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GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

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Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't drive, so this is an honest question: > So much vehicle tech is at best unimpressive and at worst positively in my way as a driver. Can you provide some examples? I guess "self-driving" is one.

Its not what the public think of 'self driving'. Its not like you can tell the autopilot where you want to go and then sit back, sleep, turn around, do something else. You have to monitor it. So you are basically paying to take legal responsibility for the crashes of a not-quite-ready autopilot whilst still having to keep alert. The moment there is a true self-driving capability, where you can sit back and let the ca…

Somewhat analogous to letting your 16 year old drive. Quite a bit more stressful than just driving yourself.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#502

> GM said in a statement that “... an increasingly competitive robotaxi market” were the reasons for the change. Isn't there basically Google/Waymo and then, seemingly much further behind, Tesla Cybertaxi, Amazon/Zoox, and Uber/Yandex? Cruise allegedly has one of the most sophisticated autonomous driving platforms, and GM's Super Cruise (if they share any tech) is comparable to Tesla FSD. Strange that they would bow…

> Interest in autonomous driving appears to be cooling across the board. I've had one Tesla for 6 years, another for 2: I've gotten to a point where I find Autopilot boring and turn it off just for something to do. My older Tesla has enhanced Autopilot. As impressive as it is, it's very glitchy. I primarily use it so I don't speed. Because enhanced autopilot was so glitchy, when we added a 2nd Tesla to the household,…

self driving makes total sense if its the sci-fi like dream of being able to read the news or a novel in the drivers seat while your car safely takes you to your destination.

But if I have to maintain a hand on the steering wheel and monitor the car I may as well be driving.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#503
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Small anecdote: I visited a GM dealership this week and the salesperson told me Super Cruise was not enabled for test drives. The excuse was pretty weak, like the dealership would have to pay for the service or something. GM might have the technology but they are completely bungling the strategy. Sadly this is believable, I've asked to check out things like remote start and control of heating/cooling, and the sales…

The whole dealership system is parasitic, rentseeking, friction. Tesla might have a point here. Instead of transparently selling a product for fixed price, the dealer system appears based on information asymmetry, haggling, upcharges, finance bullshit, warranty bullshit, subscription bullshit, and many decades of entrenched psyops culture against customers. On top of that, salespeople are often poorly trained on the…

This is definitely something that Tesla nails imo. No haggling, a single price listed on the website that changes with market conditions. A list of options available with again explicitly listed prices. No slimy car salesperson trying to upsell the scotchguard on your carpets bs. No hidden prices where the websites lists price $x but when you get to the store they tell you its $x + y. A price, a delivery and its over.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That means you live in 1 of like 6 cities in the world. Kind of hard to compare Waymo's approach and Tesla's approach and accurately judge how far ahead Waymo is. Come to my city and you will see exactly 0 Waymo's. And it isn't clear to me if it's much easier for Waymo to scale from 6 cities to tens of thousands of cities or for Tesla to scale from tens of thousands of cities to tens of thousands of cities but better…

I don’t think FSD is vaporware, but I believe it has been massively overpromised and underdelivered. And also, I have reason to believe its going to require yet another major hardware revision - despite teslas protestations

Have a look at V13.2 and tell me they "underdelivered". This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world. It's essentially DriveGPT, trained on absolutely massive amounts of training data on the largest GPU super cluster in the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeNKYRWGgBc

Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#505
post #199

> GM said in a statement that “... an increasingly competitive robotaxi market” were the reasons for the change. Isn't there basically Google/Waymo and then, seemingly much further behind, Tesla Cybertaxi, Amazon/Zoox, and Uber/Yandex? Cruise allegedly has one of the most sophisticated autonomous driving platforms, and GM's Super Cruise (if they share any tech) is comparable to Tesla FSD. Strange that they would bow…

> Interest in autonomous driving appears to be cooling across the board. My pet theory is that it really took off because a bunch of investors were hoping to capture and capitalize on the baby boomers aging out of being able to easily drive themselves. They tried to speed up technological advancements in order to meet that window of a large more-affluent cohort of potential customers. So it might be interesting to so…

Interesting theory but I think the investment issues are simpler, and non-revenue producing business models simply don't make sense outside of the window of the low interest rate years.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#506
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Small anecdote: I visited a GM dealership this week and the salesperson told me Super Cruise was not enabled for test drives. The excuse was pretty weak, like the dealership would have to pay for the service or something. GM might have the technology but they are completely bungling the strategy. Sadly this is believable, I've asked to check out things like remote start and control of heating/cooling, and the sales…

The whole dealership system is parasitic, rentseeking, friction. Tesla might have a point here. Instead of transparently selling a product for fixed price, the dealer system appears based on information asymmetry, haggling, upcharges, finance bullshit, warranty bullshit, subscription bullshit, and many decades of entrenched psyops culture against customers. On top of that, salespeople are often poorly trained on the…

It's really annoying to me because I would love to just pick a dealership and go there for the rest of my life for all things automotive.

I don't like being ripped off but I'm not particularly price sensitive, so I'd love to just show up and pay a reasonable sticker price that was just The Price Everyone Paid and not have this vague haggling system expected, and not have to worry whether I was being ripped because I wanted a particular option. I hate having to think about decisions I don't particularly care about, so I would prefer to constrain my choices to "maker Y's automobiles", be it GM, Ford or Toyota for the rest of my life, so that once I have the capabilities I need out of an automobile there's only one or two choices. I would love the simplicity of the dealer being the default maintainer of my automobile and I just show up once a year or so and they take care of it in a pleasant experience.

It's irksome instead that it feels like they just want to trick you out of as much money as possible up front and that they don't want to have a maintenance department, but are legally required to.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a straight-up random Google citation ( https://www.cotes.com/blog/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-ev-... ) Production of EVs and batteries generate more CO2 before the first wheel turns, however, the total carbon footprint of ICE vehicles quickly overtake that of the EVs after 15,000 miles (24,140 km) of driving. - It takes a typical EV about one year in operation to achieve "carbon parity" with an ICE vehicle. - If…

> the total carbon footprint of ICE vehicles quickly overtake that of the EVs after 15,000 miles (24,140 km) of driving Shouldn't we be comparing an old ICE which was already built years ago but is still operating vs building a new EV to replace it? The carbon footprint of building the ICE is almost irrelevant, it's just the ongoing damage it is doing. Compare that with footprint of building and operating the EV that…

That would be comparing apples to oranges, you want apples to apples.

Everyone replaces their car at some point. If you are comparing a new EV, its best to compare its impact compared to a new ICE. We all know its probably best in most cases to keep any vehicle, even one that is inefficient, on the road for its useful life.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#508

Frankly, I think Tesla is going to win this. The new self-driving is remarkably good. Based on this alone, I estimate (actual) level 5 self driving in 2-3 years. I'm convinced that the lidar sensors are essentially unnecessary and the vision-only strategy is basically going to work and be much cheaper in the process.

> I think Tesla is going to win this.

If Tesla can do level 5 in 2-3 years as you say (and that might be a pretty big “if”), that places them 5+ years behind Waymo.

What leads to the win here, then? Waymo constrained by the cost of LIDAR? Is it truly such a massive % of build cost that they can’t succeed? Is it that Tesla is vertically integrated?

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#509

> GM said in a statement that “... an increasingly competitive robotaxi market” were the reasons for the change. Isn't there basically Google/Waymo and then, seemingly much further behind, Tesla Cybertaxi, Amazon/Zoox, and Uber/Yandex? Cruise allegedly has one of the most sophisticated autonomous driving platforms, and GM's Super Cruise (if they share any tech) is comparable to Tesla FSD. Strange that they would bow…

> Cruise allegedly has one of the most sophisticated autonomous driving platforms, and GM's Super Cruise (if they share any tech) is comparable to Tesla FSD.

The facts don't matter anymore.

Just perception.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#510
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I test-drove a Model S about that time - it was hair-raising because the system would correct the cars position about a half-second after I would have. I hovered my hands by the wheel the whole time, waiting for it to careen us into a bridge abutment. While SuperCruise is a highway only system, riding in a friend's car with it was pretty much a non-event.

Are you comparing a system 10 years ago with a system now?

Realistically, how many chances do you think the average person is going to give the alg to drive them into an object at 70mph?

Has there been a significant customer side advancement in Tesla autopilot in 10 years? From what I can tell, all Elon has accomplished is becoming the new Prius- a sprinkling of Teslas blocking the left lane of our highways (ask any Autopilot aficionado, that’s the safest place to use it) while the human inside watches TikTok.

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