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Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

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Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#501

Post by digitaltrees »

MiroF wrote: post #257
toomuchtodo wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food, non-perishables, fuel? Yes. Firearms and ammo? To each their own. We did, but we're more rural. Our concern is a supply chain meltdown when you have millions infected and sick. I would rather be prepared and not need something, then need something and not be prepared.

> Our concern is a supply chain meltdown when you have millions infected and sick. This is an absurdist prediction - we are looking at maximum 2 million 75+ year olds dying with some much smaller number of people of different ages. This is the group least likely to be involved in the day-to-day functioning of our supply chains. Honestly, where are people coming up with these doomsday predictions?

Because countries are shutting their borders and we have a tightly coupled network. Add to that decades of streamlining logistics to avoid any inventory and consistent dividends and stock buy backs that make scaling up additional capacity difficult and you can quickly see disruption.

If this triggers a financial crisis, then working capital can disappear so even if capacity exists liquidity won’t and there won’t be enough purchase power to float inventory.

I worked at the best corporate bankruptcy law firm in the country in 2008. I can tell you there was a real concern that lack of liquidity would result in grocery stores not having food for extended periods from lacking working capital. That can happen fast.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#502

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #208
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're down to a one income household now and my company has already let people go. I've been foolish with my money and kept it all liquid until now so the market drop didn't hurt my reserves, but I'm painfully aware I'm one job loss away from slowly going destitue and homeless.

You have been very wise with your money. The stock market has been over-valued for years and now you have a safety net.

Thank you. I hope so.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#503

Post by rckoepke »

gwd wrote: post #78
TeMPOraL wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?

Remember that 100 years ago, and then again 80 years ago, large percentages of men in Europe were removed from their own countries and sent somewhere else; ships transporting food and supplies were actively sunk, houses and factories were bombed to smithereens. In spite of the massive economic damage that caused, civilization did not descend into anarchy, and very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death. CO…

>very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death [during WWII].

If it's relevant, 3 million people in India died due to widespread starvation during World War 2 caused by British colonial and war-time policies. Additionally all their cloth production was used by the British war effort, so many Indians went without clothes during that period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943#Cloth_fa...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#504

Post by digitaltrees »

blihp wrote: post #392
TeMPOraL wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, well, I unnecessarily asked my question in the indirect way. What I meant is: what do we expect to see? Wars and famines, or just little hardship? Or something in between? I've done some preparations over a month ago, but these were preparations for a short-term supply chain disruption. Not for what increasingly seems like a global economic meltdown.

Obviously it's impossible to say for certain. This was/is a relatively controlled economic crash landing. The decision was made to take the plane from 30,000 feet to the runway in record time. So everyone has bumps and bruises, some are going to have broken bones and a few may die as a result of their injuries... but that was the best option available at the time. Personally, I find this a lot less scary than '08. Th…

2008 started in 2007, things move slow until they don’t. Banks are just as leveraged as they were then. They started doing many of the same things they did then in recent years. They are stronger in part because of the stress tests and implications fed back stop they are counting on so luckily the won’t likely panic and stop lending to each other. But make no mistake. If mortgages and credit cards start to default their balance sheets have limits on what they can with stand. Tightly coupled systems implode quickly even with small changes.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#505

Post by koheripbal »

apatters wrote: post #458
stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

If the unemployment rate continues to rise at this pace (about 7% every two weeks), it will match the peak during the Great Depression (25%) around the end of April. That's 40 million people who will have no income and likely no health care in the middle of a pandemic. Not sure how to process this information honestly.

You cannot simply extrapolate trends ad infinitum.

You have to look at the vulnerable industries, and assume percentage of those jobs will be lost, up to the limit of that industry.

...but certainly, the longer everyone stays home, the more industries will be sucked into the void.

Ultimately, we will have no choice but to advise people to go back to their lives, despite the risks.

The government does not have the ability to bail out every single industry in the economy.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#506

Post by grey-area »

standardUser wrote: post #500
grey-area wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most places are seeing increasing rates of infection, even in spite of extreme measures. I'm not suggesting it's magic, just that it's more infectious than a common cold, which is pretty hard to avoid in winter where I live at least. I agree that could be worded better (I'll leave it up since you've replied), but I meant it's hard to avoid if you're going shopping every few days - people are not good at infection con…

Unfortunately, it's really, really hard to say anything concrete about the transmission rate. Testing is different everywhere, and usually far too limited, and we know there are a lot of asymptomatic cases. But, if we accept some big caveats, it certainly looks like the transmission rates in locked down regions are dramatically reduced. People are still going to the store, ordering food delivery, going for walks and…

Yes sure, probably we won't know much concrete till well after this is past.

I'm encouraged by the progress in Italy, but don't see how you can avoid having most of the population catch this in the long term without a vaccine. It appears to be very hard to control even with really draconian quarantines which only have an impact after weeks and cannot realistically hold for more than a a few months, esp in poorer countries. I'm not saying don't quarantine, it's essential to avoid really horrific deaths, just that it may not stop the majority getting it in within a year or so.

If it mutates of course that's another problem but this disease is so virulent and the economic damage of effective countermeasures is so disastrous that I cannot believe the world will not prioritise mass vaccinations when that arrives and eliminate it whatever the cost.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#507

Post by koheripbal »

kazen44 wrote: post #450
tachyonbeam wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it's really not PC to talk about this (how dare you value money over human lives!?), but at what point does the economic damage this causes become too much? 15% joblessness would be ~50M americans. If just 0.1% of them commit suicide as a result of losing their jobs or businesses, that would be 50,000 dead. Maybe there's some kind of intermediate between forcing everyone to stay home and not having any mitigat…

the problem with your statement that NOT doing any of the counter measures (like self isolation) would result in the overloading of the healthcare system and many people dying. (heck, the healthcare system in the US seems to be overloaded already). When you have no further option for healthcare because the system is broken and overloaded, why would going into work make any sense if it resulted in either an period of…

Because the vast majority of people under the retirement age resolve the illness in a week or two without the need for healthcare assistance.

The people who need to be locked-down are those over 60 - not the entire population.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#508

Post by skrtskrt »

digitaltrees wrote: post #493
hoorayimhelping wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know those signs we memed the hell out of last decade? They're so cliched that they don't mean anything anymore, but think of those. Keep calm and carry on You should relax. We're not the first humans to see some hardship. Everything isn't going to fall apart because the economy has a downturn. Society isn't going to collapse because of this. It didn't happen in the 1600s, nor the 1700s, nor the 1800s, nor the 19…

While all of that is true, it can be very painful for most people. These types of events almost invariably lead to social unrest which compounds the problem. Ambitious and unscrupulous leaders in government and businesses will use this to undermine many of the norms we take for granted. What is clear is that people are underestimating this crisis, no one wants to think we are in a WWII level moment, and so we don’t a…

Hopefully we have the chance to undermine the horrific norm of employer-based private healthcare in the US

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#509

Post by abfan1127 »

vonmoltke wrote: post #497
abfan1127 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except the Spanish Flu killed more than World War 1 and 2 combined (est. 50 million dead from Spanish Flu)...

World War II alone killed 70MM - 85MM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties Also, 50MM for the Spanish flu is the top end of reasonable estimates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe

you're right. Thanks for the correction.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#510

Post by chewz »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #369
chewz wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are far more deaths in Italy and France then statistics show... > On Tuesday night, the health authority in the Grand Est region said two-thirds of its 620 old people’s homes had been affected by the coronavirus pandemic and 570 residents had died. > Those 570 people are not recorded in France’s official coronavirus death toll, which reached 4,032 on April 1, but so far counts only those who have died in hospit…

I was under the impression that Italy did test for covid also post-mortem? there were claims here couple days back that this was the case (and a claim that apparently Germany didn't). if that's the case then how could the numbers be different?

France today adjusted it's toll by 884 including deaths in nursing homes

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france...

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