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Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

reuters.com

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Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#501

Post by nullsense »

thebruce87m wrote: post #356
fcsp wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering all the excluded groups on the trial (page 3, kids, 55+, obese, weak immune system, a lot more), it's a lot of exclusions, how does one get from results on a study like this to declaring the vaccine safe for general use?

Maybe a stupid question, but do we need to vaccinate everyone? I remember reading that heard immunity is 70% or something - so could we get away with leaving the people out that it wasn’t tested on?

Theoretically the % of people needed to reach herd immunity is a function of how infectious the virus is. They use a number R to represent for each person who gets infected how many people they go on to infect. This changes over time as different measures come into place like lockdowns, masks, and social distancing. The basic reproductive number R0 (R-naught) is how infectious the virus is initially without any of those measures in place. The formula for the % of people needed to reach herd immunity is R0-1/R0. So if R0 is 4 then you need 3/4 of the population. If R0 is 3 then you need 2/3.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#502

Post by Viliam1234 »

Animats wrote: post #499

This is only one of 11 vaccines now in phase III efficacy tests.[1] Six vaccines already have "partial approval", but those are the ones in Russia and China, which may or may not be working, and the governments decided to try anyway. All of those provoke an immune response. Whether it's enough of the right immune response is found out in phase III testing. Something is probably going to work. The big question is how…

> A 50% effective vaccine might be an overall lose - only half are protected but more than that abandon masks and social distancing.

I remember a similar argument being used against face masks. (That they are not perfect, and may cause harm by giving false sense of security.) Perhaps we should be more careful about perfect being the enemy of good.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#503

Post by whimsicalism »

cwhiz wrote: post #436
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who know they've been vaccinated will behave more recklessly than people who haven't been vaccinated. You need to have a control group, in order to assess the efficacy (and safety) of the vaccine. If the control group is wearing masks and socially distancing, but the vaccinated group is going partying at bars and clubs every night, then comparisons of how often each group gets infected won't have much meaning.…

What you’re describing as “reckless behavior” is just normal behavior in a non-covid world. If vaccine candidates are social distancing, wearing masks, and staying home how will the researchers get the data they need? If you are following “covid best practices” it is extremely unlikely that you will contract covid. Would the researchers not want people to go out and live their normal lives?

Just think critically for a few minutes before commenting your next new objection to see if you can come up with what the problem might be.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#504

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

cwhiz wrote: post #418

Can someone explain to me why double blind is necessary or useful for a vaccine trial such as this? It seems obvious to me on something like a pain medicine, but on a vaccine it seem a pointless. Is placebo an actual issue with a vaccine? It honestly seems borderline unethical to give people a placebo vaccine.

If you tell people whether they're now vaccinated, they're going to take a lot more risks.

You may still have increased risk taking behavior if you don't tell them whether they got the real vaccine or placebo, but it will be equally increased across the experiment and control groups.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#505

Post by whimsicalism »

elevenoh wrote: post #500
maxehmookau wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, that's for sure. The idea that there's a pretty decent chance that I've been vaccinated already which means I don't have to wait for a vaccine is great. My life can begin to go back to normal potentially months before it otherwise would.

>My life can begin to go back to normal potentially months before it otherwise would. Howso? Socialization is a multi-party dynamic. Folks might not care/believe you if you state 'I'm vaccinated' until it's widely accepted.

Maybe I'm a dunce but I would believe a friend if they say they're vaccinated or already got covid.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#506

Post by whimsicalism »

pbourke wrote: post #420
maxehmookau wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, that's for sure. The idea that there's a pretty decent chance that I've been vaccinated already which means I don't have to wait for a vaccine is great. My life can begin to go back to normal potentially months before it otherwise would.

Are participants eventually informed whether they’re in the treatment or control groups?

At the end of study.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#507

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

elevenoh wrote: post #500
maxehmookau wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, that's for sure. The idea that there's a pretty decent chance that I've been vaccinated already which means I don't have to wait for a vaccine is great. My life can begin to go back to normal potentially months before it otherwise would.

>My life can begin to go back to normal potentially months before it otherwise would. Howso? Socialization is a multi-party dynamic. Folks might not care/believe you if you state 'I'm vaccinated' until it's widely accepted.

Right now, many, many folks don't seem to care that people aren't vaccinated either.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#508

Post by babar »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #494
tarboreus wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, this is overblown. Most of the budget for these corporations goes to marketing, and the R&D mostly goes to repatenting efforts or incremental repurposings. They rarely come out with anything new, and if you look at recent years you may as well say that they never do.

Most of the budget for these corporations goes to marketing Often repeated, but the data doesn't bear it out, especially in aggregate. https://www.raps.org/getattachment/5578195e-ed51-4f03-8adc-c...

The article that graph comes from indicates that is self-reported data from the companies which may not be consistent in what is considered R&D vs. marketing cost.

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2019/7/...

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#509

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

xwdv wrote: post #348
maxehmookau wrote: post #341

I'm in the trial. It's really exciting, not least because form a purely selfish point of view, I might be immune already! ...or not. But it's exciting either way! AMA?

What if something goes horribly wrong and the vaccine trial causes unwanted side effects? Why risk it, what are they paying you?

What if something goes horribly normally and you catch the virus the vaccine is supposed to prevent?

It's a risk tradeoff, different between the phases. I'd probably volunteer for a phase 3 trial if one was available in my area. Phase 1 would be a bit too hot for me.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#510

Post by BurningFrog »

fcsp wrote: post #390
Bobblebobble wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This phase I/II study's primary objective was to learn about the safety of the vaccine, and about whether it causes an immune response. I'm no expert, but I expect the phase III trials in the US and India will include a broader population.

Ah, thanks for clarifying that you participated in phase 1/2, I had not gotten this from skimming through the document, that makes a lot more sense to me. Thanks for sharing!

It is mentioned up top, but I had to search for it.
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