Is the world becoming uninsurable? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#501

Post by trollbridge » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:36 PM UTC

nojvek wrote: post #477

giorgioz wrote: post #461

It seems everyone is on the same "We will find new solutions to a new problem". I totally agree. Here is a list of all new solutions we need: 1) not insure places at higher risk 2) mass desalinification 3) fix US hot climate grids sparkles and/or place them underground 4) Street corridors to isolate fires in neighborhood 5) Build with more fire-resistant materials 6) Install automated hydrant towers with cameras able…

You’re mostly talking about wildfires. The top 5 most destructive events in US are all hurricanes. They are the size of multiple states and bring more water in a period of a day than rest of annual non-hurricane rainfall. It’s desalinated water falling from a massive sprinkler in the sky.

Wildfires can be avoided by not building wood structures in places that historically have had frequent wildfires. A good way to incentivise this is very high insurance costs, which lenders will require before granting a mortgage. Governments can also enact fire codes.

Buildings can be built out of less fire prone materials, and surrounding non native vegetation avoided which feeds fires. This does mean someone can’t live in LA as if they are in a New England country town.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#502

Post by wakawaka28 » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:36 PM UTC

jyounker wrote: post #447

wakawaka28 wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fire problem can be managed by burning or removing some of the dead wood, and building adequate water storage. Apparently California has been neglecting those two problems for decades.

The problem is the houses. In lots of pictures from LA, there are green trees right beside burned out houses. The video in this NYT article is a great example: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/15/us/los-angeles-wildf... One of the biggest problems are vents in the eves. Typically these vents have a single screen with a coarse mesh. Embers from fires easily pass through these vents, land on a surface, and start a…

The real problem is the FIRE. The houses could be made fire-resistant, but making houses to be fire-resistant is going to be more expensive than managing the forests to reduce wildfires and storing more water. I don't believe that a tiny screen is going to make this huge difference you think it is. These fires are HOT and don't just catch houses on fire with little embers. They are hot enough to set wood and plastic on fire from a pretty good distance away. Green trees don't easily burn because of their high water content. Trees have evolved to survive fires as well.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#503

Post by ToucanLoucan » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:37 PM UTC

giorgioz wrote: post #461

It seems everyone is on the same "We will find new solutions to a new problem". I totally agree. Here is a list of all new solutions we need: 1) not insure places at higher risk 2) mass desalinification 3) fix US hot climate grids sparkles and/or place them underground 4) Street corridors to isolate fires in neighborhood 5) Build with more fire-resistant materials 6) Install automated hydrant towers with cameras able…

> 1) Not all the world will suffer equally from climate change. The parts that are at higher risk should not be insurable so that new housing will not be built there but somewhere else.

So what about the people who already live there...? Like I'm fine telling millionaires their coastal cottages are fucked, but there's a lot more folks out there who've lived in these areas for generations both because they're attached to them emotionally, and also because they can't afford to go anywhere else.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#504

Post by trollbridge » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:41 PM UTC

jopsen wrote: post #476

> The other way the world is becoming uninsurable is much of what we take for granted--abundant, affordable resources, products, food and fuel, for example--is not guaranteed, and cannot be insured by political or technological means. Fuel is not guaranteed, but renewables, batteries, heat pumps, EVs and possible nuclear does increasingly give us a technological option for ensuring power. It's fair to ask if economic…

I’m not sure how heat pumps and batteries “ensure power”. Building far more nuclear would create green jobs, high paying jobs, and ensure widespread power, but the current trend is to close nuclear power plants and burn natural gas instead.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#505

Post by trollbridge » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:42 PM UTC

wesselbindt wrote: post #468

The question this article seems to ask is "is the world becoming insurable while maintaining a profit margin?", not "is the world becoming uninsurable?" These are different questions, with different answers.

Insurance profit margins are razor thin. Many insurers pay out more in claims than they collect in premiums, and the difference is made up with interest and other returns on investments from the insurer’s massive reserves.

Insurers are strictly regulated at the state level. They have to keep enough reserves to pay a surge in claims. And they have to collect enough premiums to pay out an average claim volume, or else the state requires them to shut down.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#506

Post by wakawaka28 » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:43 PM UTC

hbarka wrote: post #308

wakawaka28 wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fire problem can be managed by burning or removing some of the dead wood, and building adequate water storage. Apparently California has been neglecting those two problems for decades.

Frankly, this is just an ignorant take. Put Twitter/Elon Musk down for a bit. The Palisades Fire was not a forest fire. Please dispel your myths and learn what 60-80 mph winds, sometimes 100 mph gusts, can do.

Frankly, everyone has been warning about the risk for years. The fire started as a forest fire (whether it was arson or not), and was anticipated by insurance companies who dropped policies on thousands of people in the months leading up to this. The winds are a big problem of course, but if there were not so many acres of kindling around the city along with insufficient water reservoirs, then a fire like this could not spread as easily as it did. I will give you that the fire could have still happened and been bad either way, but insurance people who literally study this stuff for a living and have skin in the game knew it was likely to get out of control well in advance.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#507

Post by trollbridge » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:45 PM UTC

jandrewrogers wrote: post #323

MagicMoonlight wrote: post #217

What are we betting that the Americans rebuild in wood again? It seems like they never learn. We had a single city fire like this 500 years ago and since then we haven’t… because we built the city back in brick instead of wood.

Americans used to build cities with brick and masonry. They were repeatedly destroyed by strong earthquakes, as would happen to your city if subject to similarly severe earthquakes. Americans paid for that lesson in blood. European houses are not designed to withstand American disasters. A brick house that can survive a M8.5 earthquake, which is the safety standard where I live, will be almost purely steel structural…

Concrete + rebar and then a steel roof secured with hurricane-proof metal straps, or just tile roofing if the area isn’t hurricane prone. Concrete can also be used for things like insulated concrete forms (ICF) that save energy and improve insulation for both hot and cold.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#508

Post by oefnak » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:45 PM UTC

junto wrote: post #404

asciimov wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I briefly lived in Oklahoma I found it frustrating that they use stick frame construction for homes and apartment buildings. Even when we know how to build much safer wind resistant houses. What I thought was worse was once a tornado rips up a neighborhood builders are allowed to build replacement stick framed homes.

And I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your house down. Genuine question. Does this story get told to children in Oklahoma, and if so, don’t the children think to themselves “wtf parents, have you seen our house?”.

Yes, as a European I'm always confused about what Americans think is the moral of that story..

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#509

Post by greenthrow » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:51 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #83

greenthrow wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I remember as a kid in the 80s when wildfires woukd devastate LA every year. Oh wait no it did not happen until recently. Yes wildfires do happen in nature. No this is not normal for this area. Yes it is about climate change. Stop believinf fossil fuel company propaganda.

In some parts of California, fires recur with some regularity. In Oakland, for example, fires of various size and ignition occurred in 1923, 1931, 1933, 1937, 1946, 1955, 1960, 1961, 1968, 1970, 1980, 1990, 1991, 1995, 2002, and 2008. Orange County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, and Los Angeles County are other examples. Orange and San Bernardino counties share a border that runs north to south through the…

Stop trying to muddy the waters, we already agree that wildfires do happen. Nobody disputes that. The frequency and intensity of what we are seeing in recent years is what is not normal. That is due to climate change because of the increased frequency and duration of droughts as well as increased winds.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#510

Post by hhjinks » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 1:53 PM UTC

leguminous wrote: post #432

HacklesRaised wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair we are talking about an area of the country that is prone to seismic activity, it does limit the building materials. Perhaps what should be more commonly accepted is that the US is a land of great natural beauty! And large tracts of it should be left to nature. What's the average monthly leccy bill in Phoenix during the summer? $400? Where does LA get most of its water? Local sources? I don't think that's…

> What's the average monthly leccy bill in Phoenix during the summer? $400? The average high temperature in Phoenix in July is 106.5F (41.4C). If you are cooling to 70.0F (21.1C), that's a difference of 36.5F (20.3C). The average January low in Berlin is 28.0F (-2.2C). If you are heating to 65.0F (18.3C), that's a difference of 37.0F (20.5C). I feel like many people living in climates that don't require air condition…

Recently it was -7C where I lived. Even without heating, my indoor temp didn't go below 15C. In regions where cold temperatures are common, isolation and heat retaining materials are very common. Is preventing heat gain as simple as preventing heat loss?