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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#501

Post by SkyBelow »

tempguy9999 wrote: post #400
SkyBelow wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt and I only take his tax returns and financial statements. See how this level of discussion of not just demanding a citation, but then limiting what citations you accept to an extremely small set of documents isn't constructive?

> If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt It's a reasonable question, but 1 minute googling got this report https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kendalltaggart/here-are... with 3 of them viz. The Trump Taj Mahal Casino Trump’s Plaza The Trump Castle Are these at least sufficient to convince you?

You missed the part where I was (sarcastically) demanding the proof in a specific form that I know the reader doesn't have. It is one thing to say [citation needed]. It is quite another to say [citiation needed and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements].

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#502

Post by mattdeboard »

Godel_unicode wrote: post #71
mattdeboard wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no. also there is no "popularization." it's just a historical pattern.

That's absolutely not the case The Yield Curve is now talked about on nightly news shows and it used to be only known about by economists and people in finance. It's completely legitimate to question whether this increase in publicity for this one metric might be causing it to be less useful.

You're completely right. It was a really bad comment on my part. Thanks for correcting it.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#503

Post by jermaustin1 »

wil421 wrote: post #23
jermaustin1 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm 40% in cash, 50% in S&P and 10% in small-cap. The last few months, all of my contributions have been going into cash, so that when the fall happens, I can hopefully scoop up a deal.

Let’s talk in 10 years and see if your cash will beat my S&P allocation.

I just sold half of my holdings to have cash for the inevitable dip thats coming

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#504

Post by vkou »

jjwhitaker wrote: post #451
kkotak wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Akin to - "It always rains on my birthday. It's raining today - it must be my birthday."

It's more like: "It only rains on my birthday. It's raining today - it must be my birthday." At least I'm not aware of any inversions of the 10-2 bond yield curve in the last 50 years that was not followed by a recession, however minor.

There have been inversions in the X - Y bond yield curve in the last 50 years that were sometimes followed, and sometimes not followed by recessions.

You didn't come to the number 10 - 2 independently. It was cherry-picked to fit the narrative.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#505

Post by walshemj »

dobleboble wrote: post #355
JeremyNT wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

Also the inertia caused by having 52 states all with different laws probably has made for more of an impact.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#506

Post by walshemj »

ben_jones wrote: post #373
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

I think the rational definition of Deep State is just the government “lifers” who stay in significant spheres of influence for most of their career. I.e. key defense, intelligence, financial, etc positions.

Not really most of the senior civil service are political appointees in the USA.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#507

Post by paganel »

0xffff2 wrote: post #466
paganel wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back in 2008, just after the Lehman collapse had happened and when money-market funds had gone bellow 0 (I think in late October), I predicted that there was a very great chance to have a world war in the next decade because of that ongoing crisis. Fortunately it looks like I was wrong, but it also looks that “liberal democracy” is on its way out in many former bastions of said democracy. I fear that a new nasty rece…

War with whom over what exactly? Maybe it's just a failure of imagination on my part, but I really can't picture a scenario that leads to another world war, even in today's relatively unstable political climate.

I don't know, just war.

> but I really can't picture a scenario that leads to another world war, even in today's relatively unstable political climate.

Ten years ago I bet almost no-one was picturing the late-1980s anti-nuclear treaties going the way of the Dodo bird. Or a land war in Europe (Ukraine is indeed in Europe). Or German politicians being shot for their political beliefs. Or British politicians being shot for their political beliefs. Ten years ago I wasn't seeing US soldiers and their trucks almost every time I take the highway in order to visit my parents in the countryside (I live in an Eastern-European country and NATO member, a geo-political stone's thrown away from Russia). Ten years ago Russia wasn't testing a nuclear-fueled rocket.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#508

Post by [deleted] »

mwfunk wrote: post #262
skrowl wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He made billions of dollars in real estate and other industries, then when on to become POTUS. HOW CAN ONE MAN BE SO INCOMPETENT!?!

WRT making billions of dollars, clearly he didn't. WRT getting elected, he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC. WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. By completely obvious I mean, the-sky-is-blue, 1+1=2 obvious. That's how obvious…

[deleted]

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#509

Post by scotty79 »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

> ...thought that they could model him as a rational actor

That's more optimistic than 'let's assume spherical cow in vacuum'

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#510

Post by [deleted] »

jbay808 wrote: post #214
roymurdock wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My question is what is the point of the trade war. What does trump get from initiating/escalating it, or who is directing him to do it. Seems to be a net negative for all sectors of the economy.

I would have guessed that it's an attempt to make other US-friendly countries (Vietnam, Phillipines, India, etc) relatively more attractive as places to set up factories, to move that manufacturing base out of China and reduce their geopolitical influence.

[deleted]
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