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What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

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Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#501
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) Understanding the origin doesn't change the consequences or response to the pandemic I have the opposite opinion. If there was a lab leak and a coverup, this meant that the Chinese government likely knew earlier and had more information about the nature of the virus and how it spread. That could have saved millions of lives. We spent the first several months of the pandemic under the belief that it wasn't airbor…

Airborne was always known; debate was droplet vs aerosol (particle size and thus dwell time/radius). Not really a binary distinction anyway; a matter of degree.

> the World Health Organization said that there is not sufficient evidence to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is airborne

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#502
post #499
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel few people actually have legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth. Either theory is perfectly viable given the evidence we currently have. This has been extensively investigated by scientists - it’d be a career making move if you could prove something that juicy! - but the problem is that the conclusions aren’t completely certain but rather comparing probability & the limited evidence to concl…

We know in science that sometimes scientific results for analyses based largely on suppositions regress toward the mean, and this effect is stronger when prestige or politics are on the line. This is called "ideological hegemony" and it reproduces itself in the halls of power because those who occupy those halls are all funneled through the same conditioning programs. I'm not sure what to say further other than "I gu…

Too much is at stake based on one or another direction to trust any conclusions.

One could still say "My god! This virus could have been even worse, more deadly! Lab leak or not, the entire planet should double check conditions at all labs, ensure proper containment and processes exist!"

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#503
post #410
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. One thing I’d add, is that this entire debate regarding the lab leak hypothesis is entirely politicized, and I feel few people actually have legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth. Either theory is perfectly viable given the evidence we currently have.

> and I feel few people actually have legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth Not to be glib, but what would be a legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth? That this plausibly could have been of natural origin would seem to override any value in discerning where it actually came from. If it was a lab leak, "Oops." We hastened it occuring naturally by some amount of time. Lots of people…

>what would we do differently if it were a lab leak? Increase biocontainment protocols?

Ban gain of function research.

There are many virologists who make compelling arguments that the hypothetical benefits of the research (which have yet to materialize) pale in comparison to the risks.

Every day that goes by that GoF research fails to materialize any of its hypothetical benefits makes the case against it ever stronger.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#504
post #410
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. One thing I’d add, is that this entire debate regarding the lab leak hypothesis is entirely politicized, and I feel few people actually have legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth. Either theory is perfectly viable given the evidence we currently have.

> and I feel few people actually have legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth Not to be glib, but what would be a legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth? That this plausibly could have been of natural origin would seem to override any value in discerning where it actually came from. If it was a lab leak, "Oops." We hastened it occuring naturally by some amount of time. Lots of people…

> Or, in other words, what would we do differently if it were a lab leak?

If the virus is a laboratory construct (e.g., a recombinant of two novel natural viruses with a human-chosen FCS; we can argue about how likely that was, but no genomic evidence can exclude that), then it would near-certainly never have existed without that laboratory manipulation. The pandemic could near-certainly have been permanently avoided simply by not constructing it. This was a matter of controversy long before the pandemic; such work was banned in 2014, but the ban expired in 2017:

https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-lifts-3-year-ban...

If the virus is naturally-evolved but sampled and released accidentally by scientists, then it might otherwise later have been released accidentally by infected non-scientists. It wouldn't have been necessarily though, especially since WIV researchers sampled remote bat caves that no other humans routinely entered. Sampling of sites with significant existing human traffic (farms, markets, tourism sites, etc.) seems like a clear benefit, a negligible increase in the existing risk of natural spillover. Sampling of remote sites without such traffic seems much less clear.

There's something weird about public attitude to biological risks. When the government did a controlled burn in New Mexico that got out of control and destroyed hundreds of houses, everyone involved recognized that they'd screwed up, even though fires also occur naturally, and even though controlled burns are a valuable tool in controlling natural fires. It seems that intuition doesn't hold for lab-origin pandemics. The 1977 flu originated from scientific research (although the exact nature of that research--whether it was a failed vaccine, or a vaccine challenge trial, or an experiment at the bench--is disputed), and it killed about 700k people. No one seems to care, and I don't really understand why.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The WIV was in Wuhan due to the proximity of coronaviruses and other bat-borne diseases like rhabdovirusus.. this line of logic is akin to blaming shark research centers in South Africa for nearby attacks.

I don't think so? The bats are generally from Southern China, Laos, Cambodia, .. Nowhere near Wuhan.

There are tons of horseshoe bats in Hubei, that particular misunderstanding needs to go away.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#506
Its pretty much alive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick...

Considering the history of 'budget cuts to cut government spending' combined with 'innovation' causing many environmental and social disasters in the US, I see a lab leak from the US Army's lab in Maryland much more credible than anywhere else. Budgets get cut by 75% by Trump Admn. The Army labs 'get creative' in cutting costs and the rest follows.

The lab seems to have started having 'problems with its sanitation and security'. Upon which the US government tried to get the army shut it down. Army refused. The government had to get a court order to shut the lab down around June 2019. At this point, a 'pneumonia' outbreak was reported in the retirement communities around Maryland. Also, the army team that went to military games to China, Wuhan were trained here before leaving for China.

Note this kind of thing probably happened before, and it will happen again: Loosely regulated private and state GMO research is a MAJOR risk for entire humanity - just one lab screws up due to budget cuts or while trying to 'innovate', and you can never take back what gets out of that lab.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#507
post #207
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny then how for the first few months of the pandemic the emphasis and public guidance was on desinfecting hands and surfaces and endless debates about how if masks actually help.

No one competent has debated that masks help.

> “Seriously people - STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus“

- Jerome Adams, former US Surgeon General, M.D.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#508
post #410
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. One thing I’d add, is that this entire debate regarding the lab leak hypothesis is entirely politicized, and I feel few people actually have legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth. Either theory is perfectly viable given the evidence we currently have.

> and I feel few people actually have legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth Not to be glib, but what would be a legitimate scientific interest in discovering the truth? That this plausibly could have been of natural origin would seem to override any value in discerning where it actually came from. If it was a lab leak, "Oops." We hastened it occuring naturally by some amount of time. Lots of people…

Game theory effects on future lab technicians, administrators and security personnel. We punish crime and criminal negligence to deter it in the future by public knowledge that it will be punished.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#510

Its pretty much alive. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick... Considering the history of 'budget cuts to cut government spending' combined with 'innovation' causing many environmental and social disasters in the US, I see a lab leak from the US Army's lab in Maryland much more credible than anywhere else. Budgets get cut by 75% by Trump Admn. The Army labs 'get creative' in cutting costs and…

Imagine if this was coupled with the “publish or perish” academic culture. Do any universities have similar labs?
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