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Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

arstechnica.com

501–510 of 581 posts

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#501
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla (and Comma.ai ?) seem to be the only groups that find Lidar unnecessary for L5 self-driving. There is another group who find Lidar unnecessary for driving: humans.

Sure. But that’s a moot point if it turns out you need to basically replicate large parts of the human brain in order to drive with cameras alone.

It's not just about the processing. To match human vision, cameras would need to be able to swivel and to adjust their focus extremely quickly. Animal eyes are a lot more than static cameras.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#503
post #502

Elon Musks reply on twitter: > To my surprise, Tesla has better AI hardware & software than Waymo (money) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1353564655088619520

"I'm rubber, your glue". A completely void reply.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#504
post #259

FSD is all about collecting insane amount of data about edge cases that happen in the real world. Tesla has built the infrastructure for this, and will win the FSD race by a wide margin.

Is snow an edge case? My cameras don't function when it's snowing or there's snow in the ground. Or there's snow banks around the road. My dash is lit with the "some cameras are blocked" 24/7 for the whole winter time. And proximity readings are blinking those yellow / red lights all the time from the right side as it thinks the snow bank next to the road is too close. Or the system thinks the camera is blocked becau…

If camera don't function in snow, then Waymo is in a worst position because they rely on Lidar -- which simply cannot work in snow, at all.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#505
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are six cases of death where autopilot was confirmed to be engaged at the time of the incident, with 15 total that claim AP was engaged but had not been proven (via post-crash analysis or otherwise). https://www.tesladeaths.com/ Based on reviewing the articles linked to the data, only one includes a lawsuit that claims the driver fell asleep before the crash. Doing this would either require a weight on the whee…

I would advice you look into who actually runs tesladeaths.com and make up your own conclusion.

I'm fully aware - there's even a TSLAQ at the bottom of the page which is ironic given the recent stock surge. Nevertheless, it looks like it's the only source that tries to count deaths involving autopilot, so you can take their number then go through the articles to make a more informed conclusion.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#506

Why not develop roads that act like tracks and can be guided by an algorithm. Seems like a simpler problem albeit less robust than autonomous vehicle

What happens when a deer crosses the road? What happens when there's a fire along the highway (e.g California)? What happens when there's debris and objects in the road? What happens if a car needs to make an emergency stop? Where do you place these new roads? Do they require roads to be re-built or can they be added to existing roads? What is the cost of replacing the entire highway and city infrastructure? The AV c…

Simpler doesn't mean cheaper. Also simpler doesn't preclude AI either

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#507
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that Tesla are the only company to have put something approaching autonomy into the hands of customers, that does seem to be the case. Well, that’s Waymo (in Phoenix) which has put out anything approaching autonomy, not Tesla. Tesla requires a driver.

yes, but Waymo uses high resolution mapping for that particular city. That does not scale.

It does not scale because Elon Musk said so? That HD mapping doesn't scale is the biggest trope in autonomous driving that I see Tesla fans repeating everywhere. Google, for example, has large scale mapping experience and their street view cars have been carrying Lidar sensors for years now. They've already mapped a bunch of cities in the US.

Tesla itself uses HD maps for things like intersections, traffic lights and so on. It's just not at the level of detail others use it for.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect Tesla and Waymo to be the 2 best driverless solutions in the near future. Tesla is a real competitor to Waymo, as the better sensor has a litmited time advantage until deep learning algorithms improve even more. Waymo doesn't have too much time to get back the billions of dollars of invested R&D money, while Tesla is already profitable even without self driving.

I've never been convinced that deep learning is the correct approach for something so nuanced as driving a car. Deep learning is excellent for generalisations and consolidating data into single metrics. It's not so good at identifying edge-cases and reacting accordingly, those cases are more likely to be merged into other reaction types.

> nuanced as driving a car

Ha. Have you ever tried to play Go? When you feel competent, learn that there are still many orders of magnitude that can't even be told because the language is completely foreign to one who doesn't already think in it.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#509

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you even listened to him talk? Every word that comes out of his mouth is poured over to make sure that it contains truth.

It's been 311 days since Elon Musk promised to produce ventilators at the SpaceX factory. It's been 546 days since Elon Musk claimed Tesla was increasing production of solar roofs towards one thousand per week by end of 2019 It's been 644 days since Elon Musk said there will be a million fully autonomous Tesla robotaxis in a year It's been 726 days since Elon Musk said Tesla would likely be cash flow positive in all…

Please do something else with your time.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of them have to deal with fat tail risks. (to quote nissim ntaleb). I do not know about dbw pedals but power steering and anti-lock breaking operate 100% deterministically and the only true unknown is controlled by the driver.

There's still mechanical failure to deal with.

I am uniquely equipped to answer that question. Did an undergrad in mech E and worked as an automobile engineer for while before pivoting to computer vision and ML.

The safety standard that mechanical parts need to abide by are orders of magnitude higher than any Vision/Software product. Additionally, mechanical failures are rarely catastrophic. The part will most likely alert you hours/days in advance that it has begun to fail. Additionally, when catastrophic failure does happen, it often leads to the car stopping and not ramming through a busy intersection.

The problem with ML algorithms, is that they fail without warning and without intuition. It is incredibly hard to design against catastrophe. ML algos are also great at overfitting, so they can often learn to beat narrow tests while being inept at dealing with the exact scenario the test was supposed to evaluate it for. (I know, I know, "Don't tune on the test set!"... but human factors make it near impossible to avoid some level of it)

We are in dire need of a regulatory/evaluation body for AI that consists of top-tier ML researchers. Now that can be a govt. body or a 3rd party contractor that works closely with the Govt. But, we need to start laying the groundwork and debating around it now. So when we do need it, it is ready to be deployed.

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