it happen now. It's not so hard. Lavish subsidies were used to make nuclear power semi-sort-of-competitive even though it's way more expensive. The same thing could have been done with solar and wind but apparently we thought the best course of action was just to wai…

“We” are only in control of “us”. The rest of the world will keep burning fossil fuel

> The rest of the world will keep burning fossil fuel

As the article spends so many paragraphs to explain to us, the rest of the world is increasingly not burning fossil fuel for their new energy needs. Most of the fuel it burns is for the energy it already uses. And solar is starting to take a bite out of that too.

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