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Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

timjrobinson.com

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Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#501

A UBI paid for with a carbon tax would both save us from the worst consequences of global warming and stimulate the economy. It's hard to find a rational excuse for not doing it. Planet Money did a great episode on this idea over 7 years ago: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/07/12/201502003/epis... They did a followup 5 years later: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/07/18/630267782/epis... It seems like…

The Planet Money episode is about a revenue neutral carbon tax. UBI funded carbon tax doesn't make any sense to tie those 2 things together. Carbon emissions would decrease with a carbon tax, but the amount of revenue needed for UBI would stay roughly the same. This means we would need to tax carbon even more. This would create a feedback loop where energy is prices explode uncontrollably. Basically, if you live in Alaska and need to heat your house and drive a truck, you're basically screwed.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#503

A UBI paid for with a carbon tax would both save us from the worst consequences of global warming and stimulate the economy. It's hard to find a rational excuse for not doing it. Planet Money did a great episode on this idea over 7 years ago: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/07/12/201502003/epis... They did a followup 5 years later: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/07/18/630267782/epis... It seems like…

I don't see how this would really work. A carbon tax in an ideal situation is just a consumption tax. This means that it's the consumer that pays it. Rich people don't eat more food nor do they drive dozens of cars at once. If we want this carbon tax to offset our greenhouse emissions then that means it will necessarily disproportionately impact poor people. And then you want to turn around and pay that money back to…

They don't eat more food, but they travel more, they buy more produced goods, they buy more cars, etc.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#504
post #419

A UBI paid for with a carbon tax would both save us from the worst consequences of global warming and stimulate the economy. It's hard to find a rational excuse for not doing it. Planet Money did a great episode on this idea over 7 years ago: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/07/12/201502003/epis... They did a followup 5 years later: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/07/18/630267782/epis... It seems like…

One of my best friends is an academic economist working in this space, so while I won’t pretend to be an expert, I have spent a goodly amount of time discussing this with one. With no disrespect intended to you personally, this policy you propose makes no sense. Without putting words in your mouth, it looks to me like “two things I as a progressive like the idea of”, rather than a coherent economic policy. Carbon tax…

Agreed on the framing, coupling and on carbon tax generally. Carbon taxes are a sort of economic theory gone rogue as it hits the political scene. I am extremely frustrated that the green side of politics is pushing this so hard. It's a dead end.

Disagree totally on UBI. A rational UBI plan would recover 25%-50% of the UBI somehow. Income tax, a VAT or other mechanism. In addition, a UBI takes pressure and saves costs of other social programs. Directly reduce poverty. Have less poverty. Spend less on other poverty reduction programs. There is also a strong "stimulus" effect. UBI generates economic activity. That get taxed. Government revenue increases.

Considering the benefits, I think it's a no-brainer for countries with a strong enough economy to support it.

A lot of the benefits are unknown, but I suspect some of the biggest wins will be in some of the most intractable problem areas. A big one currently is the town/city dichotomy. Successful cities are very successful. High salaries. Career opportunities. Low unemployment. Unfortunately, much of that is eaten up by inflation local to these cities.

UBI is geo-agnostic income. The effects on cheap, lower income areas could be very profound. Bear in mind that this problem is a graveyard of failed policies. A lot has been tried. Little has worked. This has much better odds.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#505
The best argument for UBI is that we already have it in some form. Most modern nations have lots of issues but the poor starving is not one of them. In fact, obesity due to over consumption seems to be correlated with (relative) poverty in many countries. The reason for this is that we have all sorts of safety nets that collectively mean that you are taken care of one way or another. Food, shelter, and to some extent health care are pretty much taken care off in most countries. It's almost universal with some notable exceptions.

Introducing UBI properly is basically just simplifying the status quo and has useful side effects in the form of it being overall cheaper, simpler, more effective, and fairer.

More importantly, it can act as an economic stimulus as well. Yes, there's a cost but it's not different than any other economic stimulus. The current corona crisis is basically a good example of governments printing a little extra cash to help out businesses and people. We're talking trillions here. Economies are not closed/circular systems and increasing the supply of money is routine. The role of central banks is to control the rate at which we print new money to keep inflation in line with economic growth. So people waiving the cost argument without considering the benefits are being disingenuous. Bailing out a bank is no different than bailing out an unemployed person. If we can do one, we can do the other. And we routinely bail out banks and other industries to the extend of trillions.

From an economics point of view, more people with disposable income is actually great because it increases spending. It's a particularly effective form of economic stimulus. Perhaps more effective than bailing out a few wealthy individuals could ever be. The current model of all the wealth accumulating with a small group of people is actually bad because while they spend some of it, a lot of the wealth just disappears abroad via off shore accounts, spending in other nations economies, travel, etc. Increasing incomes at the bottom by a few percent on the other hand basically feeds almost entirely in the local economy. People spend it and they mostly spend it locally benefiting local businesses. You could argue that our current system of sucking the lower classes dry so we can provide tax benefits to the rich is actually killing our economy and is actively harmful. This form of reverse robin hood style handouts is not new either. It's basically how feudalism used to work. Capitalism is reverting to feudalism.

The argument of stimulating the economy also can be used to motivate raising minimum wages; which of course become redundant with a UBI. This is another advantage because it reduces the cost and risk of employing people for employers. They can pay market prices instead of having to overpay a minimum wage for someone that they have to commit to keeping employed long term. It's a big reason why outsourcing to low wage countries is popular. So, UBI can potentially fix this too.

But again, we already have it. All we're talking about here is how to do it better and get more economic effects out of it.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#506
post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of real world experience on a HackerNews UBI discussion is infuriating. Western society's white collar elite are completely unaware of truly how many "sucky" jobs there are in the world that all enable our (currently) superior standard of living. Your entire existence relies on a globalist system of slave level labor producing products from all corners of the world. Automation of every industry is impossible…

> Whos going to: .... The same people who do those jobs now -- mostly immigrants. Only citizens would get UBI. That's why it's really important to have a good minimum wage and protections for those employees, so they don't get abused.

This is basically how it works in Saudi Arabia. Citizens are guaranteed a job where they can get away with doing nothing. If they happen to be fired, they get a monthly stipend until the government finds them another job. As a result, most of the real work is done by immigrants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_workers_in_Saudi_Arabi...

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#507

A UBI paid for with a carbon tax would both save us from the worst consequences of global warming and stimulate the economy. It's hard to find a rational excuse for not doing it. Planet Money did a great episode on this idea over 7 years ago: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/07/12/201502003/epis... They did a followup 5 years later: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/07/18/630267782/epis... It seems like…

Carbon tax isn’t a sustainable source of revenue. The whole point of a carbon tax is to reach carbon neutral, at which point there’s no carbon tax revenue.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#508

In the future, robots theoretically can do everything, and yes ubi would be needed. What level are we at now? I don't think a ubi should be very much, maybe a dollar a day. Maybe 2. Considering we have all the other social programs for needy people. 5 bucks a day, who knows. The problem is people wanting to start it at some real high number.

If robots did everything, then prices would fall. The effort required to obtain goods would be less.

CB money printing and UBI would prevent this prosperity.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#509
How employers would reason when their employees start getting UBI? "Hmm, I was paying my employees say $1000/mo that was barely enough to survive. Now government gives them $500/mo. That means that I can can subtract $500/mo from their salary".

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#510
post #419

A UBI paid for with a carbon tax would both save us from the worst consequences of global warming and stimulate the economy. It's hard to find a rational excuse for not doing it. Planet Money did a great episode on this idea over 7 years ago: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/07/12/201502003/epis... They did a followup 5 years later: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/07/18/630267782/epis... It seems like…

One of my best friends is an academic economist working in this space, so while I won’t pretend to be an expert, I have spent a goodly amount of time discussing this with one. With no disrespect intended to you personally, this policy you propose makes no sense. Without putting words in your mouth, it looks to me like “two things I as a progressive like the idea of”, rather than a coherent economic policy. Carbon tax…

Honestly only way to address this is more intrusive data collection, so like the first X no of essentials you purchase will not have carbon tax (based on sustainable lifestyle calculations) while everything thereafter will be have it. It could be something like a tax deduction i presume ?
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