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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#501

Nvidia valuation = $3000B Nvidia profits during AI madness last year = $65B (last 4 quarters) Nvidia profits during normal year = $5B This stock could drop 90% from here, and still be expensive. The numbers are absolutely crazy and make no sense at all. Stargate project is aiming to invest $500B over 4 years. Those $500B are a pipe dream, but let's suppose for a second that all of that $500B will be Nvidia profits an…

Are you suggesting "AI madness" is a one time event that will not continue? AI is dramatically improving productivity and not just for developers. The "madness" will continue until every job is fully automated. That requires a lot of chips.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#502
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huggingface is currently replicating it. Replications of small models indicate that they don't lie any significant amount. The architecture is cheap to train. Berkeley Researchers Replicate DeepSeek R1's Core Tech for Just $30: A Small Model RL Revolution https://xyzlabs.substack.com/p/berkeley-researchers-replicat...

Whoah, that's incredible! I remember a year ago I was hoping that in a decade from now it would be great to run GPT4-class models on my own hardware. The reality seems to be far more exciting.

I first sneered at the idea of LLM generated LLM training sets, but is this what might be driving the big efficiency leap?

Asking as someone who honestly only superficially followed the developments since the end of 2023 or so

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#503
post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

Not quite, I believe this sell off was caused by DeepSeek showing with their new model that the hardware demands of AI are not necessarily as high as everyone has assumed (as required by competing models). I've tried their 7b model, running locally on a 6gb laptop GPU. Its not fast, but the results I've had have rivaled GPT4. Its impressive.

If that's the case, then I have high hopes that the increase in efficiency will result in more demand, not less.

If only I could figure out how to buy NV stock quickly before it rebounds

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#505

So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

US thought they were unparalleled and years ahead due to $$$ injection and HW,

but got caught by 200 people Chinese team that preferred clever approach instead of "let's put as much compute as we can on it"

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#506
What you find with any market news is that the optimism and pessimism are always overblown. Fear and greed. It happens all the time.

Look at Linux. For those old enough to remember, there was a time where many (including Microsoft) were worried it would destroy the company (eg [1]). There were complaints about the market destruction caused by Linux. What actually happened? Microsoft is bigger than ever even though Linux is on billions of devices worldwide.

IF DeepSeek's claims are real and this stands up, all that's happened is at worst the profit opportunity has simply move *as it was always going to do). This might be bad for OpenAI and Sam Altman but Big Tech will (IMHO) be fine.

Remember that training LLMs for chatbots, which is something people focus on, is just one narrow slice of the potential AI market. Recommendation engines, industrial/commercial applications, medicine, etc.

If there has been a aoftware breakthrough and training LLMs now costs a fraction of what it did last year, there's now an order of magnitude more potential appllications that have become economical.

Consider this: if we can do today with a model 1/10th the size of what we needed last week, what applications will there be for a model 10x DeepSeek-R1's size?

I'm also reminded of the invention of the cotton gin. This automated what used to be a highly manual process. At the time, there was concern this would diminish the need for slaves on cotton plantations. Instead the need exploded because cotton became so much cheaper [2].

Lastly, Stargate is largely meaningless. Companies spend a fortune on data centers. GPUs are just a fraction of that. A genuine software improvement just means you can do more with less.

My point is: don't panic. Unless you're an OpenAI investor, maybe.

[1]: https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-linux-is-a-threat-it...

[2]: https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/cotton-gin-patent

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#507
post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of it will go towards energy. These companies are building literal power plants to power their data centers.

>These companies are building literal power plants to power their data centers. Have any companies publicly announced doing that, let alone actually started the process of building?

One example of restarting a previously shuttered nuclear power plant to power a data center.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/09/26/1104516/three-mi...

Although the fine print is that it will be dumping power into the grid to be pulled out by various DCs vs powering them directly

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#508
post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

Not quite, I believe this sell off was caused by DeepSeek showing with their new model that the hardware demands of AI are not necessarily as high as everyone has assumed (as required by competing models). I've tried their 7b model, running locally on a 6gb laptop GPU. Its not fast, but the results I've had have rivaled GPT4. Its impressive.

Not quite, I believe this sell off was caused by Shockley showing with their "transistor" that the electricity demands of computers are not necessarily as high as everyone has assumed (as required by vacuum tubes).

Electricity demands will plummet when transistors take the place of vacuum tubes.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#509

The vast majority of NVDA's value is based on the assumption they are the only game in town that can do AI. I'm still waiting for a competing tech to disrupt them further: * Intel, AMD, etc. could start making competitive GPUs that push the price down * A new ASIC chip specifically designed for LLMs * A new training or LLM runtime algorithm that uses the CPU * Quantum chip that can train or run a LLM If Nvidia lost i…

The thing with Nvidia is that it doesn't have a large "sticky" customer base that is guaranteed to spend money year after year on new products. If you look at other large tech companies with similar valuations (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta), none of them are in danger of their core business disappearing overnight. In Nvidia's case, if large tech companies decide they don't need to continue loading up on AI chips and building larger data centers then they are back to where they were in ~2020 ($100-150B market cap from selling GPUs to gamers and professionals working on graphics-intensive apps).

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#510
post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

Not quite, I believe this sell off was caused by DeepSeek showing with their new model that the hardware demands of AI are not necessarily as high as everyone has assumed (as required by competing models). I've tried their 7b model, running locally on a 6gb laptop GPU. Its not fast, but the results I've had have rivaled GPT4. Its impressive.

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