Earlier quoted context omitted.
Except... you can recharge a lithium-ion battery many, many times before you have to replace it. You get to use gasoline one time. The absolute best efficiency of a gasoline engine is somewhere around 40% efficiency, with most being a lot lower. So your 48MJ number is a lot closer to ~19MJ. So, assuming you can recharge a lithium battery 100 times (most are going to be capable of many times that), you're break even i…
In your metaphor the battery would be akin to the gas tank though, rather than the gasoline that fills the tank. I think my gas tank can be emptied and filled more times than a battery and it doesn't lose capacity the more it's used or when it's cold out!
Every gas car I'm aware of loses efficiency when it's colder outside. It's not as drastic as an EV, but it definitely exists. Also, gas engines tend to get slightly less efficient as they age, just as components begin to have higher friction, increased wear, worse tolerances, etc.