Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t understand why people see this future as guaranteed, just because GPT4 was a great improvement on 3.5 does not imply this approach will continue accelerating at this rate. I am not saying it definitely won’t happen but I find the confidence that it will pretty baffling.
We have numerous examples that have worked this way throughout the history of computing. It would be shocking if it plateaued this early.
I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
501–510 of 713 posts
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#502Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, I can tell you that the first time I see some sufficiently advanced AI walking in the streets between the public, I will grab my baseball bat and smash it to pieces.
AIs should have human rights, if we are able to upload our us into computer we need a precedence that post humans are humans too.
I can play word games like saying "consciousness" is the opposite of "unconsciousness" (or alternatively and IMO not entirely compatibility that it is the opposite of "subconsciousness"), but every time I've looked at this, it's either ended with (1) circular definitions, (2) definitions that accidentally include VHS players connected to TV set, or (3) things that humans regularly fail at.
None of that actually helps figure out whether or not a machine does or doesn't have that which makes us have the experience of being.
Getting it wrong, in either direction, is a Bad Ending.
https://kitsunesoftware.wordpress.com/2022/06/18/lamda-turin...
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#503The discussion is creating 3 groups: First group is sure AI will be an enabler and it won't replace them; The second group is saying AI won't replace them at least in the near future (1~10 years); Then we have the third group, which is basically the sentiment the op is living rn: AI is taking away their hopes, dreams, and livelihood. Now, I think we'll see the strongest counterculture in human history against AI and…
And then industrial revolution didn't take out jobs, rather created more. So did computers in the 80s and 90s. I remember typesetters in our locality were protesting in the 80s that computers were taking off their jobs. They started something like "burn the computers" movement. More people were later employed as composers than there were typesetters.
It absolutely did take jobs. It's just that the job loss in one area was compensated by the growth in other areas.
However hoping that it'll be the same with AI is incredible naive. The job shift in the industrial revolution was possible since there were still lots of tasks left that the machines couldn't do. The areas that can't be done by a machine now are dramatically shrinking with advanced AI. There is not much area left where jobs can shift too.
The creative jobs can be automated just the same as everything dealing with digital data. Skilled trades, carpenter, plumbers and electricians might still be safe for some years, as robots still struggle with climbing a ladder or even just stairs, but those are areas that don't seem to be destined for rapid growth. Whatever new job you can think of, will probably be automated away before a human ever get a chance to touch it.
The most impressive part with ChatGPT and friends after all isn't just that they are reasonably good at what they are doing, but how universal they are. ChatGPT didn't need to be meticulously programmed to do the things it does, it learned most of that by itself just from the data feed into it. Meaning there really isn't any domain that you can't automate with AI in the long run.
What's left for humans? No idea.
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#504People are already generating entire apps with AI in minutes. Software engineering as a profession is finished. We are all now slaves to Roko’s Basilisk.
Most apps worth money have to integrate with existing systems in highly specific ways determined by endless meetings with real people to extract the requirements and probably haven't been done before and are usually all proprietary code ChatGPT doesn't know about and there's not a cobol's chance in hell anyone is going to rewrite it all in a way that's compatible with junk hallucinated by a bot. There's no business c…
[0] Surely someone will quickly post that it is.
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#505Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who is "we"? The rich will decide, and probably that they can do without most of the "we".
I agree with that sentiment, just a small correction: It's not the rich who will decide; it's the powerful . In the classical sense of "capacity to impose will" – up to and including the capacity to turn off {machines, humans, institutions}. There's a strong correlation between wealth and power, but those groups are not identical. And neither are their staying prospects in the coming years.
Like, how many people do the wealthy/powerful actually need? What level of automation will allow maintaining their lifestyle, including:
1. Biological needs: Food & a sufficiently diverse pool of mates for themselves and their children.
2. A social hierarchy large enough to flex their power beyond mere biological survival (very important to primates). I'd expect this number to be strictly smaller than for 1), so likely not a concern: as long as there are enough people to biologically sustain a population, there are enough people to subjugate.
3. Technological scaffolding to produce, maintain and bootstrap (in case of calamities) said automation. Currently humans are a necessary physical substrate for the continued inflow of energy that automation needs. I don't have the numbers but the footprint to run even a single power plant must be tremendous: a large and complex society, once you include 2nd order effects. Without energy, the machines don't go "VRRROOM" and neither does AI.
And if the human population drops too low to interfere with any of these points, the automation was self-defeating. It doesn't matter how rich or powerful you were.
I mean, I'm sure someone somewhere ran the numbers and has a plan ready, while the rest of us wax lyrical about "just find a new job LOL" and UBI. Although to be fair, there are also preppers, who've taken the above analysis to its logical conclusion.
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#506Earlier quoted context omitted.
Compilers and high-level languages assuredly reduced the number of engineers needed, right? No: we just started making much more complicated things and the basic level of "this isn't even a serviceable solution" has gone up so high that if you sat around and wrote a trivial program designed to be used over a teletype--which is got much easier as you can do it in C instead of assembly--you'd lose in the market to your…
Would being the pet of an AI-run civilisation be so bad though? Iain M Banks's Culture novels explore basically this concept, and his vision of utopia is quite appealing.
The Culture appeals to me, but there are literary critics who find even The Culture, let alone the grander environment beyond it, to be dystopian. And I definitely don't want to wake up dead with my mind in one of Joiler Veppers' simulations.
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#507Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the words have a warmth that generated text lacks Reminds me of my philosophy teacher in high-school that gave me the best grade of the year and praised how "personal" it felt, for an essay I had bought online for 3 euros. The irony of it still makes me chuckle 15 years later.
Where's the irony?
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#508Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Unabomber was notable for manufacturing his own screws, so I'm not sure how many artisanal nail makers remain. In those days nails were re-used, it was such a pain to make them.
there are still companies that make cut or square nails - and machines that make them are old.
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#509Earlier quoted context omitted.
Curious - on a scale out of 10, how much of that was written by ChatGPT? No offense intended - if the answer is zero, my apologies
https://openai-openai-detector.hf.space/ Using this tool on the comment yields a 77.6% fake score. To give (pretty limited) contrast, a response from ChatGPT gives 99.9% fake, and another comment from this thread gives 0.1% fake. I assume that means the comment text was GPT-assisted, with some moderate editing from a human.
Re: I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney
#510Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm witnessing engineers on my team and myself saving a lot of time in development and in operations (scripting). I have no doubt in my mind it is reducing the need for more engineers and has probably already contributed to a reduction of them and I think it's just getting started.
Compilers and high-level languages assuredly reduced the number of engineers needed, right? No: we just started making much more complicated things and the basic level of "this isn't even a serviceable solution" has gone up so high that if you sat around and wrote a trivial program designed to be used over a teletype--which is got much easier as you can do it in C instead of assembly--you'd lose in the market to your…
I think your argument requires a paradigm shift like teletype -> web to soak up the new productivity. I don't think we have that today. For how many purposes have we reached peak consumer software capability? i.e. global reach to publish text, images, video and make purchases is the entire use case of most media and commerce businesses. If you gave every company double the amount of dev resources tomorrow, do they even have anything to build? Even for those with deep feature roadmaps, how much of that stuff is just nice-to-have things that won't move the revenue needle anyway?
Maybe we will get that new platform from AR or direct brain interfaces... but without it, the situation looks more like how the human role of "computer" just vanished... sure we then got programmers, but they weren't necessarily the same people.