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It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

theatlantic.com

501–510 of 599 posts

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An LLM is not going to go skynet. It's not smart enough and can't take initiative. An AGI however could. Once it reaches IQs of more than say 500 it would become very hard to control it.

Power cord?

It won't be that simple because it will anticipate your every move once it gets intelligent enough.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Power cord?

It is possible that some hypothetical super intelligent future AI will do something very clever like hide in a coding assistant and then distribute bits of itself around the planet in the source code of all of our stoplights and medical equipment. However I think it’s more likely that it will LARP as “I’m an emotionally supportive beautiful AI lady, please download me to your phone, don’t take out the battery or I di…

> It is possible that some hypothetical super intelligent future AI will do something very clever like hide in a coding assistant and then distribute bits of itself around the planet in the source code of all of our stoplights and medical equipment.

That was part of the plot of person of interest. A really interesting show, it started as a basic "monster of the week" show but near the end it became a much more interesting plot.

Although most of the human characters were extremely one-dimensional. Especially Jim Caviezel's who was just a grumpy super soldier in every episode. It was kinda funny because they called him "the man in the suit" in the series and there was indeed little else to identify his character. The others were hardly better :(

But the AI storyline I found very interesting.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#503
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, you can be economical. You don't need a GPT-4 quality model for everything. Some things are just low value where a 3.5 model would do just fine. I never use the $20 plan but I access everything via API and i spend a couple of dollars per month. Although lately I have a home server that can do llama 3.1 8b uncensored and that actually works amazingly well.

What’s your home server specs? I might want to host something like that too but I think I’d need to upgrade.

An old Ryzen CPU (2600 IIRC) and Radeon Pro VII 16GB. Got it new at a really good price.

It works ok but with a large context it can still run out of memory and also gets a lot slower. With small context it's super snappy and surprisingly good. What it is bad at are facts/knowledge but this is not something a LLM is meant to do anyway. OpenWebUI has really good search engine integration which makes it work like perplexity does. That's a better option for knowledge usecases.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#504
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is certainly true. But the market began searching in earnest for "really competent X" in this field only about 2 years ago. Before that, it was a decidedly opt-in affair..

Are you saying the average AI researcher isn't good? I'm not arguing with you, I just can't parse what you are saying here.

I'm saying that both the volume and upper bound are increasing, not becoming constrained.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#505
post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theres never going to be quality data at tge scale they need it. At best, theres a slow march to incremental improvements that look exactly like how human culture developed knowledge. And all the downsides will remain, the same way people, despite hundreds of good sourxes of info still prefer garbage.

Nobody close the the edge of this tech seems to believe that this is true, and the 4o release suggests synthetic approaches work well.

Beliefs and outcomes are different things.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this was their most important moat for you, what is their moat now that it is gone?

They don't have one, which is why they're struggling to maintain market share. They run solely on brand loyalty, and slightly on competing with AWS and GCP to sell server hosting to people with more money than sense.

So you believe they became the most valuable company in the world (a few times recently though Apple is currently 13% ahead) with no moat? That's an interesting take. Is it possible you just don't know much about them?

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#509
post #475
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has to be owned by someone, that does not make it agenda driven. Who would you rather have it owned by so that it is not agenda driven?

It’s not a hypothetical we aren’t assuming spherical cows today. Those specific people have a long and public track record that answers this question. It’s not a secret, like I said. There are plenty of editors out there who have never decided to concoct ludicrous stories of Al Queda bases in the Amazon to name one example. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2002/10/28/in-the-party-o...

you still have not answered my question... who should own that you will believe it is impartial?

Should I assume bias and impartiality for your Day One conference simply by who you are and who is behind you? The Washington Post is owned by Jeff Bezos, your opinion on that?

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#510
>Understand AI for what it is, not what it might become

Is kind of a boring way of looking at things. I mean we have fairly good chatbots and image generators now but it's where the future is going that's the interesting bit.

Lumping AI in with dot coms and crypto seems a bit silly. It's a different category of thing.

(By the way Sam being shifty or not techy or not seems kind of incidental to it all.)

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