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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#501
post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't we also free to trade amongst ourselves during a market circuit breaker event?

Yes, but it's much, much slower to trade directly than through a market-maker in the exchange

how does one actually technically go about that? I have no plans to do it, just been curious about it over the past few months.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2% of humanity is absolutely, in no way, shape or form about to die. The Korean numbers are approaching 0.5% case fatality rate, and those numbers continue to fall. It's about the same as the flu, and no, the flu isn't killing 2% of humanity either. Y'all need to settle down and get back to work.

I fully expect South Korea to be an outlier in this respect.

The WHO is reporting 0.6% in China excluding Wuhan so probably not.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#503

Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.

The trading halt is a result of previously established exchange rules. It's not a manipulation, it's a guardrail that is visible to every market participant.

If the price is going to go lower for an organic reason, it will go lower regardless of a brief delay.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#504
post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

Your statement is true if you just blindly invest in an index, times like this you need to invest in a trend but is more difficult.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#505

The market was up over 30% last year, but GDP growth was certainly not 30%.

This is a similar indicator but potentially a better one than just GDP: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPROFIT

If you overlap it with the stock market, the only other time in US history where stock continued to go up for multiple years where corporate profit stagnated is 1999. Normally the stock market and corp profits line up somewhat strongly.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#506
post #459
post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

On the other hand, it's also possible that the CV will recede in the summer, and that will very likely make the markets bounce back. To quote Carl Sagan, prophecy is a lost art.

The market already was showing signs of problems, the CV was just what broke the camel's back.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#507
post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

As an investor, if you believe the market is going to drop, there are various ways to profit from this. One of the easiest is buying ETFs that move inversely to certain market indexes (shorts them). For example, SH [0] is an ETF that moves inversely proportional to the S&P 500 index. So if the S&P 500 is down 2%, SH goes up 2%. More exciting are the leveraged ETFs that track double or triple the underlying index. SDS…

Inverse or leveraged ETFs are terrible for anyone except for day traders. You can't buy and hold them, because they degrade over time, especially the leveraged ETFs. If you really want to short, then short the stock directly with proper stop losses or buy puts, but options are very complicated with various types of premium, most importantly time premium which also causes prices to degrade.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#508
post #465
post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

When China put 10% of the worlds population on travel restrictions, a put on SPY with a strike of 300 expiring this Friday was 29 cents. The optimism is frankly unbelievable.

A few weeks ago, I spent $730 to buy 73 SPY put option contracts expiring this Friday with a strike of $270, so about 10 cents per share. Unbelievable. I've been selling them over the last week and just finished getting out today with a realized gain of about $30k.

Wish I had put $50k in instead of $1k, but I suppose that's always the lament when an ultra-risky trade goes your way :)

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#509

The market was up over 30% last year, but GDP growth was certainly not 30%.

Here's a simple thought exercise.

If your company produced the same product, but for less money. Would the company be worth more?

If your ownership increased via buy back, would your holdings increase in value?

If your debts were financed at a lower average rate would the value of your company go up ? (sort of a sub case of expenses)

These are some of the myriad of ways that a portfolio can move in disconnect from GDP.

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