US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU • Hacker News Board

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#501

Post by layer8 » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 12:57 PM UTC

hayst4ck wrote: post #297

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

One thing I don’t understand here, genuine question: If, hypothetically, US manufacturing was to become so competitive that the trade deficit would go away, would that have the same disastrous effects for the US dollar as a trade/reserve currency? Or how would that work?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#502

Post by UncleMeat » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 12:59 PM UTC

Freedom2 wrote: post #46

As someone interested in "curious discussion", what are some of the positives we can take away from this? Is this a new standard for economic policy?

It is possible for things to simply be foolish. Insisting on balance is not the same thing as curious discussion.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#503

Post by jsemrau » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:00 PM UTC

iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

>Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions.

And you never wondered why that is?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#504

Post by yyyk » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:02 PM UTC

The admin's think is that any negative trade balance is 'exploiting' the US. Logically, the opposite would mean US is exploiting others. So the only 'proper' balance is zero, which requires managed trade. An obvious impossibility in this age. There are ways to rebalance, they require time and patience and thought (the latter seems most lacking).

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#505

Post by _heimdall » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:02 PM UTC

roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

> There are no out of work olive farmers in the US.

Is that because we can't grow olives here, or because we don't have federal subsidies propping up a domestic olive industry that can compete with corn and soy?

I ready don't know the details well enough there, but it feels like this could just be selection bias at play.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#506

Post by dostick » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:03 PM UTC

This historical period will be remembered by being a cause for legislation to introduce strict testing for mental illness in government positions. Ask any psychologist and it’s clear what it is, but they won’t say it publicly because of Goldwater “rule”. fact is they have the most dangerous and destructive mental illness known, and they captured the power exactly because of their disorderly mindset. Yet for months and years everyone is observing and discussing what people with a serious mental illness are doing when they are given highest post in power and unlimited money.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#507

Post by belter » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:06 PM UTC

hayst4ck wrote: post #297

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

> The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency.

There you go... "Deutsche Bank says risk of a dollar confidence crisis" - https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/deutsche-bank-say...

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#508

Post by IMTDb » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:08 PM UTC

I am not a specialist; but isn't that the most "green" policy ever ? I mean:

- Tariffs will increase the price of virtually everything -> By law of supply and demand; global trade and production will decrease, leading to less CO2 production

- This effect will be stronger for stuff coming from far away (little for Canda / Mexico; more for EU; huge for China). So companies will have a tendency to rely on local producer (even at a higher price). This again will lower transoceanic shipping. Other countries will probably retaliate so this effect will go both for inbound and outbound shipping. Again; less CO2 production

- More money for the government. There more stuff you buy, the more tariffs you pay, so rich pay more than poors. Which again is what green parties are looking for.

I might be very wrong about this; I am not a Trump supporter in any way - and to be honest I ma not a fan of green parties either - but my initial reaction is that if we look at the conclusion of the policies; the results are looking to align quite well. Of course the surrounding storytelling is extremely different; which puzzles me a bit.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#509

Post by nilkn » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:09 PM UTC

hayst4ck wrote: post #297

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

This comment is good, yet it also reflects a lot of what I dislike about political discourse online.

You've identified a potential severe negative consequence of a change or new policy, but you write as if this is a guaranteed logical corollary and there is no scenario where this consequence does not materialize. This creates an alarmist rather than genuine and analytical tone.

Describing tariffs as a "decapitation strike" feels hyperbolic and even perhaps conspiratorial. Saying this guarantees Chinese hegemony is exaggerated and ignores all the other equally (if not more) significant factors influencing both American and Chinese trajectories. Applying Dalio's broad thesis to tariffs specifically is a stretch -- tariffs may exacerbate tensions Dalio describes, but they aren't necessarily the coup de grace to hegemony.

Basically, you're highlighting real risks and issues, but packaging them in language that overstates their likelihood and doesn't take into account any other factors at play simultaneously. If your goal is to paint a doomsday picture of the future, this works well. If your goal is to understand the impact of tariffs on the world, there's too much emotion and speculation and not enough hard analytical work here.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#510

Post by netbioserror » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 1:09 PM UTC

hayst4ck wrote: post #297

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

The entirety of this scheme, in its soft and hard power forms, was financed by the parasitic impoverishment of the US populace. Everything the commenters on this site complain about: Runaway inflation, unaffordable housing, extreme financialization, excessive military budget, enrichment of the top, unaffordable healthcare, unjustifiable wars, all of it has partial or total roots in the money printing, artificially low interest rates, colossal trade deficits, and military adventurism that underpin the global US dollar reserve scheme.

I think it apt to boil it down to a binary choice: Either we give up our global empire and allow the multipolar paradigm to emerge for the chance at domestic prosperity, or we grip the iron to the bitter end and force the entire country to become the dystopic open-air homeless cities of the west coast.